TRANSCRIPT: Den Standkamer Panel Discussion on the Upcoming Election
March 26, 2019
Kari: And we bring you now to
Den Standkamer, to talk about the spectre that is the 2019 federal election- a spectre rapidly growing in size...and shadow. On April 6, Vallanders will be going to the polls to decide the MVs for their districts, as well as senators to represent their cantons. Many people, as usual, are term-limited and many others are running for reelection. On paper it seems like your standard, garden-variety federal election, but with this one, as we all know, there's a lot more at stake and a lot has changed in the last 7 years. I'm Kari Lunde, and with me now is our panel: Anders Grosvaar, political scientist and professor at Draanikaarus University; Jacob Almås, vice chairman of the Avgåd Foundation, and our own Pieter Velbryn. I'll start with Anders; what do you think about how this election is changing Vallish politics.
Anders: Well, I think, first and foremost, we have to talk about the media. Obviously we're sitting here, but every organization from the smallest of local publications to network television- I mean,
especially network television- are really into this. I mean, y'know, you kinda have to be. You've got 24 hour news cycles constantly keeping people updated. People get newsletters; they see flutts; they-
Jacob: Can we stop right there for a moment, because you just hit something especially important alongside those 24 hour news cycles, which is social media.
Anders: Oh, yeah. Absolutely.
Jacob: I mean, social media revolutionized this campaign season. All the contending parties used it in some form, but with varying applications, from Lotte Jensen's motivational quotations to Mark Solberg's frequent statistical displays. And among those, Fluttr was by far the one with the largest attention, as well as the biggest battleground. Outside of Vogland, of course.
Pieter: *Chuckles* I think you're forgetting someone.
Jacob: I was saving best for last. I mean, you can't talk about this election and not talk about Mark Hellstrand. The man's been blazing through the entire national political system, leaving both fans and flames in his wake.
Anders: That's a good way to put it. I mean, you're talking about a man who, in late 2017, less than two years ago, essentially took a fringe political party that no one had ever heard of and, to put it crudely, grabbed it by the balls.
Pieter: That's quite the description, and it's not really wrong. The Federalist Party now is nothing like the Federalist Party then- hell, it could be said that it's the opposite of what it was then. You know, now you have this dynamo of a populist party, where before, it was small, more moderate except for its single-issue purpose, and essentially run by the Kelten family.
Anders: I think others within the party wanted change, though. Hellstrand won the leadership election with, I think, 82% of the vote, and solidified himself quickly. I mean, this is a man who's been in the public sphere for decades. He knows his stuff. He's been an actor, a businessman, and had a stint in lobbying, albeit brief- so he's really seen it all when it comes to national politics, and I think it's become abundantly clear he doesn't like any of it.
Pieter: Oh, that's for sure. Hellstrand's broken all the rules and he really doesn't care about that much at all. He's insulted his opponents, he's gone off script on much of his speeches, and, of course, he frequently rants on Fluttr. Whether you hate him or love him, it's undeniable that his flutts are raw, unvarnished, uncensored, and honest. The man speaks his mind.
Jacob: And though that's made him a lot of enemies, it's really helped him gain a base. Federalist candidates are popping up all over the country, from north to south. The media is obsessed with him. I mean, hell, we're sitting right here now talking about him. What remains to be seen is whether he'll initiate a hostile takeover of national politics or whether he'll come up short, but bottom line, to analogize with soccer terms, the Federalists are going up to the premier league of politics regardless of whether they score a goal or not.
Kari: I think, on that note, we should talk about Lotte Jensen.
Jacob: Yeah. Because when it comes to the question of whether Hellstrand and the Federalists will win it all or not, it comes down to Jensen. The CDP is likely to hold on to the core of the North, but in this election it's not just middle Valland that will be a battleground. It'll be the South as well. Jensen
needs to hold the South if she wants her party to win.
Anders: If Hellstrand manages to gain enough momentum to steal the South from the Messianist Democrats, it could very well give the CDP the election, or even the Federalists if they manage to get enough districts. It should be submitted, though, that Jensen's been very good at appealing to northern suburban voters, and I think that's gonna help her hold on stronger, and mitigate the risk of losing the South. And if she holds on to the South? The Messianist Democrats will doubtless win.
Pieter: Personally, I attribute her success with suburban and upper middle class communities to her personality. I think voters see in her both a motherly compassion and a fighting spirit, and they see in her charisma to match Hellstrand, but of a more composed variety, which is a good combination when you're talking about that demographic.
Anders: Yeah, I agree, and I think she's definitely turning up as the face, really, of anti-Hellstrand sympathy. Solberg, in that department, has just fallen short, plain and simple. From what I've seen, to a lot of voters he just comes off as a queasy old man who yells a lot, though his base sees that differently.
Jacob: *Chuckles* He does yell a lot, though. Anything Jensen's said to criticize Hellstrand, Solberg has said louder. And he's said it in more radical terms. I don't think he's entirely to blame, though- a lot of it was circumstantial. He took over the party following the Vikstad Beach Scandal, when the CDP completely failed to adequately address Goyanean Liberal Democrat leader Alexander Bijner's antics in the region. That created this leftist anger that's really permeated the CDP, and Solberg seems to be perfectly fine with it. Ultimately, though, going back to Jensen? I think it's going to be either her or Hellstrand. The CDP just doesn't have enough momentum at the moment outside its own base.
Jacob: We should also mention the Centrist Union. Their situation during this campaign season is an interesting one, to say the least. They've seen stagnation and a double-hung legislature since 2012, and I think it's become clear that their movement is not as viable as it once was. You know, the world's becoming more connected, and especially as Valland's tech industry is becoming more sophisticated, it's becoming harder for Valland to not be an active part of regional politics, and really get its name out there; especially in an increasingly uncertain world.
Anders: Yeah. And I think the Centrist Union knows this. What you're seeing is the Centrist Union becoming less of a movement and more of a mediatory force. This campaign's been absolutely vicious, and I think the Centrists have been able to take advantage of that. They've been trying to mediate between the other three parties, and if they really seize on that position? They'll definitely be able to go places, and mitigate any losses they may incur.
Kari: Finally, before we wrap up, it has to be asked: what are the likely battleground cantons for this election?
Pieter: A
lot. Too many to name, I would say. Obviously you've got the usual ones like Vogland, Brussingen, Lappen, et cetera, but there may also be battles in Glarus, Jura, Midtkandal, even ones like Versør, Halsen, and
Nidaros.
Nidaros. I mean, the variables are all over the place here. It's really anybody's game.
Kari: Well, we'll have to see just how that game ends. That's all the time we have for this quick panel; we now bring you to Hofgren-Sjæby for a breaking story.