The Big Exciting Santonian Referendum of 2020

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Hunter Kidlington de Collobrières @HunterKidColl ✅Follow •••
Proposition 5: The Huisne and the Saulx vote down META. NO in the lead... barely.
Huisne (50): 45.00% YES | 49.64% NO | 5.35% Abstain
Saulx (80): 46.02% YES | 48.35% NO | 5.63% Abstain
#STGReferendum2020

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5,155 likes
6m ago



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Nicholas-Martin Delerestraint @nm_delerestraint ✅Follow •••
ARE. YOU. F*CKING. KIDDING. ME??? Two-thirds of the vote in, and the margin is eleven votes? ELEVEN!!! #STGReferendum2020
5m ago • Reply

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Kyle MacTaggart-de Flesselles @KyleMdeFlesselles ✅Follow •••
Eleven people must've been ruing their votes right now. #STGReferendum2020
3m ago • Reply

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Anne-Marcelline de Saint-Corentin @AMStCorentin ✅Follow •••
This is why folks, we encourage you to vote. Your votes DO count. #STGReferendum2020
4m ago • Reply

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Finnbjörn Mösgaard @FinnbjornMosgaard ✅Follow •••
@BGKermadec What if the vote is tied after the counting? Do they toss a coin? #STGReferendum2020
3m ago • Reply

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Brice-Gauthier Kermadec @BGKermadec ✅Follow •••
Never had that happened in any Santonian referendum or election, and so our laws do not have contingencies for that. #STGReferendum2020
1m ago • Reply
 
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Hunter Kidlington de Collobrières @HunterKidColl ✅Follow •••
Proposition 5: The Aulne returns YES to top despite the Haute-Bléone voting NO.
Aulne (19): 51.82% YES | 42.67% NO | 5.51% Abstain
Haute-Bléone (26): 46.20% YES | 48.30% NO | 5.50% Abstain
#STGReferendum2020

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3,165 likes
4m ago



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Nicholas-Martin Delerestraint @nm_delerestraint ✅Follow •••
Another southern department voting NO. #STGReferendum2020
2m ago • Reply
 
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Hunter Kidlington de Collobrières @HunterKidColl ✅Follow •••
Proposition 5: The Bouche-du-Rhâne and the Rance vote YES.
Bouche-du-Rhâne (29): 47.67% YES | 46.64% NO | 5.69% Abstain
Rance (70): 52.33% YES | 42.60% NO | 5.07% Abstain
#STGReferendum2020

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3,165 likes
3m ago



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Brice-Gauthier Kermadec @BGKermadec ✅Follow •••
A relief for the YES camp that the largest southern department, the Bouche-du-Rhâne, voted YES, albeit by the slimmest of margins. The story of the Bouche-du-Rhâne is the reverse of many central departments. Although the city of Nyon and its suburbs gave a weak NO, the other rural intendances plopped with YES, with Rancennes giving 51.6% YES vote.

With the vote in the Rance, all seven northwestern Bethanian departments had given a big YES vote. Clearly Foreign Minister Marcelline Tréhet (who is from that region) has a big influence there. #STGReferendum2020
Just now • Reply
 
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Hunter Kidlington de Collobrières @HunterKidColl ✅Follow •••
Proposition 5: The Sarine piles a 370K lead for YES.
#STGReferendum2020

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3,206 likes
3m ago



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Brice-Gauthier Kermadec @BGKermadec ✅Follow •••
Much of the Sarine's YES vote came from the city of Bâle, which, unlike other eastern cities like Côme (Simbruins), Coire (Haine), Plaisance (Corb), and Novale (Basses-Alpes), remained with the Coalition in 2019. The more rural intendancies of the Sarine actually were split: Calvaire, Chiètres, and Payerne gave a slight YES vote; Bressaucourt and Vallauris voted NO. #STGReferendum2020
Just now • Reply
 
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Hunter Kidlington de Collobrières @HunterKidColl ✅Follow •••
Proposition 5: The Simbruins gives a close YES vote.
#STGReferendum2020

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3,623 likes
3m ago



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Brice-Gauthier Kermadec @BGKermadec ✅Follow •••
The vote of the former stronghold of the Coalition, the city of Côme, was a languid YES. It barely outvoted the rest of the department, which voted NO. Some intendances, such as Jaillons and Salernes (!) voted NO by a majority. Salernes is also interesting - its countryside voted YES by a slim majority, but the city of Salernes itself voted majority NO. This pattern (countryside YES, city NO) mirrors that of the department of Bouche-du-Rhâne. #STGReferendum2020
Just now • Reply
 
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Hunter Kidlington de Collobrières @HunterKidColl ✅Follow •••
Proposition 5: The Breuse votes strongly YES.
#STGReferendum2020

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3,506 likes
3m ago
 
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Hunter Kidlington de Collobrières @HunterKidColl ✅Follow •••
Proposition 5: The Argens vote YES, completing a sea of southern YES.
#STGReferendum2020

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3,761 likes
3m ago



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Brice-Gauthier Kermadec @BGKermadec ✅Follow •••
Hunter is right. Despite the initial hiccup with the Vôges, all but four (the Vôges, the Haute-Bléone, the Haut-Rhâne, the Haute-Saine) of the 23 southern departments voted YES. #STGReferendum2020
Just now • Reply
 
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Hunter Kidlington de Collobrières @HunterKidColl ✅Follow •••
Proposition 5: The Trieux piles on the YES margin.
#STGReferendum2020

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3,805 likes
3m ago



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Brice-Gauthier Kermadec @BGKermadec ✅Follow •••
Not surprising for a Coalition-voting department. Even its National Party deputies were in favour of META. #STGReferendum2020
Just now • Reply

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Nicholas-Martin Delerestraint @nm_delerestraint ✅Follow •••
Declaration imminent from the Semois. How this department votes may be an indicator of how the city of Saintes votes. #STGReferendum2020
Just now • Reply
 
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Hunter Kidlington de Collobrières @HunterKidColl ✅Follow •••
Proposition 5: The Semois votes massively in favour of META, pushing the YES margin to above one million, the largest margin to date.
#STGReferendum2020

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3,922 likes
7m ago



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Anne-Marcelline de Saint-Corentin @AMStCorentin ✅Follow •••
The Semois was always going to be a shoo-in for YES. With how close this vote has been, a one million vote majority may be difficult to overturn. #STGReferendum2020
6m ago • Reply

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Nicholas-Martin Delerestraint @nm_delerestraint ✅Follow •••
I bet my balls that YES will win Prop 5. #STGReferendum2020
5m ago • Reply

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Kyle MacTaggart-de Flesselles @KyleMdeFlesselles ✅Follow •••
Which balls? :P
4m ago • Reply

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Nicholas-Martin Delerestraint @nm_delerestraint ✅Follow •••
Oh shut up. :)
The only remaining departments to report are the Coalition-voting Chartreuse, the Prime Minister's home department of the Saine-et-Loine, cosmopolitan Saintes, and the eastern department of the Haine. I predict all four will vote YES. #STGReferendum2020
3m ago • Reply

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Finnbjörn Mösgaard @FinnbjornMosgaard ✅Follow •••
Declaration from the Chartreuse is imminent. Only waiting for several precincts in the cities of Gresible and Bienne, and in the three small communes of Saint-Gérard-de-Chartreuse, Voiron, and Pontneuf-sur-Bourne. Currently, NO has a slight lead in the Chartreuse. With the map looking red, will the Chartreuse vote NO?​
2m ago • Reply

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Brice-Gauthier Kermadec @BGKermadec ✅Follow •••
Look at that sea of red in the Chartreuse mountains. The NO is weaker in the intendancies within the department of Chartreuse than in the surrounding departments. It depends on the cities of Gresible and Bienne, as the small 8K NO lead can be easily overturned. Hold your Chartreuse wine folks, this is going to be exciting. #STGReferendum2020
Just now • Reply
 
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Hunter Kidlington de Collobrières @HunterKidColl ✅Follow •••
Proposition 5: The Chartreuse enters a YES vote.
#STGReferendum2020

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3,922 likes
7m ago



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Brice-Gauthier Kermadec @BGKermadec ✅Follow •••
Despite how the initial votes from the Chartreuse looked like, the department as a whole had given another boost to YES, thanks to the big YES majorities in the cities of Gresible and Bienne. #STGReferendum2020
6m ago • Reply

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Finnbjörn Mösgaard @FinnbjornMosgaard ✅Follow •••
It looks like the Saine-et-Loine will be the next closest to reporting its result. This is the current situation in the Saine-et-Loine. Its more rural southern intendancies are giving out a slight NO vote, with the larger intendancies of Lanthenay, Royan, and Surgères still pending. The cities are still to report their votes. Of the department's large cities, Bicêtre gave a YES majority but was outvoted by the rest of its mainly rural intendancy. Whether the Saine-et-Loine will follow the trend of the Chartreuse remains to be seen.​
6m ago • Reply

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Nicholas-Martin Delerestraint @nm_delerestraint ✅Follow •••
I'm calling it now for the YES. I expect the remaining three departments to turn out massively for YES. #STGReferendum2020
6m ago • Reply

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Kyle MacTaggart-de Flesselles @KyleMdeFlesselles ✅Follow •••
Including the Saine-et-Loine? Doesn't look likely.​
5m ago • Reply

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Nicholas-Martin Delerestraint @nm_delerestraint ✅Follow •••
It's the home department of the Prime Minister and it used to be a Coalition-voting department. From what Finn posted, I'm predicting that while Lanthenay will vote NO, but Surgères and Royan will vote YES. #STGReferendum2020
4m ago • Reply

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Kyle MacTaggart-de Flesselles @KyleMdeFlesselles ✅Follow •••
Royan? You mean this intendancy that is all red now? Because this is how it looks like at the moment:​
2m ago • Reply

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Finnbjörn Mösgaard @FinnbjornMosgaard ✅Follow •••
Bray-sur-Saine, Haute-Rivoire, and Virollet had now finished counting. Only the main cities of Arpajon and Royan remain as holdouts in the intendancy of Royan.​
1m ago • Reply

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Brice-Gauthier Kermadec @BGKermadec ✅Follow •••
Personally, I would loathe to predict that this is over. I would agree that Lanthenay would likely vote NO because it has the same demographics as strongly NO-voting southern Cenise. One might say that the Saine-et-Loine is the Prime Minister's home department, but even her National Assembly district (Saine-et-Loine-21, which covers the intendancy of Charny-sur-Loine and the bulk of the intendancy of Fismes) voted NO. Big uncertainties are with the cities like Royan, Arpajon, Surgères, and Damery, which were all previously Coalition-voting cities like Gresible and Bienne. #STGReferendum2020
1m ago • Reply
 
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Hunter Kidlington de Collobrières @HunterKidColl ✅Follow •••
Proposition 5: The Saine-et-Loine massively rejects META, and overturns the 1.2 million YES lead!! #STGReferendum2020

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2,616 likes
5m ago



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Nicholas-Martin Delerestraint @nm_delerestraint ✅Follow •••
Ouch. #STGReferendum2020
4m ago • Reply

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Anne-Marcelline de Saint-Corentin @AMStCorentin ✅Follow •••
Oh my. The shock and surprise. #STGReferendum2020
4m ago • Reply

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Finnbjörn Mösgaard @FinnbjornMosgaard ✅Follow •••
Even here in the vote-counting hall, there was a wave of awe as the Saine-et-Loine delivered its result and crushed the YES lead. Not so much as they favoured YES, but the sight of a department singlehandedly reversing the largest lead we had all night was downright shocking. #STGReferendum2020
3m ago • Reply

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Brice-Gauthier Kermadec @BGKermadec ✅Follow •••
The Saine-et-Loine's largest cities - Lanthenay, Royan, Surgères, Arpajon, Taillebourg, Damery, Gentilly, and Villemomble all voted NO. Only Bicêtre voted YES narrowly. There is now a crescent of red spanning the western and southern suburbs of Saintes, starting from the Bay of Saine at Aulnay-sous-Saintes, to the Saine River at Royan. It would be unthinkable if the adjacent parts of Saintes would vote differently - already the 10th and 11th arrondissements bordering Cenise voted strongly against META. #STGReferendum2020
2m ago • Reply
 
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Hunter Kidlington de Collobrières @HunterKidColl ✅Follow •••
Proposition 5: The City of Saintes gives a weak YES, not enough to turn the tide. #STGReferendum2020

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3,009 likes
7m ago



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Anne-Marcelline de Saint-Corentin @AMStCorentin ✅Follow •••
It wasn't so much of a big YES that people were expecting. It was more of a whimper of a YES. #STGReferendum2020
6m ago • Reply

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Kyle MacTaggart-de Flesselles @KyleMdeFlesselles ✅Follow •••
From @ChimamandaNwakuba, our correspondent at the Prop 5 YES Campaign HQ in Saintes (translated):
The roller coaster of emotions at the YES camp seems to be ending in tears. #STGReferendum2020
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5m ago • Reply

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Brice-Gauthier Kermadec @BGKermadec ✅Follow •••
The left-bank of Saintes voted against META. The working-class areas of Saintes such as the 10th and 11th arrondissements voted massively NO. The middle-class areas in the southern part of Saintes also voted NO. The NO is especially marked in areas where immigrants from non-META countries are concentrated: precincts in Prydanian-heavy Caulaincourt and Saint-Jourdain, and Hessunlander-heavy Villeperdue and Sainte-Jalle. This vote might have been due to the sentiment that people from non-META countries will be having more difficulty immigrating once Saintonge opens its doors to META.​

Despite Saintes being a (usually) Coalition-voting city, it barely voted YES. On the surface, it should be voting massively YES. But the exit poll shows a substantial chunk of middle-class Coalition voters are voting NO, enough to offset the National voters that were voting YES. This might be multifactorial, but I suspect that the factors involved include the possibility of a downward pressure on wages (because META may affect white-collar wages as well) and unchecked immigration. #STGReferendum2020
3m ago • Reply

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Finnbjörn Mösgaard @FinnbjornMosgaard ✅Follow •••
The last department to still report its vote is the department of the Haine. This is how it looks right now, with the intendancy of Coire still to release its result:​
#STGReferendum2020
6m ago • Reply

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Kyle MacTaggart-de Flesselles @KyleMdeFlesselles ✅Follow •••
Right now we're just waiting for Coire itself and its largest suburb, Courtételle. Interesting that the intendancy’s second-largest commune, Damphreux, voted NO. Currently the running tally in the intendancy is that YES has a 8K lead – still not enough to overturn the 19K NO lead.​
5m ago • Reply

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Nicholas-Martin Delerestraint @nm_delerestraint ✅Follow •••
So you mean to say that the fate of the referendum rests on TWO communes? Wow. @BGKermadec Any predictions? #STGReferendum2020
4m ago • Reply

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Brice-Gauthier Kermadec @BGKermadec ✅Follow •••
The city of Coire is big enough to turn the entire referendum one way or the other. I would be very weary of giving predictions right now. While Coire was a Coalition-voting city, in 2019 it joined the other eastern cities like Côme, Plaisance, and Novale in voting for the Nationals. Former Prime Minister Jean-Louis Hauteclocque de Champtoceaux retained his seat only because he was the leader of the Liberal Party. The other Liberals in the area were voted out - in fact, JLHC is the only remaining Liberal National Assembly deputy from the Haine.​

Eastern Saintonge is different from central Saintonge, in that the rural areas may give a slight YES vote, and the cities may vote NO or just a weak YES. In the intendancy of Salernes (Simbruins), the countryside voted YES, but the city of Salernes itself voted NO. The intendancy of Plaisance (Corb) voted a slight YES, but that's thanks to the YES-voting rural areas outvoting the weak NO from Plaisance city itself. The same dynamic occurred in Bouche-du-Rhâne in the south. If you look at the intendancy of Coire's second-largest city, Damphreux, it voted NO by a majority. If Coire votes similarly, Prop 5 is doomed.​

Right now, there are three possibilities: if Coire votes massively YES, the same way as Bâle (Sarine, the department to the north of the Haine), YES will win. If Coire votes NO, like Damphreux, Plaisance or Nyon, NO will win. If Coire votes a weak YES like Côme or Novale, it depends on how big the YES plurality is. We might be looking at razor-thin majority on either side here. #STGReferendum2020
Just now • Reply
 
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Kyle MacTaggart-de Flesselles @KyleMdeFlesselles ✅Follow •••
Proposition 5: Coire and the Haine puts the OUI in WINNER. #STGReferendum2020

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5,607 likes
7m ago



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Anne-Marcelline de Saint-Corentin @AMStCorentin ✅Follow •••
What an exciting night, boys. After much swinging, the electorate of Saintonge finally settles in for a soft YES vote, with only a 186K margin - roughly 0.2% margin - of YES over the NO. #STGReferendum2020
6m ago • Reply

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Nicholas-Martin Delerestraint @nm_delerestraint ✅Follow •••
Exciting night, indeed. A referendum that had gone down to the wire. The last such election to go this way was 2015's parliamentary elections, when Sarine-5 kept the entire nation in suspense whether the Coalition + Greens will get a two-seat majority or whether there will be a tie. #STGReferendum2020
3m ago • Reply

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Hunter Kidlington de Collobrières @HunterKidColl ✅Follow •••
Courtételle reported a 7K plurality for YES, which was not enough to reverse the nationwide NO majority. And then Coire slapped in a Bâle-style massive 190K margin in favour of YES. #STGReferendum2020
6m ago • Reply

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Brice-Gauthier Kermadec @BGKermadec ✅Follow •••
Coire stayed true to its rightist, cosmopolitan roots. The city of Coire voted 63% YES/32% NO, a margin slightly lower than the city of Bâle in the Sarine. Coire is a city which was an entrepôt of trade in the Middle Ages, with its cathedral dedicated to a foreign saint. Its recent electoral tendencies made it hard to predict though, as we have seen many of the people following this feed tried to do. We've had Facegrammers from as far as Syrixia, Predice, Prydania, Sil Dorsett, and Haor Chall chiming in on their predictions.​

More post-referendum analysis will come in my upcoming article. For now, we will need to rest! #STGReferendum2020
3m ago • Reply

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Finnbjörn Mösgaard @FinnbjornMosgaard ✅Follow •••
The Royal Elections Institute had now certified YES as the winner for Proposition 5. Whether there will be appeal from the NO camp, the NO camp have one week to lodge any complaint. #STGReferendum2020
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Finnbjörn Mösgaard @FinnbjornMosgaard ✅Follow •••
The Santonian electorate passes all five propositions in the referendum - the first four on massive majorities, the last one (on META), passing by a thin margin. #STGReferendum2020

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10,526 likes
4m ago
 
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#STGReferendum2020
Proposition 5 - META Referendum: three hours of votes in 30 seconds
45,203 views • 05 April 2020

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l'Indépendant Mercanti ✅
105,291 subscribers •
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Results of the Kingdom of Saintonge's META referendum, in 30 seconds!



1,290 comments
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