The Great Aurorean War

The Aurorea

Registered
TNP Nation
The_Aurorea
THE GREAT AUROREAN WAR
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Timeline in chronological order:
  1. Worst Drought in the Aurorean History; The Aurorean government blames the Scalvians for "tempering with their water supply"
  2. Largest Aurorean incursion into Scalvian Airspace
  3. Esthursia condemns the Aurorea for the unlawful violation of military airspace with Scalvia; raises military alertness of Esthursia
    1. The Aurorean government condemns the heightened military alertness of the Esthursians in a recent televised speech
  4. Volshan Autocracy Synod approves deployment of more troops to border as tension grows with the Aurorea
    1. The Aurorean Ministry of War issues increased military buildup between the Aurorean–Volshan border
  5. The Scalvian Air Force confirms, Aurorean fighter shot down over Scalvian airspace
  6. The Aurorea resumes military exercises near Scalvian–Aurorean Border
    1. The National Council of the Aurorea and the Presidential Leadership Council of the Aurorean Democratic Republic has released a word of their own condemning the Hessaist Aurorean government
  7. The Aurorian Financial Times reports a significant downturn in investor confidence in Volshan due to increased military escalation
  8. Scalvian President speaks to the nation; Promises no territorial compromise with the Auroreans and vows to defend their borders
  9. Aurorean Military Holds Artillery Drills Miles From Volshan Border
  10. High Minister Edward Wescaster of Esthursia holds a national address on the "wider Aurorian situation"
  11. The Aurorean launches an invasion into the Scalvian Federation
    1. President Bartolomeu Barth's speech on the Invasion of Scalvia
    2. El Presidente of Costa Azura Speaks on the Scalvian-Aurorean Conflict, asserts Costa Azura will "maintain neutrality at all costs..."
    3. Volshan Autocracy declares war on the Aurorea
  12. Wilfred Frome of Esthursia condemns the attack on the Scalvian Federation; Welcomes all refugees that are seeking to escape the war
  13. Scalvian news reports of a possible nuclear attack by the Auroreans into Scalvian territory; advises all to seek shelter immediately
    1. The nuclear missile attack has been confirmed to be false by the Scalvian news
  14. Premier Alexi Carlov of Belska speaks about the new Conflict in Aurorea; condemns Aurorean military aggression
    1. Comrade General Secretary Sasha Denvikov on the Situation in Ethia; condemns the actions of the Fascist Government of the Aurorea
    2. New Acting General Governor of Tardine, Klaiden Sergoniani Risvie, talks about the defeat of their enemies in their civil war and condemns the Aurorean government; Refuses to acknowledge the Auroreans as "Aurorians"
    3. Alveris's Executive Council condemns the attack of the Aurorean into Scalvia
    4. Mondic government of Mondari condemns the attack of the Aurorean into Scalvia; hopes for peace in the continent
  15. Volshan air force conducts operation "Ethian Night"; successfully strikes the Aurorean's southern command's airbases, crippling their air power
    1. Volshan perspective of Operation Ethian Night
    2. Aurorean perspective and Excerpt from Baat Saadya's diary, a Çavuş (Sergeant) of the Aurorean Southern Command Ttwa Eil Airbase
  16. Volshan successfully attacks the Aurorean border town of Tel Khitana
  17. Esthursian government unveils "total sanction" of Aurorean economy
  18. Volshan executes Operation Foebreaker into the Aurorean industrial region

Here is also the thread for the Scions of Volshan written by Tim:
Scions of Volshan
It has all the Volshan perspectives of the Great Aurorean War and is an absolutely great read for anybody wanting to read up on the Volshan perspective!

For the chronological order of The Aurorean's perspective of the war, look over here:

For the chronological order of The Scalvians' perspective of the war, look over here:

For the chronological order of the Volshan's perspective of the war, look over here:

For the Markov Group assessment of the war, look over here:

And here are some graphics for the war:
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OOC: Hi there and welcome to our Great Aurorean War thread! This first post would mainly serve as the "content" page of sorts for Me (@The Aurorea), Fresh Produce (@Predice), and Tim (@North Timistania) and would also try to link all the various posts regarding this war in a chronological timeline. It would also probably be the place where we would add some of the graphics for the war.

This would be the first big RP project I have ever worked on and I am glad to have the lovely opportunity to be working with two great RPers (and possibly more depending on who else gets involved). If you have any feedback at all, do shoot them my way! Oh, and thanks for reading this!
 
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The Aurorea

Registered
TNP Nation
The_Aurorea
'Let me not pray to be sheltered from dangers, but to be fearless in facing them.
Let me not beg for the stilling of my pain, but for the heart to conquer it.'
Nāṣerutā 6:11

Tel Khitana, Roheen
20 July 2022
0200 hrs

Hours before the Volshan Offensive on Tel Khitana

"Final checks on the Taar-5 rifles."
"Check."
"Final checks on ammunition magazines and grenades."
"Check."
"Final checks on the peanuts and bir?"
"Hahaha... check and check."
"Alright then, I'll see you four in the morning. Try not to get yourself into trouble with that." the armourer finished with a grunt and slammed the shutter closed.

"Pssh... The man is unfriendly as ever." scoffed Corporal Raziel as he picked up the last of his magazine and stuffed it in his cuirass tactical vest.

"Well, can you even blame the guy?" Private Bartlett replied indifferently. He tapped his magazine on his helmet twice and stuffed it in his cuirass. "I'd be dead inside too if I had to sit here all day, 24/7, staring at a bunch of sweaty know-it-alls destroy his hard work every day."

"That doesn't make him any less of a bastard though," said Private Dagon with a sneer as he counted his bullets in his magazine. "Least he could do is give us grunts some basic respect—"

"What are three morons talking about," Sergeant Jagur interrupted as he grabbed his share of magazines on the countertop. "First off, Çavuş Bat has been stationed here longer than any of you knuckleheads were crawling in your playmats sucking on your mama's teats."

Jagur frowned as he picked up his last magazine. He shined it under the dim armoury light, the dent on the magazine visibly sticking out like a sore thumb. He clicked his tongue and sighed before continuing his speech. "Secondly, you don't get to talk about respect if you're talking about a man behind his back. That's not only cowardly; it's hypocritical."

Jagur slowly started removing the bullets from the dented magazine. "You want to know why Çavuş Bat is mad at the time?" asked Jagur as he tossed the empty magazine onto the countertop.

"Like look at this garbage. All you idiots do is shoot, eat, and sleep without care for the world. Meanwhile, your equipment gets dirty, rusty, and damaged, and Çavuş Bat has to fix your mess, only for you morons to damage it again." Jagur scoffed. "Give thanks to Hayyi Rabbi that a snarky response is all you get, for if it were up to me, I would dock the pay of anyone who keeps damaging my equipment!"

The atmosphere turns into a quiet, awkward silence, with only the sound of clinking equipment and velcro straps. Raziel, uncomfortable with the awkward silence because of what he had started, tried to bring up a new topic. "So... have you guys heard what happened at Ttwa Eil?"

"Oh yeah, I heard of it," replied Dagon with his ears perked. "Wasn't there a Volshan air attack that killed many of our soldiers?"

"Yeah, I heard about that too," Bartlett chimed in. He glanced around him and whispered with his hand covering his mouth. "Supposedly, the Volshan destroyed one out of every four planes too. I've even heard from one of my buddies there that our Mushir is pissed. Said he has issued an information lockdown; everybody in that airbase is now stuck without medical supplies and forced to clean up the damages."

"Don't be daft," said Jagur uninterestedly as he finished inspecting his last magazine. "The reason this information has not been made public is simple: The war between the Scalvians, Volshans and us has only just begun. Morale has never been higher as we have the moral high ground in this conflict. If we let our people know about our devastating loss right from the get-go, our brothers and sisters in arms would lose faith in our top brass and their decision-making skills, and our morale would drop immediately. In such a case, it would be in our best interest that this matter stays hidden from the public's knowledge as long as possible."

"But what about the soldiers that are dying as we speak?" Dagon asked dumbfoundedly at Jagur's curt response. "Are we just letting them suffer with no help whatsoever?"

"Do you really think that our glorious Mushir would just let our soldiers die pointlessly like that? It is more than likely that the heavily injured got moved back to HQ, and the ones left on the ground are those that could still fight." Jagur concluded as he aimed his unloaded rifle at a wall to check his sights.

"Anyway, that's enough pointless chatter. I'm going to head out and have a smoke first, and I want you all to be done in 3 minutes tops."

"Yes, Çavuş Jagur!"
 

Predice

TNPer
July 8th, 2022
Ukmėrge, Tauroga, Scalvia
0645 hours
Morning of the Aurorean invasion


“Sign here please,” echoed the words of Ensign Taavi Meerits, as he presented the man with a paper for the shift, with every serviceman of the company’s name, with two boxes next to each name, marked on top with ‘RECEIVED’ and ‘RETURNED’

“Of course,” echoed the response of Senior Sergeant Mario Tromp.

He quickly signed his ‘RECEIVED’ box for the day.

“Great,” Meerits said, as he briefly left the window. It wasn’t long before he returned with the A-18 Rifle.

“She’s all yours for the day. Well taken care of by the way, I’ve been in conscript units before, and it was hell,” Meerits continued.

“Tell me about it. Snotnosed 18 year old kids is why I transferred to the Border Guard. Couldn’t take it anymore.” Tromp responded in agreement.

“Say, you’re early this morning. The Shift change isn’t for another half hour. What’s the rush?” Meerits inquired curiously.

“Yeah I’m a bit early. Šaulys called, said he had a family emergency. Asked me to come in early. I owe him a bit of a favour, so I came over.” Tromp answered as he checked the rifle.

“Yeah. Crazy shit in general going on. You can hear the Aurorean engines all the way here.” Meerits said, quite matter-of-factly.

“They’ve been very jumpy since our flyboys shot one of them down. Well… even more jumpy than usual I guess.” Tromp responded.

“Man, I have a feeling that some shit will go down today,” Meerits said, forebodingly, before continuing, “I really fucking hope that they don’t try anything, but I have a pit in my stomach. Something’s gonna happen. Stay safe man.”

“I will. Have a good day man.” Tromp responded as he headed out.

Sergeant Šaulys was waiting for him outside, and quickly went to give Tromp a hug, which he accepted.
“Thanks for showing up early man, my wife’s gone into labour, I have to get to the hospital like pronto.” He said as he embraced his friend.

“Don’t mention it, bud, but we’re even now.” Tromp responded, chuckling.

“Sure. But look I’d chat longer if I could. Have a good one man.” Šaulys said as he headed inside to sign out his rifle.

“Alright man, see you soon. Don’t be a stranger!” Tromp responded as he waved to Šaulys.


And so began just another day at the Ukmėrge border point. None of these men knew, that in just three hours they, and by extension their country would be fighting for their lives.
 
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North Timistania

RolePlay Moderator
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Introduction

The human mind is a far greater athlete than any gymnast, even when faced head-on with an apocalyptic reality it will continue to tell itself something otherwise is occurring. Time and time again we tell ourselves the same comforting lies, that our Neighbours do not want war, that they will be reasonable. That self-made delusion helps us sleep at night and it is in that unconscious state that we remain, right up until the moment that reality violently forces us awake.

We stare in white-knuckled horror at television screens overflowing with images of oncoming destruction, we gaze wide-eyed with hands over agape mouths and we ask that naïve question.

“How could this have happened?”

The signs of war were always there, of course, we just didn’t want to see them, we tell ourselves dictators will know when to stop, that ambition and greed have rational limits. However, time and time again these soft, warm, assumptions of the world are proven untrue and when the mirror of illusions shatters, we are all cut by the falling shards.



Oscium

Northern Volshan

July 8th 2022

0700 Hours



Larthe Lucini had witnessed many terrible days in his 62 years of life, it came with the territory, life on the borders of the autocracy had guaranteed that. He had lived through the air raid sirens, whimpered in a darkened bomb shelter and when the incursion had begun, he had fought in defense of his homeland. The Aurorean incursion had left him with a hand that never quite gripped the same and a leg that could barely hold his weight, still he had survived everything the frontier could throw at him.

Even now in his twilight years Larthe continued to work, continued to serve his country in his own small way, his leg might have been crippled but his mind was still sharp as a Volshan spatha. Besides, work was an anchor, it gave him an excuse to forget about that lonely homestead he called home. Working as a police dispatcher rarely fazed Larthe, he’d already seen far worse, but today was like nothing he had witnessed.

The phone line had been ringing off the hook all morning, an endless stream of panicked calls, the line had crashed repeatedly as the volume of calls grew too numerous. Sharing a border with the Aurorea tended to inure people to the frequent military stunts that the Barthe regime pulled, but today Larthe could hear the fear in people's voices. Normally stoic farmhands and frontiersmen sounded just as frightened as the housewives and elders who were calling in.

“No ma’am I can assure you there are no Aurorean troops massing near the town, no ma’am if that were to happen, we would know” Constable cluclina said in a placating tone as a panicked female voice buzzed on the other side of the phone

Larthe couldn’t really blame people for being scared, the signs of danger were everywhere, the recent violation of Scalvian airspace, the Aurorean presidents' delusional speeches and now an entire Phalanx of Volshan troops redeployed to the border. People were right to be scared, the situation was getting more combustible by the hour and it would only take one miscalculation to turn the whole thing into a firestorm.

“These callers are getting out of hand!” Cluclina muttered irritably as he set the phone down

“People tend to act that way when they hear news of armies massing at their neighbors' borders” Larthe said matter-factly

“Surely this is just another political stunt, an attempt to scare the rest of Ethia into providing economic aid, they would be risking too much going to war!” Cluclina declared confidently

“Maybe and I hope for everyone's sake you are right, but you should never look at a desperate man and expect him to react in a rational manner” Larthe said with a weary smile

Cluclina wasn’t a bad person, not even close, but he had studied at some fancy university and now thought he had the world figured out. He was the sort of man who subscribed to all the latest publications, could quote the Auroran financial times like religious scripture and spent his free time watching GNN. He believed that war was impossible in a modern world of linked economies.

Larthe often thought about the generational differences between himself and his colleague, the former had lived through the incursion whilst the latter had only ever known peace. Fighting the Auroreans on Volshan soil had removed any rose-tinted assumptions from Larthe’s mind, the Barthe regime wasn’t interested in peace they would keep trying to subjugate their Neighbours until they succeeded or were deposed. But according to Cluclina all they needed was more Aurorean products on Ethian shelves to tame the beast.

“Look, I know you fought in the Incursion but honestly that was nearly half a century ago, the Aurorean’s would lose as much from this war as the rest of us, it would destroy their economy!”Cluclina proclaimed as trying to convince himself as much as Larthe

“And if their economy was already a mess?” Larthe said quizzically

Cluclina didn’t answer, Larthe grabbed his cane and rose with a pained grunt from his chair, he did his best to ignore the dull ache in his left leg as he did so. He needed to get away from this room, needed to reach out to people he had left at arm's length too long, his instincts were screaming for him to run. He knew the feeling all too well, that racing anxiety that proceeded something truly terrible, war was coming he knew it.

“Where are you going?” Cluclina asked in a surprised voice

“Need to make some calls,” Larthe said as he left the room

He would call his son first, Teitu had been stationed at the airbase for months now, he needed to hear his boy speak and say things that should have been said long ago. He had not been a good father, he had been a worse husband, but right now he needed to know people lived and were safe. He would even call his ex-wife, ask her to make the necessary offerings and say the right prayers, their son would need them. He reached for the phone and began to dial.



*************************************************************************************

Joint Military Command

Theunis

Southern Volshan

8th of July

0800 Hours




General Thana Masu stared at the screen with growing unease, the satellite photos painted a grim picture, The Aurorean military was on the move, they would cross the border into Scalvia in the next hour. The size of the enemy force was immense, convoys of Armour stretching for miles and thousands upon thousands of infantry in tow.

Volshan intelligence had been watching the buildup for weeks, at first everyone had assumed this was just another piece of Barthist theatre, the political equivalent of a child's tantrum. Everyone had hoped that it was just a desperate attempt to get aid, but that theory had quickly fallen out of Favour when the scale of the mobilizations became apparent. There could be no doubt anymore, the Aurorean’s were invading Scalvia and soon all of Ethia would be forced to pick sides.

Reaching for the phone Thana dialed the Zilathe’s number, the head of government would need to be informed of the growing crisis. Arnthe was not a military man but he knew when to listen, it was a quality that made him an easy master to work for, she hoped that he was in a suitably pliant mood today.

“General? What can I do for you?” Zilathe Arnthe asked in a grandfatherly voice

“Sir we have a developing situation on the Scalvian border” Thana said eyes still fixed on the chaos on the screen

“How bad?” Arnthe asked

“The Aurorean military is mounting a massive offensive, their forces will cross the Scalvian border within the hour” Thana replied trying to sound calm

“Aurora help us, general I want hourly reports on the situation and put the military on the highest alert” Arnthe said his voice filled with a tone of shock

“Yes sir” Thana replied obediently

“I will be calling the Synod for a closed session, for the moment though we need all eyes on that border, good luck general,” the Zilathe said before hanging up

“Auvoi preserve us,” Thana said under her breath

She looked at the screen one last time, the Scalvian border seemed so peaceful, soon the tranquility would be broken by explosions and screams. Thana couldn’t help but feel utterly impotent, even if the Synod voted to come to Scalvia’s aid in record time it was too late, those trapped on the border were doomed.
 
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Aestii

Citizen
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AUROREAN-SCALVIAN WARNING UPDATE: INITIAL AUROREAN OFFENSIVE CAMPAIGN ASSESSMENT
July 08, 2022 - Press TMG

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Download the PDF

Adam Lippmaa, Timmithius Commidus, Pikad Said, and Leonid Didyk

July 08, 4:00 pm SST (12 hours after the initial invasion)

The Aurorean President Bartolomeu Barth began a large-scale invasion of Scalvia on July 08, likely aimed at a complete regime change and the occupation of Scalvia.
His claimed objective to fend off Scalvian “aggression” and “espionage” is a transparent cover for an unprovoked war of aggression to occupy a neighbouring state. Barth and Shteyner media continue to deny that the Aurorean invasion is a war of aggression, instead describing their actions as a stalwart defence against Scalvia. [1] Barth’s messaging is likely aimed at a domestic Aurorean audience, which the Shteyner has been preparing for in the weeks prior to the invasion. [2][3][4] Aurorean forces remain much larger and more capable than Scalvian’s conventional military. The Aurorea will likely defeat Scalvian regular military forces and secure their territorial objectives in the coming days or weeks if Barth is determined and willing to pay the cost in blood and treasure.

Key Takeaways
  • Scalvian Border Guards are slowing Aurorean offensives on all axes of advance other than an Aurorean breakout into the Extreme Easter Vaiga border. Aurorean failure to ground the Scalvian air force or cripple Scalvian command and control is likely enabling these initial Scalvian successes.
  • Scalvian forces are contesting the Trans-Scalvian Highway near the Lais Range, as of 9.30 pm SST. Aurorean AAF (Airborne) troops landed at Aukštojas have also failed to capture the highway leading to the Eleonora Kaminskaitė International Airport. Scalvia’s contestation of the roads to the airport deprives the Aurorea of any location from which to airlift forces onto Dogaži’s western flank overnight.
  • On the Southern Front, Aurorean forces rapidly advance west from Amreen and Qindeel, overrunning initial defences by the Scalvian Border Guards. Their deepest penetration to date is about 20* kilometres.
  • Scalvian forces have begun transferring their troops via rail in Selia and Vaiga towards the Aurorean front in the east. Footage captured by citizens shows the Scalvian forces moving east by rail. [5] The Scalvian 1st Mechanised Brigade stationed at Camp Druskinikai are expected to reinforce the Taurogan militia battlegroups stationed in the Lais Range (Northern Front), while the 12th Mechanised Brigade of the Scalvian Reserves would be the quickest to be mobilised at Camp Bakubo. They are expected to reinforce the Extreme Eastern Vaiga Front in a few days.
  • Aurorean forces likely seek to cut off Scalvian troops on the line of contact in Dogaži by targeting the Trans-Scalvian Highway in the Lais Range. At this time, Aurorean frontal assaults have taken some territory in the Lais Range where Scalvian forces resist fiercely.
Aurorean military operations began with a short and incomplete air campaign on July 08 around 4:00 am Eras Standard Time targetting Scalvian air defences, supply depots, and airfields across the Selian and Vaigan front. However, Scalvian air defences and Svjiiatys air superiority fighters held the technological and aerial advantage over the Aurorean TJAF-12 fighters and managed to foil the Aurorean air campaign. Large portions of the Sccalvian Air Force remained unmolested and operational while the Scalvian command remained intact, having given orders to reassign all available ground forces to reinforce the front.
  • Malorian defence officials estimate initial strikes comprised over 100 missiles, including short- and medium-range ballistic and cruise missiles. The Scalvian National Emergency Service reported a possible nuclear strike that was proven false after a few hours. [6][7]
  • The Aurorea did not successfully ground the Scalvian air force or cripple the Scalvian armed forces, enabling several Scalvian successes on July 08. The Markov Group incorrectly forecasted that any Aurorean offensive would begin with a concentrated air and missile campaign to cripple the Scalvian command, control, and infrastructure.
  • The Aurorean failure to comprehensively strike key Scalvian assets comes as no surprise as Scalvian military forces have prepared extensively for another armed conflict with the Aurorea. Aurorean operations are expected to face stiff Scalvian defence.
  • As of July 08, 4:00 pm SST, the Scalvian military has reportedly shot down seven* Aurorean aircraft and helicopters.
  • The Aurorea has not demonstrated its full air and missile capabilities, likely in anticipation of armed Volshan intervention from the south. The Aurorean Southern Command are building defences along the border, and armed drills continue.
Scalvian forces are currently contesting the Lais Range, 20* km southwest of Dogaži, against Aurorean AAF (airborne) and armoured infantry troops likely from the 98th “HaEsh” Paratroopers Division and 162nd Armoured Brigade as of 4:00 pm SST after several unsuccessful counterattacks earlier in the day. Aurorean Northern Command have yet to make enough headway to commence their alleged assault on the Eleonora Kaminskaitė International Airport (Dogaži’s primary international airport), west of Dogaži. Scalvia’s contestation of Aukštojas prevents the Aurorea from airlifting reinforcements to isolate Dogaži from western Scalvia, as feared earlier in the day.

Aurorean ground forces are advancing on three primary axes, discussed in turn below:
  1. Tauroga
  2. Southwest Tauroga
  3. Extreme Eastern Vaiga
1) Tauroga axis: The Aurorean Northern Command in Lais is advancing on the Taurogan capital of Dogaži through the Lais Range, likely seeking to isolate Dogaži. Aurorean forces have made some progress into the Scalvian territory of the Lais Range. Still, heavy fighting by the Scalvian Borders Guards and the five regiments of the Taurogan Militias had prevented the Aurorean from successfully holding onto any border territories for long.
  • Scalvian forces reported halting the Aurorea’s offensive by elements of the 162nd Armoured Brigade into Dogaži County from Lais, roughly 60* km south of Dogaži, including fending off an reconnaissance platoon of the 934th Topaz Battalion.
  • Aurorean force likely intent to cut Dogaži off from western Scalvia through a drive down the Trans-Scalvian Highway in the Lais Range. The failure of Aurorean airborne forces to secure Aukštojas in the north has also impeded this envelopment.
2) Southwest Tauroga axis: Aurorean forces, including confirmed elements of the 36th Armoured Division, are conducting a frontal assault on Southwest Tauroga from Qindeel. Scalvian forces are temporarily halting Aurorean advances, but Aurorean forces will likely enter Southwest Tauroga before the end of the week.
  • Heavy fighting is currently ongoing on critical roads leading from the Aurorea to Southwest Tauroga. Scalvian border guards and militia groups are inflicting casualties on Aurorean tanks using Indigenously built M95 TATM systems. Elements of the 36th Armoured Division were spotted near the border of Selia at 5:00 pm SST (Scalvian Standard Time). The Markov Group cannot confirm at this time the extent of Aurorean advances into Southwest Tauroga.
  • Aurorean forces have additionally crossed the northeastern border of Southwest Tauroga at several points. Scalvian forces appear to be conducting fighting withdrawals.
3) Extreme Eastern Vaiga axis: Aurorean forces, likely elements of the 12th Armoured Division, are making their most significant territorial gains advancing north from Amreen. Aurorean forces have reportedly penetrated to a depth of a least 20* km and are likely seeking to cut off Scalvian forces on the line of contact and/or drive them out of their prepared defensive positions, forcing them to fight in the open.
  • Aurorean forces achieved limited advances in Extreme Eastern Vaiga.
  • Scalvian forces last reported they were conducting a tactical withdrawal along the entire line of contact at 5:00 pm SST.
  • The Markov Group cannot confirm reports of any Aurorean MoW claims that the Extreme Eastern Vaiga front is in complete Aurorean control. Initial reports of such claims appear to be untrue. The Aurorea may wait until forces in the Southwest Tauroga Axis have secure terrain in their frontal assault before attempting to push further deeper into Scalvian territory.
Immediate items to watch
  • The Aurorea has not demonstrated its full air and missile capabilities, likely in anticipation of armed Volshan intervention from the south. However, it retains the ability to do so by moving elements of the Aurorea’s Southern Command into the Central Command.
  • Aurorean Airborne forces may successfully secure the northern end of the Trans-Scalvian Highway from Aukštojas overnight, enabling the Aurorea to make a pincer attack on the Trans-Scalvian Highway from the north.
  • The Aurorea will conduct more air campaigns to ground the Scalvian air force.
  • The Aurorea will likely conduct additional rounds of air and missile strikes in the coming 24 hours.
  • Scalvia would likely reinforce the Aukštojas airbase defence troops to prevent the Aurorean Airborne forces from capturing the Airbase. Expect militia battlegroups from Tauroga to assault the grounded elements of the Aurorean Airborne forces in Aukštojas.
  • Scalvia would try to use its air force to strike the Aurorean artillery brigades should the Aurorean Air Force fail to achieve their air campaign objectives.
  • It remains unclear how much of its total strength the Aurorean military has committed at this time.
* Items marked with an asterisk are subject to change

[1] https://abs dot com/president/news/13223134

[2] https://abs dot com/aurorea/news/221444

[3] https://abs dot com/military/news/11763134

[4] https://abs dot com/military/news/7193134

[5]
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(Footage captured by citizens shows the Scalvian forces moving east by rail)

[6] https://em dot gov dot sc/emergency/news/1125

[7] https://em dot gov dot sc/emergency/news/1126
 
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North Timistania

RolePlay Moderator
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Initial Assessment of the potential for a Volshan Intervention
Timmithius Commidus, Adam Lippmaa, Pikad Campong Gatchalian, and Aðalsteinn Eks


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JULY 9th, 5:00 PM SST

The Aurorean President Bartolomeu Barth began a large-scale invasion of Scalvia on July 08, likely aimed at a complete regime change and the occupation of Scalvia. In the hours since the invasion began, there have been multiple developments both on the diplomatic and military front, in the midst of widespread international condemnation the southernmost neighbor of the Aurorea, the Volshan Autocracy presents a potential second front for the war.

Key Takeaways
  • Despite a fierce opening offensive, the predicted collapse of the Scalvian military has not eventuated, resistance remains fierce and Aurorean forces have struggled to seize vital objectives.
  • The Aurorean forces have thus far failed to achieve air superiority over Scalvian airspace, this has opened potential avenues for counter-attack and asymmetrical warfare.
  • Closed sessions in Volshan and the UAS are currently underway, they are unlikely to bear fruit in the immediate present but may spell greater interventions in the near future.
  • Aurorean forces appear to have been unprepared for the level of resistance the Scalvian forces have presented. Scalvian units have been successful in slowing down and in some cases completely halting advances by the Aurorea into Scalvia.
  • Scalvian successes are being broadcast to the Volshan public via social media, streaming services, and mainstream news, these victories are likely to increase public support for intervention.
1) The sudden and unprovoked invasion of Scalvia present both a major dilemma and opportunity for the Synod, this is exacerbated by existing historical grievances within the Volshan autocracy towards the Aurorea.
  • Political support for intervention is currently high with only a small minority in the Synod currently advocating for negotiation or sanctions.
  • The Volshan public still remembers the trauma of the 1974 incursion war which left thousands dead and displaced over a million Volshan citizens. Revanchism and support for military action is popular amongst the general public with a recent poll suggesting over 70% of Volshan citizens would support action against the Aurorea.
  • Relations between Volshan and Scalvia have traditionally been warm and cooperative, this will likely reflect in the attitudes of the public toward support for military action.
  • The Volshan military has been modernizing for the better part of 30 years in preparation for renewed conflict with the Aurorea.
  • While he has long portrayed himself as a pragmatic moderate who eschews partisanship, the current Zilathe Arnthe is known to maintain an inner circle of advisors within both businesses, intelligence, and military branches. The Zilathe is likely to listen closely to any advice this collection of specialists gives and the prevailing sentiment amongst the security apparatus is that war with Aurorea is likely to be inevitable.

2) The frontier will likely decide the course of the wider war given the mountainous nature of terrain along the Volshan-Aurorean border:

  • Failure to secure air superiority would doom any potential offensive, there are few roads connecting the Volshan border to the Aurorea and any attempt to launch a ground offensive would be easily detected without the aid of a strong air campaign.
  • The Aurorea maintains a large southern command in the border region, this includes several large formations of air units and multiple garrisons.
  • The Volshan military would have limited time to secure a foothold in the Aurorean lands, any military action would need to be rapid and cripple the Aurorean forces before they have time to dig in and fortify.
  • Most Volshan logistical chains would rely heavily on air transportation due to the lack of roads in the border region.

3) There remains a small chance of Volshan politicians supporting a less belligerent stance but it is heavily dependent on the actions both of the Zilathe and of the minority groups within the Synod.
  • The messianist new way party vocally opposes military action, though they remain a fringe group with little influence.
  • A small coalition of socialists and libertarians have stated their opposition to any military intervention, however, they represent less than 3% of the total Synod.
  • Most of the Volshan industrial complex is in support of military action due to the potential for a commercial windfall that wartime production would create.
  • Barring a sudden and dramatic collapse of Scalvian resistance there is unlikely to be any major shift in public or political opinion.
4) Ultimately the ball remains largely in the Aurorea’s court, their actions in the coming days will do more to sway the Volshan nation to one course of action or another then any internal politics.
  • Aurorean forces are infamous for their political theatre along the volshan border, sudden military drills and artillery demonstrations have long served as a means of intimidating the Volshan public on the frontier.
  • Continuing acts of provocation would likely push an already angered public into full support for war, the Aurorean military could easily provoke a war if they take the wrong action in the coming days.
  • There are over two phalanxes (equivalent to two divisions) of Volshan troops stationed on the border, and any act of aggression by the Auroreans has the potential to spill over into full-blown hostilities.
  • The Harbi refugee communities in Volshan have strong opposition to the Aurorean regime, they are likely to become more visible if the Aurorean's continue to present overt hostility toward the Volshan autocracy.
Immediate items to watch
  • The Synod remains in closed session, their decision is likely to be heavily influenced by the course of war in the next few days.
  • If the Aurorean government chooses to double down on threatening or belligerent displays they risk provoking a full-blown war.
  • The UAS is unlikely to take strong action in the immediate future but its members could hold immense influence in the coming months.
  • Air power is likely to determine the course of battle regardless of which front it is utilized on.
  • Aurorean forces are currently attempting to seize the capital of Tauroga, failure to achieve this strategic goal quickly would create major delays in the wider offensive and give the Scalvian military an opportunity to regroup and mount greater resistance.
 

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"UAS silence on The Aurorea's invasion of Scalvia is deafening"
- The Aurorean News; July 11, 2022

"Foreign Ministry: UAS is more sensible than Scalvia"
- ABS News; July 11, 2022

"The Imperium falls into civil war but Esthursia is still not a power"
- The Aurorean News; July 12, 2022

"Andrenne is a bigger enemy than Esthursia. And they're far, half-way across the world. They're not even fighting on the ground. All the Andrennians have to do is give Scalvia the additional economic and military firepower. Honestly, I'm surprised, that nations could easily opt out from UAS mutual defense agreements. Then you have Sorovians acting like they're the biggest shit in this continent when they're really just shit. Instead of the total war on all sides, we get homosexual socialists and race-mixing hippies crying from the comforts of their safe space. You can't build international communities with members like these. Come on world! Give us a real challenge."
- Berti Chuma Tam; August 5, 2022

"Esthursian sanctions: Unclear effects on Aurorean economy"
- ABS News; August 8, 2022

"Sanctions from Esthursia is just the beginning"
- The Aurorean News; September 23, 2022

"What is the worth of the Aurorean-Esthursian trade? I'm the Information Minister of The Aurorea. I can tell you that Esthursia is certainly not one of The Aurorea's big trade partners."
- Berti Chuma Tam; August 10, 2022

"Esthursia: Geopolitical keyplayer or diplomatic inconvenience?"
- The Aurorean News; September 23, 2022

"This whole affair in Esthursia with Prydania shows that Esthursia can't do shit in their own backyard and would rather shit on a random country. I'm absolutely fine with that. The Aurorea will establish much-needed peace and order."
-Berti Chuma Tam; September 23, 2022

"Pikad Campong Gatchalian, Jolanthe...I get it when people don't get it right the first time. No disrespect towards my colleagues in the Markov Group. But doing it so many times after that? I don't know where to begin."
- Pikad Said; October 27, 2022

"Sorovia closing its borders would be a huge loss to them, not us. Our borders with Jolanta are still open. Unlike the authorities in Sorovia or Esthursia, the Jolanti government has been very consistent and very predictable. Economic relations between our two countries will certainly grow. Even in war, I see no reason as to why it wouldn't lead to mutual prosperity."
- Berti Chuma Tam; November 11, 2022
 
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