My weather blog

*chuckles*

I lived in California for four months. Had a grass fire threaten town, a couple 5.x earthquakes, downpours from a dying hurricane, and lots of fog.

It was interesting.
 
after reading this blog about montana weather, i've come to the conclusion that i could NEVER hang with that. I lived in the midwest till my early 20's, then it was to South Florida for 3 years. with over 4 months a year with an average temp of 89, it thins your blood out quite a bit. even after having lived in NYC thru a pretty harsh winter, my hands go numb when the weather dips below 60. And im going to Great Lakes for 9 weeks starting Jan 29th?! im royally effed!
 
60? Try -60. We've done it in Montana before ;) Actually, lowest temp on record in the Continental US is -70 recorded at Rogers Pass 45mi NW of Helena. Here in Bozeman our coldest recorded temp is only -47, though.

But the radar is looking mother****ing good tonight. HEAVY rain/snow from Missoula up to Kalispell. Hopefully that moisture can make it over the divide (doubt it :-/)
 
NWS Great Falls has picked up on the higher-than-progged moisture as well.

MTZ009-014-048-130545-
/O.CON.KTFX.WS.W.0011.071113T0100Z-071113T1300Z/
NORTHERN ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT-
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN LEWIS AND CLARK-
SOUTHERN ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BROWNING...HELENA...LINCOLN...CHOTEAU
244 PM MST MON NOV 12 2007

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING
TO 6 AM MST TUESDAY FOR ELEVATIONS ABOVE 5000 FEET FROM GLACIER PARK
SOUTH TO MACDONALD PASS..

A WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING
TO 6 AM MST TUESDAY.

EXPECT 8 TO 14 INCHES OF SNOW ACCUMULATION BY TUESDAY MORNING.
ELEVATIONS ABOVE 8000 FEET COULD RECEIVE AS MUCH AS TWO FEET OF
SNOW. STRONG WEST WINDS WILL IMPACT TRAVEL THROUGH MOUNTAIN
PASSES WITH VISIBILITIES DROPPING BELOW ONE QUARTER OF A MILE AT
TIMES.
Click to expand...

Too bad that warning only goes down to Lewis and Clark County. There isn't as much as a Hazardous Weather Outlook for Gallatin Valley. Even just some mountain snowfall would be fun. I got trapped on MacDonald Pass on Saturday en route from Missoula to Helena :w00t:
 
It's already windy here, I've been sitting here listening to the wind. There's been a few brief sprinkles of rain.

But I expect that's about all we'll get out of this one.

My business partners live out towards McDonald pass, one of them has a young bear breaking into his barn and car lately.
 
I'd loooooove to live on MacDonald Pass. Although bears might be slightly annoying. The deer that wander through the valley are annoying enough, ugh.

What is NOT annoying is that there is seven inches of snow in my yard right now. Temp was 55 when I went to bed at 1am, but I woke up 6 hours later to find 7 inches of snow on the ground. That was... surprising. But I'll take it ;)

Pics:

img0850bk1.jpg

View from my window

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Driving along Main St Bozeman towards the Bridger Mountains

img0861ub3.jpg

Driving towards my apartment

Now 28F and snowing lightly once again.
 
ok, im not keen on cold, but those pics bring back great memories of my childhood. plus, when everything is white like that, its just so peaceful.
 
Nothing but wind and a bit of rain/snow mix - nothing that stuck.

I woke up to a small bit of damage to the house this morning, so I had to fix that before heading out for the day. It sounded like the house had alot more damage last night with all the banging and whatnot.

Looks like a white Thanksgiving is on the way though.
 
I always wish for more winds, but some day I'll probably regret it when I actually get them. Bozeman never gets really windy like Helena or Belgrade though.

Anyway... things learned (that I think the NWS would do well to learn themselves):

Bozeman gets only a minimal amount of downsloping during high wind events, since there are effectively no mountains to our west for 80 plus miles. Instead, we are one of the few towns in Montana to get mostly upsloping due to elevation difference between Three Forks (3900') and Bozeman (5000'). Thus the upslope winds cooled temps drastically when the front moved through, converting all precip to snow from the outset. Meanwhile, other areas in Montana such as Helena got downsloped to death, and thus little snow. It's either wind OR snow for most areas (Bozeman and far eastern Montana excepted).

Week before Thanksgiving looks very troughy, which indicates heavy snow is on the way for all locations. But I'll be in Seattle during this time period anyway. And it doesn't snow in Seattle anymore, heh.
 
See? Isn't snow lovely???

Anyway, BIG weather news. Models are converging on an arctic airmass moving into the interior Northwest Monday/early Tues. All reputable models have the jet buckling somewhere over the western half of the US. All of which buckle over Montana. Question is whether it's Washington and Montana that get cold, or North Dakota and Montana. Either way, it's cold for us. Latest run of the Euro has sub-zero temps as far south as Salt Lake City, with temps of -10 to -15 for much of Montana. GFS isn't as bullish with the cold but still has windchills approaching -20. Further, east-northeast winds should push winds upslope for areas east of the divide to get heavy snow. White Thanksgiving is looking likely at this point, especially considering there's still 5 inches of snow on the ground here.
 
Also interesting to see the Euro with a blizzard for Seattle proper for Thanksgiving weekend (I will be flying out of Seattle the day of the predicted blizzard... ugh).
 
Scratch the Seattle blizzard. That was just model-hugging on my part.

Anyway, all models have converged on a snowy solution bringing 3-6 inches to Bozeman. Rain showers should move in late Sunday night and switch over to all snow some time Monday. If somehow this turns out to be an all-snow event like last time then we're looking at a foot or more at the valley floor. TFX's AFD is talking about 2-5" across the various valleys of western MT.
 
All we're talking about in Helena is rain.

There's a few showers that should be moving in later today. The coldest weather I'm seeing forcast at the moment is in the upper 30's for the next few days.

And the extended forcasts have dropped all the cold and snow for the Thanksgiving weekend period.

I'm dissapointed.
 
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
249 PM MST SAT NOV 17 2007

...WINTER STORM POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY ACROSS CENTRAL
MONTANA..

.A STRONG PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MOVE ONSHORE LATE
IN THE WEEKEND. MOISTURE AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
STREAM INTO THE REGION...BRINGING A POSSIBILITY FOR ACCUMULATING
SNOWS TO PORTIONS OF CENTRAL MONTANA.

MTZ009-012-014-048-050-051-054-181200-
/O.NEW.KTFX.WS.A.0014.071119T0600Z-071120T0000Z/
NORTHERN ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT-CASCADE-
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN LEWIS AND CLARK-
SOUTHERN ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT-JUDITH BASIN-FERGUS-MEAGHER-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BROWNING...GREAT FALLS...HELENA..
LINCOLN...CHOTEAU...STANFORD...LEWISTOWN...WHITE SULPHUR SPRINGS
249 PM MST SAT NOV 17 2007

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH
MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL MONTANA..

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GREAT FALLS HAS ISSUED A WINTER
STORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL MONTANA...EFFECTIVE FROM
SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON.

A STRONG PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM...AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT...WILL
PROVIDE THE POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATING SNOWS ACROSS CENTRAL
MONTANA. PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN ACROSS THE WATCH AREA
SUNDAY AFTERNOON...WITH SNOW INITIALLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS...AND
RAIN AT LOWER ELEVATIONS. FOR SUNDAY NIGHT...A COLD FRONT WILL
CROSS THE REGION...CHANGING THE PRECIPITATION TO ALL SNOW ACROSS
THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. EXPECT THE SNOW TO LAST THROUGH LATE MONDAY
AFTERNOON...UNTIL THE DISTURBANCE FINALLY MOVES EAST OF THE AREA.

SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS SYSTEM. AT THIS
TIME...2 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE PLAINS OF
CENTRAL MONTANA...WITH GENERALLY 8 TO 14 INCHES OF SNOW POSSIBLE
OVER THE MOUNTAINS...AND UP TO 2 FEET OF SNOW POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGHER
PEAKS. THESE ACCUMULATIONS MAY HAVE SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS ON EARLY
HOLIDAY TRAVEL...AND ALL RESIDENTS ACROSS CENTRAL MONTANA SHOULD
CONTINUE TO MONITOR LATER FORECASTS.

A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT
SNOW...SLEET...OR ICE ACCUMULATIONS THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL.
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS.

KEEP TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR THE LATEST WEATHER INFORMATION.

$$
Click to expand...

:P
 
'Tis only a watch. Last two watches were cancelled and we got rain, so I won't hold my breath.

Nevertheless, I'll cross my fingers.

Our forcast currently is for rain and snow mixed Sunday night, back to rain Monday.
 
Latest run of the GFS has 1.00-1.25 qpf over Bozeman with 0c 850 temps at 24hr. There is the potential that I could bust tremendously low, esp. for BZN.

:w00t:

But I wouldn't count on it.
 
.DISCUSSION...THE GFS...NAM...AND RUC HAVE FAILED TO CAPTURE THE
AMOUNT OF COOL AIR PRESENT IN THE LOWER LEVELS WITH THIS SYSTEM.
PART OF THE ISSUE COULD BE FROM SOME EXCEPTIONAL EVAPORATIVE
COOLING THAT HAS OCCURED SINCE ABOUT 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON. AS A
RESULT...HAVE TOSSED OUT THE MODEL SOLUTIONS FOR THE VALLEYS
(ONLY.) WHILE THE MODELS PERFORMANCE FOR THE VALLEYS IS NOT SO
GOOD RIGHT NOW...THE PERFORMANCE FOR THE MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS HAS
BEEN PRETTY GOOD. THE FIRST SUBSTANTIAL SNOWFALL OF THE SEASON HAS
BEGUN. THERE IS SOME CONCERN THAT THE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS LISTED IN
THE HEAVY SNOW AND WINTER STORM WARNINGS ARE UNDER DONE.
HOWEVER...WOULD PREFER TO WAIT A FEW HOURS TO EVALUATE SNOWFALL
RATES FROM THE AREA SNOTELS BEFORE ADJUSTING AMOUNTS UPWARD.

A ZONE UPDATE HAS BEEN ISSUED TO ADD IN THE ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL
ADVISORY HIGHLIGHTS.
Click to expand...

:D

Heavy Snow/Winter Storm/Blizzard warnings may need to be dropped to the valley floors. I agree with MSO that any updates in the forecast should wait for a bit... but confidence in my prior conservative forecast of <2" for HLN and <6" for BZN is waning... Missoula is getting absolutely hammered with 2 inches in one hour, and they're the banana belt.
 
2 - 3 inches in Helena, yep.

Would've been more, but it was too warm. Stayed just over freezing, so it was constantly melting down.

Tailing off now, the moon is out and temps dropping. It will be an icy drive in the morning.
 
Looks like the unsettled snowy pattern should continue through the weekend... with a large storm on Sunday night. Then ridging through Tuesday and back to a snowy, chilly trough.

La Nina is so useful :tb2:
 
My forecast for the Nor'easter was a good one IMO.

Anyway, for Monday's storm... 3-6" BZN, dusting-2" HLN. 8-12" in mountains around BZN as well as the Con. divide.

I'm gonna own this forecast.
 
Also, it PISSES ME OFF when NWS Missoula office issues a heavy snow/winter storm/blizzard warning for the mountains around Missoula but does not even issue a special weather statement or hazardous weather outlook for the Missoula valley itself. If the mountains are forecasted to get a food, then it is irresponsible to not issue any sort of statement or accums for the valley. I realize that 1-3 inches of snow isn't a big deal in MT but it can still **** things up for a bit so they should at least recognize that and issue some sort of statement. Gaaaaah!

Also, the next time I see accums posted for the valleys of Gallatin County, I'm gonna get pissy. 2-4 inches means nothing. Really what 2-4" means is 0" in Manhattan, 3" in Belgrade, and 6" in Bozeman. You need to decode everything the stupid NWS says. Goddamnit.

Also, we need radar in Bozeman. We're hundreds of miles from both the TFX and BYZ radars, so those suck ass. Part of that is the mountains blocking the radar beam, but composite reflectivity sucks too. Godddddddddddamnit!!!!!

</rant>
 
UPDATE

I'm back in Bozeman, FINALLY :tb2:

That means snow and cold. In DC we got to 75 and that was depressing. Bozeman's RECORD highs don't get into the 70's until late March. Bah @ DC.

Anyway, snowpack is shitty right now. 3 in at the valley floor with *gasp* green spots!!! But that's alright - looks like we'll see an inch or two on Tuesday along with high's in the teens and 20's.

But what looks REALLY interesting is the unprecidented surge of arctic air next week. Of course it's 7 days out, but TFX is already mentioning this in their AFD. 6z GFS has -40C 850mb temps throughout the highline, with -35C all the way down to Wyoming. And mind youse, models are trending even COLDER. Which means that towns like Bozeman and Helena could see temps approaching -40F. Coldest airmass in a decade??? :w00t:

Now, if we could build snowpack throughout the valleys and get better radiational cooling... then some places could approach all time record lows. All time record low in Bozeman is -42 and in Helena, -46 IIRC. The NWS is wanking all around about this, even though it's 7 days out. Their discussion yesterday featured exclamation pionts! That alone has me excited.
 
TFX:
6Z RUN OF THE GFS ACTUALLY HAD
850 MB TEMPS OF -40C NEAR MONTANAS NORTHERN BORDER...WITH A BROAD
AREA OF TEMPS LESS THAN -20C OVER A HUGE EXPANSE OF THE NORTHERN
CONUS...AND EVEN WELL WEST OF THE CONTDVD.
Click to expand...

For our lovely British and Canadian friends... that's -40 Celsius. About 20 degrees colder than the coldest temperature ever recorded anywhere in the UK. 850mb temps do translate roughly to surface temps for areas such as Browning and Cut Bank at 4,000 feet.
 
Haha. Don't worry - Switzerland is nicer than Britain and Eastern Canada, anyway.

Snow totals through this week:

1" last Tuesday (two days ago)
1" yesterday
3" today

And forecasting:
2" tonight
1" tomorrow
2" tomorrow night
3-5" Saturday
2-4" Saturday night
1" Sunday

:tb2: :tb2: :tb2:
 
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