Another potentially angry thread

*Eluvatar drops the bomb: What about Russia joining the EU at some point in the medium-distant future?

(ASSUME Russia gets more democratic for the purposes of this discussion)

"May the Lord bless and Keep the Tsar... far away from us!"

ARGH!

With Chechnya and these new political reforms, they've got a worse chance than Turkey obviously. But if it ever did, then I think we'd be closer to world peace than ever. (For those not too scared to believe.)

Thanks Sniffles, you're not the only one not too scared to believe.

I thought a lot about that.

Russia perhaps wouldn't allow the EU to integrate Ukraine and Belarus when it feels left out of the loop. So, one should at least think about Russia. It would cost so much to bring all of Russia on the European standard that it would break the neck of today's EU right out. If Russia is to join, then the EU will definitely (not most probably, like in Turkey's case) be reduced to a free-trading zone (some of you should like that, no?), because most Russian politicians don't give much attention to world peace, and watch on their sovereignty far more vigilantly than any European country. If Russia is to join, then I would propose the foundation of a new organsiation, who's proclamed goal would be the political unification of Europe.

On the other hand: do the Russians want to join? I do not think so! Neither the politicians nor the public does want that! The only ones who could want that is the nearly powerless intelligentsia.

By the way, the same will happen perhaps in Turkey: because the EU poses even further conditions, the public opinion will slide towards the opponents of the membership. Yay!

It is in my opinion a shame to see that some of my fellow TNP'ans (pokes LV and UK) aren't even willing to discuss about Russia...I hope that I am wrong in assuming that these reactions may be at least partly due to unfair, irrational, ancient feelings, fears and anxieties of Westerners towards Russia...

It wouldn't happen.

It wouldn't happen because it would have to be in Russias interests to join. And for it to be in their interest, from their perspective, it would have to be because they could dominate the EU. Which obviously wouldn't be in the interests of the rest of Europe. There isn't much more than can be said to be honest.

Since there appears to be another cold war on the horizon, I would guess that the only reason Russia would enter Europe would be to keep the US influence out of it.

I would like to see the USA leave Europe alone, finally. 60 years are enough...

Oh, and I forgot: what is this "New Cold War" rubbish about anyway?!

Vrtbovska Zahrada:

Oh, and I forgot: what is this "New Cold War" rubbish about anyway?!

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US is building missile defences and radar sites in Eastern Europe to counter a perceived threat from Iran (or so they say.)

The Kremlin don't view this kindly and have decided to counter any US military build up in Europe by countering the treaties signed at the end of the USSR. Military build up, troop movement back over the Urals and Nuclear weapons pointed back at Europe. They've also promised to implement any measures they can find to counter the US Missile defences. It also looks as if China are supporting the sentiment so I don't think it would be a long-shot to assume that Russia has tacit Chinese support for military manoeuvres.

Putin suggested a different choice of country for the missile base today while in the G8 summit. I don't remember which one exactly, but it was a former soviet country a bit more to the east. White House officials have called this a positive turn of events.

A new cold war is not likely to happen. Russia is not what the USSR used to be. Now, they really are all bark and no bite. They are more likely to influence the world through their energy and financial sector and a cold war would be counterproductive for Russia.

I agree, but they can still make things difficult for the Americans in Eastern Europe.

Erm yes? And? Should they not be doing so, and let the US do whatever it likes in their own former backyard?

And it would indeed (as Palaiologos said) not be very sensible for Russia to attack its closest, biggest and richest trading partners. Or who would they be trading with afterwards? China? As in natural gas (the most important exporting good of Russia, along with weapons), China needs only a fraction of the amount of gas the EU consumes.


I find the Russian choice of words a bit too harsh, too, but I can understand their anger very well.

I don't think the US would be very happy with Russian "defence missiles" on Cuba, or the Bahamas, or in Haiti !?

The hysteric talk in some Western media of a New Cold War is a bit ridiculous, in my opinion...

@Vrtbovska Zahrada

Well, to be fair, noone mentioned attacking at any point. That is the whole premise for a cold war after all. But I doubt that Russia could even keep a proper threat of an attack effective for a long time. An energy embargo for Europe would be more likely, but even that would not be in the interest of Russia.


@Lord Valentine

The influence of the US in Eastern Europe is a given anyway. Both Poland and the Czechs were more than glad to do the US' the favor of becoming their base holders.

To me, Russia's game seems already lost... Nevertheless, they are an outspoken opponent to G.W. and that is good enough for me.

Palaiologos:

The influence of the US in Eastern Europe is a given anyway. Both Poland and the Czechs were more than glad to do the US' the favor of becoming their base holders.

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That is quite incorrect, as only the governments of Poland and "the Czechs", as you call them, are in favour of American bases.
The public opinion is split up about it, if not in clear opposition of any further American engagement in their country (like in Czechia).

Oh, and "attacking" can mean Cyberwar, too, as we saw last month!

Vrtbovska Zahrada:

That is quite incorrect, as only the governments of Poland and "the Czechs", as you call them, are in favour of American bases.
The public opinion is split up about it, if not in clear opposition of any further American engagement in their country (like in Czechia).

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Of course you are right. It is what the governments want. Especially in Poland it is the personal and direct decision of the Kaczy?ski brothers to go against the "old Europe" and do the American bidding. There was a nice article in Der Spiegel some years ago with the title "Europe of the Egos". Then it was the ego of Schröder and Blair concerning the Iraq war, now it the Kaczy?skis! So, I am sorry, that I did not make clear that I ment the governments and not the people.

Gorbatsev (sp?) mentioned yesterday that 70% of the Czechs (people not government this time) are against the measure.

Putin uses the fear to get his way. Only this time no one's been poisoned (yet.)

Fear? Used by whom? Where?

The two leaders, at loggerheads for weeks ahead of the much-anticipated meeting, appeared friendly as they spoke on the grounds of the upscale resort here where the summit is being held. They stood so close they often touched.

"I'd like to confirm what the president of the United States has said except for one thing: I've not said that friends do not act in this way," Putin said, to which both laughed heartily and jostled each other.

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Ye? New Cold War?

If I was mean (I don't know yet in which mood I am), I could say that you from the other side of the pond could also theoretically just sit back, relax, and watch the show if anything happens...after all, it is soooo far away.

(Thanks that you seem to care anyway! )

Putin's suggestion for a site in Azerbaijan is absolutely amazing. No matter what happens now, Russia wins this. This is proper checkmate. The US agree to it, Russia wins. The US does not, the US loses ground in Europe even more and... Russia wins! Take notes, G.W. ! This is how politics works.

EDIT:

Very nice quote from the daily show:

(not verbatim) "When told of Putin's suggestion to place the missile defense system in Azerbaijan, he responded that he will study it. Which in Bush's terms means... he'll find Azerbaijan on a map"