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King Durk the Awesome

King Durk the Awesome

TNPer
Yesterday a record high was set in Wisdom, Montana. Old record was 89 degrees recorded in 1986. New record is 90. Breaking the 90 degree mark at Wisdom's elevation and lattitude is nearly impossible. Congrats, Wisdom, on the record.

Also, a cold front and rain moved into the Bozeman area earlier today temporarily pushing temperatures down into the 50's with cold rain and driving winds. Now it's 75 and sunny, about average for Bozeman in August.
 
I was in Cooke City, Montana on Saturday night on a trip over the beautiful Beartooth Highway into Yellowstone :tb2:

Temperature dropped to 32 degrees overnight and I had the heat on full blast. Temps rose into the 40's and low 50's during the day in Yellowstone Park, but it was cold as BALLS atop the Pass at 11,000 feet :tb2: :tb2: :tb2: :tb2: :tb2: :tb2:

Fun Fact: Cooke City (elev 7500") is the coldest town in the Lower 48, if you consider a gas station, a couple restaurants, and a gift shop to be a town. Otherwise the coldest town is West Yellowstone, Montana (elev 6500"); I was there as well. :tb2: :tb2: :tb2:

Or, if you're using the same standards as Guinness, you only look at towns with a thousand or more people. In which case, the coldest town is Int'l Falls, Minn. But nobody gives a **** about Minnesota, right?
 
I was in that area this past June and it was indeed cold as shit. It snowed and camping that night sucked. Luckily they had heated restrooms to squat in, to warm up. Or to pee, were I a girl, I guess.
 
Yes, it's normally still cold in June. July's pretty much the only shot at warmth we've got. And that's over till next year.
 
Yeah, the hot weather seems to have ended, at least in Bozeman, the day I got back from Ireland. After spending eight consecutive summers in Montana and Ireland, I realized I could never handle another East Coast summer that actually lasts for three months. *sigh*
 
Tonight a lot of the higher elevation valleys and towns will drop into the 30's for nighttime lows. My lovely quasi-hometown of Anaconda may get near 32 :tb2:

Also, I might as well admit that I forecasted Dean to hit Western Louisiana as a Cat 5 and the Yucatan as a Cat 3. Whoops.
 
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
246 PM MDT FRI SEP 7 2007

MTZ028>042-056>058-063>068-WYZ098-099-082100-
SOUTHERN WHEATLAND-MUSSELSHELL-TREASURE-NORTHERN ROSEBUD-CUSTER-
FALLON-NORTHERN STILLWATER-YELLOWSTONE-POWDER RIVER-CARTER-
SOUTHERN BIG HORN-EASTERN CARBON-NORTHERN PARK-
NORTHERN SWEET GRASS-GOLDEN VALLEY-RED LODGE FOOTHILLS-
NORTHERN BIG HORN-SOUTHERN ROSEBUD-JUDITH GAP-GALLATIN VALLEY-BOZEMAN AREA-PARADISE VALLEY-
LIVINGSTON AREA-BEARTOOTH FOOTHILLS-ABSAROKA/BEARTOOTH MOUNTAINS-
CRAZY MOUNTAINS-NORTHEAST BIG HORN MOUNTAINS-SHERIDAN FOOTHILLS-
246 PM MDT FRI SEP 7 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
MONTANA...SOUTHWEST MONTANA...SOUTH CENTRAL MONTANA...SOUTHEAST MONTANA AND NORTH
CENTRAL WYOMING.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON
AND TONIGHT IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

ANOTHER STRONG STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD FROM CANADA ON
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY USHERING IN BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND
INCREASING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION. WHILE RAIN WILL BE THE MAIN
THREAT OVER THE WEEKEND...SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN MOUNTAIN AND HIGH VALLEY
LOCATIONS ABOVE 4500 FEET ON SUNDAY NIGHT. SNOW AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 4
INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE IN LOWER GALLATIN AND PARADISE VALLEYS WITH 4 TO 6
INCHES POSSIBLE IN THE BEARTOOTH AND ABSAROKA RANGES.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

$$
 
Last night I went to bed to snow and sleet falling, but not sticking.

This morning I woke up to a temperature of 30 degrees. Not as cold as in Wisdom, where the mercury dropped to 16 above zero. Brrrrrrrrrr!!! Wish I were in Wisdom :(

Anaconda, my old stomping ground, did well too, at 22. Cold morning across the ssouthwestern corner of the state, really.

We need a snowman emoticon :P
 
snowmandu6.gif
snowmanbodyod7.gif
xmas23vw6.gif
xmas20lf2.gif


Sure.
 
Another snowstorm headed Bozeman way:

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
533 AM MDT THU SEP 27 2007

MTZ008-009-012-014-015-048-050>055-281200-
BEAVERHEAD-NORTHERN ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT-CASCADE-
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN LEWIS AND CLARK-MADISON-
SOUTHERN ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT-JUDITH BASIN-FERGUS-JEFFERSON-
BROADWATER-MEAGHER-GALLATIN-
533 AM MDT THU SEP 27 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
MONTANA...NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA AND SOUTHWEST MONTANA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER FOR TODAY AND
TONIGHT IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

ANOTHER EARLY FALL STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION
FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. AS A RESULT...A PERIOD
OF RAIN AND SNOW IS LIKELY OVER MUCH OF SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL
MONTANA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. AS COLDER AIR MOVES
INTO THE AREA ON FRIDAY NIGHT...EXPECT SNOW LEVELS TO LOWER TO
NEAR 4500 FEET. ACCUMULATING SNOW IS POSSIBLE DURING THIS
PERIOD...ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS. THUS...WINTER WEATHER
HIGHLIGHTS COULD BE ISSUED LATER THIS WEEK FOR THIS EVENT.

THEREFORE...IF ANYONE HAS OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES PLANNED IN THE
MOUNTAINS OF SOUTHWEST MONTANA FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING...THEY SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR WINTER LIKE CONDITIONS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT..

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

$$
 
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
248 PM MDT FRI SEP 28 2007

MTZ008-015-055-290500-
/O.UPG.KTFX.WS.A.0010.070929T0600Z-070929T1800Z/
/O.NEW.KTFX.SN.Y.0018.070929T0600Z-070930T0000Z/
/O.NEW.KTFX.HS.W.0008.070929T0600Z-070930T0000Z/
BEAVERHEAD-MADISON-GALLATIN-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...DILLON...ENNIS...BOZEMAN..
WEST YELLOWSTONE
248 PM MDT FRI SEP 28 2007

...HEAVY SNOW WARNING IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 PM MDT
SATURDAY ABOVE 6000 FEET..
...SNOW ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 PM MDT
SATURDAY BELOW 6000 FEET..
...WINTER STORM WATCH NO LONGER IN EFFECT..

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GREAT FALLS HAS ISSUED A HEAVY
SNOW WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 PM
MDT SATURDAY ABOVE 6000 FEET. A SNOW ADVISORY HAS ALSO BEEN ISSUED.
THIS SNOW ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 PM MDT
SATURDAY BELOW 6000 FEET. THE WINTER STORM WATCH IS NO LONGER IN
EFFECT.

EXPECT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF UP TO 2 INCHES BELOW 5000 FEET...2 TO 6
INCHES BETWEEN 5000 FEET AND 7000 FEET...AND 6 TO 12 INCHES ABOVE
7000 FEET.

A COLD AND MOIST PACIFIC WEATHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH WESTERN
MONTANA SATURDAY MORNING. AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM PRECIPITATION WILL
BEGIN AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH SNOW LEVELS BETWEEN 8000 FEET AND 9000
FEET. SNOW LEVELS WILL DROP TO THE VALLEY FLOORS BY MORNING. SNOW
WILL END SATURDAY EVENING.

A HEAVY SNOW WARNING MEANS SEVERE WINTER WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW ARE FORECAST
THAT WILL MAKE TRAVEL DANGEROUS. ONLY TRAVEL IN AN EMERGENCY. IF
YOU MUST...KEEP AN EXTRA FLASHLIGHT...FOOD...AND WATER IN YOUR
VEHICLE IN CASE OF AN EMERGENCY.

A SNOW ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW WILL CAUSE PRIMARILY
TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR SNOW COVERED ROADS AND
LIMITED VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION WHILE DRIVING.

$$

0-2 inches below 5000', 2-6 inches above. I'm right at 5000' so I'll split the difference and say I'll get 2 inches. w00t :tb2:
 
The snowflakes are falling now.

All this excitement calls for my 2007-2008 long-range forecast for the Northern Rockies!

Essentially I am going with +1 to +2 degrees warmer than average, with 25%-50% above average snowfall. Thus, here are January mean temperature and snowfall predictions across Montana:

Anaconda:
Average high: 27
Average low: -2
Snowfall: 85"

Billings:
Average high: 32
Average low: 10
Snowfall: 40"

Bozeman:
Average high: 29
Average low: 3
Snowfall: 130"

Butte:
Average high: 24
Average low: 1
Snowfall: 70"

Cooke City:
Average high: 10
Average low: -15
Snowfall: 250"

Cut Bank:
Average high: 18
Average low: -3
Snowfall: 30"

Glasgow:
Average high: 8
Average low: -5
Snowfall: 25"

Great Falls:
Average high: 31
Average low: 7
Snowfall: 65"

Havre:
Average high: 24
Average low: 8
Snowfall: 35"

Helena:
Average high: 25
Average low: 6
Snowfall: 50"

Kalispell:
Average high: 23
Average low: 7
Snowfall: 110"

Miles City:
Average high: 19
Average low: 0
Snowfall: 30"

Missoula:
Average high: 32
Average low: 8
Snowfall: 70"

West Yellowstone:
Average high: 15
Average low: -10
Snowfall: 200"

Whitefish:
Average high: 22
Average low: 8
Snowfall: 120"
 
OK, here is my reasoning:

In my opinion this winter is going to produce a very strong La Nina, which is generally bad for snowfall in the east but good for the west (good if you like snow, anyway). La Nina should deminish by mid-season around mid to late Jan. which will bring cold but dry air to the Northwest.

So:

Expect early and heavy snowfalls across Montana. Tonight and tomorrow is winter's first shot at us but October could get fun if you like snow. I'm calling for 20 inches of snow in Oct alone for Bozeman. 15 in November and another 20 inches in December. Temps running 4-5 degrees above average through late November into December.

In Jaunary expect a pattern shift. Many Montana locations will experience their first sub-zero temps in January, with long stretches of subzero for Bozeman, Butte, and Helena. Temps will briefly bomb out at -40 in Butte and -30 for Helena and Bozeman. Windchilld approching -100 in the highest valley areas, including Butte and Anaconda. Coldest airmass in several years I am going to say. But below average snowfall (cold air holds less moisture among other reasons associated with the Nina). Expect 10 inches of snow in January and February. Snow should begin to pick up again, accumulating 20 inches in March and April each. Another 10 or so inches in May as snow season comes to an end. And that's a rap :D

At the end of the winter we'll look back and see how I did ;)
 
On second thought, scratch everything I've said above. I've been talking this over with several professional meteorologists that frequent another forum I go to, so I'm changing this all around.

Still a very strong La Nina. But not only very strong, perhaps historically strong. CPC data is out and the trimonthly is at -0.608, indicating a late-starting but rapidly intensifying La Nina. Over the past 100 years this has occured approx. 12 times, each of which resulted in extreme cold and incredible snow amounts for the Northwest. Last occurance of this was in 1976, which was Montana's coldest winter on record.

So, I'm sticking with the snowfall totals forecasted, but subtract 5 degrees off al my temperature forecasts.

Bada bing :D
 
For the record, La Nina refers to cooler-than-average temperatures over the eastern Pacific. -.608 means .608 degrees C colder than average, recorded at Nino 4 (located off the Washington State coast). Cold Pacific waters are great for the West (if you like snow) but not so much for the Eastern US. Very warm winter for the East Coast, with perhaps Seattle recieving more snow than New York and DC (rare!).
 
Even the -NAO should help lock in cold air across the West.

Anyway, onto mid-range forecasting. NWS GF Area forecast discussion yields the following:

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...ONLY CHARGES IN THE
EXTENDED PERIOD WAS TO RAISE POPS THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY ACROSS
MY SOUTHEAST CWA. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ALL SHOW UPPER TROUGH COMING
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...BUT DIFFER IN THE
AMPLITUDE...SPEED AND POSITION OF THE FEATURE. OPERATIONAL 00Z RUN
OF GFS SHOWS UPPER TROUGH BECOMING SOMEWHAT CUTOFF...WITH A SFC
LOW DEEPENING OVER ERN WYOMING THU NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...THEN
TRACKING NEWD INTO THE DAKOTAS SUNDAY. 00Z RUN OF ECMWF HAS
TRENDED TOWARD THIS SOLUTION AS WELL...WITH TROUGH EVOLVING INTO
CLOSED UPPER LOW...BUT PROGRESSING A LITTLE MORE QUICKLY EASTWARD
AND FARTHER SOUTH...IMPLYING A SHORTER PERIOD OF PRECIPITATION. AT
THIS POINT WILL GO WITH COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE TWO...WHICH MEANS A
SLIGHTLY SLOWER END TO PRECIP CHANCES OVER SE SECTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA...WHERE MAY HAVE RAIN AND SNOW CONTINUING INTO
SATURDAY. BASED ON LATEST GUIDANCE...STILL EXPECT SAT NIGHT AND
SUNDAY TO BE GENERALLY DRY...AS PRECIPITATION ASSOC WITH SYSTEM
SHIFTS TO THE EAST. AS FAR AS PRECIPITATION TYPE...EXPECT SNOW
LEVELS TO DROP STEADILY...FROM 5000 TO 6000 FEET...NORTH TO
SOUTH... ON FRIDAY...DOWN TO 3500 TO 4500 FEET FRIDAY NIGHT. BY
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT...ANY PRECIPITATION FALLING WILL LIKELY BE IN
THE FORM OF SNOW EVEN ACROSS THE PLAINS...AS 850 MB TEMPERATURES
ARE PROGGED TO DROP NEAR OR BELOW ZERO DEG C...WITH GFS BEING THE
COOLER OF THE MODELS. POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR SNOW FOR ALL ELEVATIONS
FRI NIGHT...WITH POTENTIAL FOR SEVERAL INCHES OF ACCUMULATION IN
THE MOUNTAINS...ESPECIALLY THOSE WITH FAVORABLE UPSLOPE WITH A
NORTHEAST BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW FRI AND FRI NIGHT. WILL CONTINUE TO
MENTION THE POTENTIAL STORM IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.
REILLY/WILLIAMSON DC
 
From the NWS BIL HWO:

A STRONG STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION FRIDAY AND LINGER
INTO SUNDAY BEFORE SHIFTING EAST. THE EXACT STRENGTH AND TRACK OF
THIS SYSTEM STILL REMAINS UNCERTAIN. THIS STORM WILL LIKELY
PRODUCE A PERIOD OF WET WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION BUT AMOUNTS AND
PRECIPITATION TYPE REMAIN THE BIGGEST UNCERTAINTY. AS COLDER
TEMPERATURES SHIFT INTO THE AREA BY THE WEEKEND...THE POTENTIAL
FOR A HEAVY SNOWFALL EXISTS FOR SOME AREAS...ESPECIALLY IN THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS. CURRENT FORECASTS INDICATE RAIN AND MOUNTAIN
SNOW INCREASING THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. BY FRIDAY
NIGHT...ENOUGH COLD AIR COULD BE IN PLACE FOR AT LEAST A MIX OF
RAIN AND SNOW IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. ACCUMULATING SNOWS COULD
EVEN DEVELOP SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY ACROSS SOME OF THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS.

THOSE WITH TRAVEL OR OUTDOOR PLANS FOR THIS WEEKEND NEED TO STAY
TUNED FOR FURTHER UPDATES ON THE DEVELOPING STORM.
 
Bah!

People think I'm crazy for loving snow and cold so much. But I've always been this way, even before I moved to Montana and its cold climate. I've heard of the condition that causes people do go into depression during the colder months... I think I'm the opposite. In the winter I'm perpetually happy no matter how shitty my RL may be otherwise. I just love everything about the snow... walking in it, driving in it, skiing in it, sledding in it, etc. And snowmobiling especially :) But most of all, it's so beautiful. And it doesn't melt into a polluted black goo like you get in New York, where I am originally from. We maintain a pretty nice snowpack throughout winter here, up until May-ish. Then the snow melts to yield an absolutely stunning green. During the summer everything browns out as the grass dies, but May and June are just gorgeous in Montana... there is no better time to visit.

Anyway, the point is that snow = good ;)
 
Well, snow=good is a correct equation, but just not where I live. Somewhere nearby, so that I can go skiing within a one hours ride. Actually, it is perfect here... :)
 
Omg yus.

Also, the european model shows a nice trough setting up over the Pac NW next Saturday. GFS also picks up on this... although I'd take the long range GFS with a grain of salt. Here's the snow accums it shows for Bozeman starting next Saturday, however:

Saturday(2-5")
Veteran's Day(1-3")
Nov 12th(2-4")
Nov 13th(1")
Nov 14th(1-2")
Nov 15th(dusting)
Nov 17th(5-10")
Nov 18th(2-4")
Nov 19th(1")

Always good to see :P
 
If the PNA doesn't go negative next week bad things are going to happen. Thankfully it seems like it will go negative, and we'll get snow. I'm all over this pattern like Rosie O'Donnel over a box of chocolates.
 
OMIGOSH CHEX OUT THE 12z GFS:

Friday(3-6")
Saturday(2-3")
Veteran's Day(1-2")
Nov 12th(2-5")
Nov 13th(2-3")
Nov 14th(3-5")
Nov 15th(3-4")
Nov 16th(4-7")
Nov 17th(2-4")
Nov 18th(1-3")
Nov 19th(3-8")
Nov 20th(1-3")
 
LIKE OMG SNOWSTORMS FINALLY!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

OKAY SO I have these forecasts. One for the weekend disturbances that will run from Saturday through Monday. Snow levels drop to the valley floors by Sunday night but with only marginal temps. Accums around one inch in Bozeman, less in Helena, more in Butte and Anaconda. Pretty pansy storm IMO - next!

Next one looks stronger and colder. 3-6 inches in Bozeman, 1-3 in Helena, 2-5 in Butte and Anaconda. <1 inch in Missoula and the Bitterroot. In NW Montana... 1-3 inches in Kalispell and Whitefish. <1 inch in Billings and points east.

Since this is still a week away I'm mostly just talking out of my ass right now. But since when has that stopped me? :w00t: snow! :w00t:
 
BTW the numbers for the Wed. storm are conservative. Nearly all the models agree at this point... considering this is over 200 hrs out, having agreement is a very good sign. They mostly point to anywhere from 4-12 inches for Bozeman. I refuse to bust high again, though. So I'm going conservative.
 
MSO:
THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL
IDAHO...NORTHWEST MONTANA AND WEST CENTRAL MONTANA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

A PATTERN CHANGE WILL OCCUR ON SATURDAY AS A STRONG COLD FRONT
MOVES ACROSS WRN MONTANA AND NORTH CENTRAL IDAHO. ACCUMULATING
SNOWFALL IS POSSIBLE IN BOTH MOUNTAIN AND HIGH VALLEY LOCATIONS BY
SUNDAY. ANOTHER...STRONGER SYSTEM MAY MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT BRINGING MORE ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL TO
THE MOUNTAINS AND POSSIBLY TO VALLEYS AS WELL. WINTER WEATHER
HIGHLIGHTS MAY BE NEEDED FOR BOTH EVENTS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT..

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

$$
Click to expand...

Like omg!
 
I haven't seen much of anything on this from the Helena forcasts. There's a slight chance of rain in the forcast Sat. night, and another slight change Friday next week.

They seemed to have dropped the cold (single digits) and snow they were talking about for the Tuesday before Thanksgiving.

*hoping for more interesting weather*
 
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