2025 General Election: What’s happened, and what happens next
By Anton Brands & Adam van Houten
ABV News in Harlingen & Enschede
May 1, 2025
Johannes van der Capellen’s Sociaal-Democratische Partij (SDP) has secured a second consecutive majority in the Parliament of Aubervijr following yesterday’s general election, with voters delivering a resounding endorsement of his leadership and party’s direction.
Van der Capellen, visibly elated during a late-night interview on the eve of election day with ABV’s Saskia Garritsen.
Van der Capellen praised his party’s performance while speaking to supporters gathered outside Het Kanselierhuis; the Chancellor’s official residence in Harlingen. “We stood by the people, and they stood by us,” he said, raising a glass with senior cabinet members in what observers described as a confident but humble victory appearance.
While both the Conservatieve Hervormingspartij and the Arbeidsfront gained seats compared to the 2021 election, they fell short of unseating the SDP, which retained its dominant position in the 1,200-seat legislature with 382 seats.
In a speech delivered from the Kanseliersterras just after sunrise, Van der Capellen struck a statesmanlike tone:
“I am glad the Aubervijan people have placed their trust and faith in this government. It is clear to see that we have - and will continue to - serve you, the people, to the utmost of our ability.” He went on to promise an “acceleration” of the country’s ongoing period of unprecedented economic growth, pledging continued investment in infrastructure, healthcare, and educational reform.
President Coenraad van Rijckevorsel released a brief statement congratulating Van der Capellen and the SDP on their victory, calling the result “a clear mandate” and stating that he looks forward to “continued, constructive cooperation.”
The President gave a warm address despite his stoneface expression throughout.
A Leader Who Won the Nation
Since taking office in 2021, Johannes van der Capellen has steadily grown into one of Aubervijr’s most recognisable and respected political figures.
Born in Enschede to a middle-class family, his father a civil engineer, his mother a university lecturer, Johannes initially served as a military legal advisor, before moving into academia as a constitutional law professor. He entered politics in his late 30s, quickly rising through the ranks of the SDP thanks to his legal precision, dry wit, and refusal to engage in the kind of political showmanship that characterised the previous decade.
“Van der Capellen made his voters proud with how he ran the country,” said ABV’s chief political correspondent, Lambert Baack. “We spoke to hundreds of voters across April, and the consensus was striking: they described him as impossible to rattle.”
Policy, Pragmatism, and Power
Van der Capellen’s first term was defined by fiscal pragmatism and social moderation. His government introduced reforms to streamline bureaucracy and reduce inefficiencies while maintaining key welfare protections, a balancing act that earned him praise from moderates across the spectrum.
He is known for emphasising “measurable progress over ideological noise”, and famously quipped that “coalitions are not dinner parties, they’re rescue missions”, a line that has since become shorthand for his no-nonsense leadership style.
Even rivals within the CH and Arbeidsfront have acknowledged his debating skills, describing his tone as “calm, sardonic, and razor-sharp”. His ability to defuse tension with subtle humour, coupled with his mastery of parliamentary procedure, has made him a formidable presence in the Huis.
Within the SDP, Van der Capellen is widely seen as the unifying force that brought the party back from the brink of fragmentation; a stabilising leader in an era that had been marked by coalition volatility and voter fatigue.
Reactions from Opposition Leaders
Reactions from opposition leaders arrived swiftly following the confirmation of the SDP’s landslide victory. Gregoor Dejaeghere, leader of the Conservatieve Hervormingspartij (CH) — now confirmed as the second-largest party in the Parliament — issued a formal statement within minutes of the final tally:
“I’d like to congratulate Johannes and his party on their comprehensive victory in tonight’s election. The electorate has spoken, and we respect that result.”
He continued: “I also want to take this moment to thank all those who placed their trust in the CH. We’ve made significant gains, and we do not take that support lightly. We will continue to stand firm on our principles of economic responsibility, national cohesion, and cultural continuity, and we will not waver in our duty to hold this government accountable.”
Dejaeghere’s tone was respectful but unmistakably resolute, signaling the CH’s intention to assert itself more forcefully over the next term as the SDP’s principal challenger.
Meanwhile, Lillian Evenepoel, leader of the Arbeidsfront, now Parliament’s third largest party, delivered her own remarks from party headquarters in Deventer. Speaking before a modest but energized crowd of supporters, Evenepoel struck a more impassioned tone:
“To the people of Aubervijr - thank you. We’ve grown in strength, in clarity, and in voice. We may not have won tonight, but we have been heard.”
“I congratulate Chancellor Van der Capellen and his party on their result. But let it be clear; this election was not a blank cheque. Millions of Aubervijans voted for change, for labour, for dignity. We will stand in Parliament with courage, and we will fight every step of the way to deliver a just economy and a fairer society.”
Evenepoel congratulating her colleagues on a strong result in last night’s elections.
Evenepoel’s speech was received with chants of “arbeid! arbeid!” from the crowd, and her party’s internal figures expressed satisfaction at their consistent upward momentum since the 2017 collapse. Analysts expect the Arbeidsfront to be a louder voice in Parliament, especially on cost-of-living and housing issues.
So, What’s Next?
With the Sociaal-Democratische Partij securing a decisive lead in Parliament, attention now shifts to the business of governance. Despite Chancellor Johannes van der Capellen’s enduring popularity and reputation for competence, the SDP has fallen well short of an outright majority. 382 seats out of 1,200 tells a clear story: voters admire him, but Aubervijr’s political terrain remains fragmented, pluralistic, and ideologically diverse.
The result is commanding but far from conclusive. Van der Capellen now faces a strategic crossroads: attempt to govern as a minority with tactical support from smaller parties, or pursue a confidence-and-supply framework that offers more predictable legislative stability without the full entanglements of coalition government.
Our political analysts believe Van der Capellen will opt for the latter; confidence-and-supply agreements with liberal and centrist parties, particularly the Centristische Messianisten, the Nationale Eenheidspartij, the Vakbondspartij, Jonge Aubervijr and perhaps Groene Beweging. All share broad alignment with the SDP on fiscal pragmatism, institutional reform, and progressive-but-measured social policy. These arrangements would allow the SDP to maintain policy leadership while securing issue-based support on major legislative packages; housing, energy, infrastructure, welfare recalibration, and beyond.
However, Van der Capellen will govern under heightened scrutiny. The Conservatieve Hervormingspartij has emerged as a resurgent force, doubling its presence in Parliament and consolidating the centre-right opposition. Meanwhile, the Arbeidsfront continues to galvanise support among the lower middle class and organised labour.
The next few weeks promise negotiations behind closed doors as Van der Capellen and his team shape their second-term agendas, form key alliances and prepare the next Cabinet. Key policy questions loom, from housing reform and continued energy independence to infrastructure expansion and welfare recalibration. With the electorate delivering a vote of confidence but not carte blanche, the Chancellor is expected to lead with a pragmatic, consensus-driven approach.
Coalition manoeuvers, cabinet shifts and legislative priorities now dominate the political conversation in Harlingen. The new government is expected to be formally sworn in before the end of the month.
The Cabinet: Who Stays, Who Goes?
Van der Capellen is yet to unveil his second-term cabinet, but our political analysts expect it to be familiar. Of course, new aspects have to be taken into account; perhaps quiet reshuffling and of course, strategic inclusion. Van der Capellen will retain key loyalists in senior positions while no doubt extending a cautious hand to allied parties who may back his minority government. The previous cabinet was broadly seen as competent and cohesive, with several ministers gaining reputations for effectiveness and discretion. Many are expected to return, while others may be moved or dismissed depending on political strategy and cooperational demands.
So, who stays?
- Wilco Faber, Van der Capellen’s Deputy, right-hand man and most trusted ally, will almost certainly retain his position.
- Minister of Finance, Arend Bouwman, credited with managing the Republic’s strong fiscal record, is expected to retain his role.
- Minister of State for Defence and National Security, Coen Stegeman, is unlikely to be moved amid continued continental uncertainty.
- Melanie Peeters, Minister of State for Social Policy and Labour, earned praise for her reforms in worker protections and welfare optimisation, and is expected to retain her role.
- Minister of State for Culture, Sport and National Identity, Samuel Lenssen, remains a key bridge to nationalist-liberal factions and is seen as ideologically dependable. He too, is likely to retain his role.
Behind the speeches, press conferences and votes lies the quiet engine room of the SDP: Johannes van der Capellen and Wilco Faber, pictured above.
Who may be reshuffled or promoted?
- Christian Naessens, currently Minister of Trade and Industry, may be promoted to a Minister of State role, possibly taking over Economic Development or Finance in the long term.
- Jakob Stenvers, Minister of Justice, may be moved or replaced amid recent judicial controversies. Our political insiders suggest Sara Koelmans, current deputy minister to Stenvers, is the front-runner to succeed him. Another name that has been suggested is Marinus de Wilde, a former judge turned Member of Parliament. He has had extensive experience with sentencing policy.
- Sophie Molenaar, Minister of Health, could shift to a higher-profile post after deftly managing recent healthcare reforms. However, some suggest Van der Capellen wants someone experienced and loyal to keep these reforms going, indicating she may instead stay in her position.
New faces?
- Lillian Sinnaeve, currently the Presidential Envoy, has been tipped to receive a more prominent ministerial role due to her rising profile within the SDP.
- Thomas Fonteyn, a senior figure within the Vaksbondspartij, may be appointed to reflect the party’s expected confidence-and-supply alliances. Vicky Manders is a name from the Centristische Messianisten that has been mentioned.
Portfolios under scrutiny?
- Ministries such as Tourism, Sport and Media may see consolidation or reshuffling, especially as Van der Capellen pursues efficiency across government departments.
- A renewed focus on Energy and Housing could lead to expanded responsibilities or the appointment of new councils or committees.
What will the new government tackle first?
Though alliance-building will occupy much of the coming weeks, ABV’s political desk understands that several major policy areas are already being drawn up behind the scenes.
Top of the list, as stated earlier, is housing. With urban affordability continuing to strain lower and middle-income families, the SDP is expected to revive a shelved 2023 housing bill that would expand public and private development incentives while simultaneously tightening speculation regulations. A renewed National Housing Accord is expected to be tabled before summer recess.
Energy independence is another pressing issue. Aubervijr’s slow transition away from imported fossil fuels over the past decade has accelerated since 2017, but supply instability during last winter’s cold snap revealed gaps in resilience. The Ministry of Energy is likely to prioritise new subsidies for wind and nuclear capacity, alongside fast-tracked infrastructure projects in key coastal regions,
Education reform is also set to return to the floor. While the SDP’s first term focused on higher education investment, their second will likely expand support for vocational training and regional universities, with emphasis on digital skills, research innovation and rural access.
On the fiscal front, Van der Capellen is expected to maintain his cautious, balanced approach. Though pressure from the Arbeidsfront may push the government to increase spending on healthcare and pensions, insiders expect the Chancellor to hold the line on deficit targets, opting for measured social investment over sweeping overhauls.
In addition, several administrative efficiency reforms are being finalised. These include digitalisation of civil services, restructuring of interministerial councils, and potential changes to how regional funds are allocated to underperforming provinces.
None of this will be without difficulty. Even with broad policy alignment among supporting parties, Van der Capellen’s government will need to navigate a deeply fragmented Parliament, and a revitalised opposition eager to exploit any misstep.
But if the SDP’s second term mirrors the first, observers expect progress to continue, as it has done for the past four years; quiet, pragmatic and unmistakably Aubervijan.
Many parties already have their eyes set on the 2029 elections. Van der Capellen will be constitutionally obligated to step-down from party leadership, in accordance with the two-term limit. But for the next four years, Aubervijr is, once again, Social Democratic.