Esthursian News Home

Joint Ethian taskforce against Nero's Imperium headed by Esthursian navy deployed amid embargo

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"The purpose of this taskforce is primarily to establish a buffer-zone for refugees to flee the conflict safely and maintain a positive presence in the conflict"- Reeve for the Ellands, Alfred Frome

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The Crown Navy of Esthursia will be spearheading a taskforce in the Imperium as the situation continues to deteriorate, says Alfred Frome, following months of negotiations with counterparts in Hexastalia and Sorovia. Frome outlined the programme was to "ensure a belt of safety and security for refuge, and a democratic Aurorian presence on the territory, as well as vocalise our opposition to the ultranationalist illegitimate Nero regime."

Background

At 7h00 (07:00) this morning, the Esthursian government surprisingly announced a "Iolanta-style conspirators' asset seizure" for "sympathisers, perpetrators and accomplices of the Nero regime", both seizing the assets of and freezing trade with Nero's government and what the Esthursian government have deemed to be "aiding the regime's aims". Afterthane Chloe Atkinson told ENBC further information behind the embargo later today.
Relations have been at best strained, and at worst non-existent, between the Imperium and Esthursia following its coup d'état; the failure of Nero to "fully control all regions outside the capital", according to the Institute for Conflict in Auroria (IfCA), further negated the need for the Esthursian government to treat the Nero regime as an equivalent partner. Relations between Nero's so-called government and other regimes, particularly democracies, has deteriorated strongly since his accession, particularly with Arcanstotska, with warfare now taking place on land following deeply controversial and insulting diplomatic incidents from Nero's regime, added to targeted racism and brutality by his government at Arcanstotskans.

The taskforce

Naval units have made their way from the Aughtsey to Hexastalia and Sorovia, according to reports, and been deployed to the Imperium by this morning, according to government sources. Although the taskforce is being entirely transported through the Crown Navy, the taskforce's personnel and arms source from multiple nations; Hexastalia and Sorovia.

Government sources appeared slightly cryptic in stating the exact aims of the taskforce. One government minister in the lower Redery stated that the taskforce was a "show of strength against the illegal Nero regime", while another told Channel 2 News that it was "primarily to set up a refuge zone", with Chloe Atkinson appearing to back the latter reasoning mostly, although also explicitly condemning the Nero regime as previously quoted from ENBC Morning News. Alfred Frome, the Reeve for the Ellands (Esthursia's foreign minister equivalent) has stated that the "primary goal was indeed [to create a refuge buffer zone]" on Radio Weskerby this afternoon. Joint actions between the Ethian nations has grown in recent weeks and months, and with Esthursia increasingly moving out of the UAS circle and towards non-UAS allies, the taskforce not consisting of a single UAS member state is a "critical step" for this programme according to Daily Herald journalist Timothy Middleman; Esthursia will begin its transition period on 1 October, or this Sunday.

Similarly, insider sources suggested that the taskforce had been "months in planning", following potential intense negotiations and planning - all in continued secrecy - between the nations since "at the very least the middle of this year". Reeve for the Ellands, Alfred Frome, alluded to these claims in stating that "these things take time to formulate and enact."

Conclusion

The Imperium's situation continues to deteriorate as the Nero regime steadily loses its brutal grip on what it views as its populace amid an increasingly global pushback - however the taskforce and sanctions not only mark yet another Aurorian conflict's escalation, but one of the first post-UAS actions of the Esthursian armed forces. It remains to be whether the claims for a refuge zone can either be founded or possible.

New radical-right EPP leader faces parliamentary suspension after Weskerby demonstration turns violent

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Protests held against the government's education and LGBTQ+ policies by the right have been held in Weskerby, amid counter-protests, criticism and violence

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The Esthur People's Party held a little-known election last week following the resignation of Graham Ingley, who stated that his "primary aim as leader, to pull Esthursia out of [the Union of Aurorian States], was complete" and left his position after three years and two elections at its helm; and the winner was Gregory Knight. Knight is from the "Renewal Front" caucus of the Esthur People's Party; non-Conservative origin and typically on the radical-right. The name Renewal Front may ring a nasty bell for many - because it's very close to the Osynstric Renewal Front, which was a fascist organisation in the 1920s up until their failed March on Esthampton, the failure and counter-protests to which Esthursia has since celebrated yearly. Knight himself has spoken out against Union Day, calling it a "socialist propaganda tool" and "politicised holiday".

Gregory Knight was initially a candidate for the National Democrats - a party firmly on the far-right at the time of the late 2000s when it ran - and quickly became a major name in Yeaburn for his fervently anti-immigration rhetoric; the Renewal Front caucus offered him a route to candidacy in September 2022, and he has since become one of the EPP's thanes in the upper house, as well as one of the two Renewal Front members. The Renewal Front's role in politics suddenly arrived when they pushed the EPP as a party towards extreme Auroskepticism, which in the end culminated in a referendum; the failure of which was attributed to, in part, the radical-right roots and stigma associated with many Leave campaigners - Knight being a key figure amongst these.

Now, as we know, Esthursia has since left the UAS anyway (having left last Sunday and entered a transition period), and the far-right has not disappeared or skulked away - instead, they appear to be using the departure as a springboard amongst disenchanted right-wing voters in deprived areas. The arrival of as many as 0.5-1 million refugees in the last two years, amid a steep increase in immigration thanks to increased customs and visa deals, and a globalist outlook by post-2010 governments, have all suddenly culminated in fuelling the fire for the radical-right's drum-beating. Heritage was also involved, with Prince Robert said to be present at the event.

The EPP moves right

Esthursia's EPP were, under Graham Ingley, the vanguard of traditional Esthursian free-market conservatism. Graham Ingley stated that the departure was not one of "radicalism", but of "preservation", and that he looked up to William Greenwood's right-wing neoconservative leadership as Forethane in the 1980s. The EPP were certainly on the right, but they were hardly out of the norm - in fact many mainstream right-wing parties internationally looked at them as relatively moderate or watered-down.

The issue always was free-market economics, anti-globalism and opposition to the new Moderates' policy to back self-ID, third legal gender and same-sex civil unions; this bred a confused coalition of the traditional wing of the Conservative Union, and new entrants from the far-right grassroots. EPP's membership is increasingly to the radical-right, while it typically wins in regions where anti-globalist sentiment is highest, and sustains itself off of populism. This was a perfect storm, really, but the issue of Auroscepticism allowed Ingley to unite the coalition behind him until this year; with Esthursia leaving the UAS, the far-right - who felt emboldened by the arrival of foreign policy and immigration as policy issues - felt galvanised and ready to take on the old guard for the EPP.

Gregory Knight was exactly the type of new entrant; associated with the National Democrats in his youth, and now an EPP thane. Ingley's departure post-UAS left the door wide open, and he stood - unopposed by any on the right, but with a confused mix of old guard centre-right neoliberal types on his left. He won a slim majority, but his lead over the closest second-placer was 30%.

Knight's short leadership has so far already seen the party move against V3 and AN membership, against the Compass and Thekking programmes (for scientific research jointly and for student exchanges respectively), and to demand the abolition of all devolved bodies in Esthursia, centralising power back at Osynstry. Knight has also opposed recognition of minority languages, called for a "near-total lockdown of border control", and blamed Scalvia for "inciting gun violence at our southern periphery", over Esthursia's ongoing gun violence crisis. Latching onto anti-immigration rhetoric, Knight has also called for "all entrants to speak Atlish", and increasingly antagonistic connotations over minority groups, while he also has called for the "near-abolition of the welfare state", including privatising the UHCS, education, prisons, transport and utilities, stating that he will "slim down government from one of the largest to one of the smallest within one budget". A particularly strange feature of Knight's politics is that he fervently backs legalising the human organ trade, stating that "it is an easy way to make money for the impoverished to lift out of their situation." The EPP has also changed its policy on abortion, stating it should be "restricted as much as possible, including in the event of rape or risk to health", and called for the abolition of the Crown Bank of Esthursia, as well as civic banking more generally, stating that the "post-Einarsson consensus has criminalised finance". Knight has also antagonised "social justice", including for historically discriminated-against groups, and stated he "opposes feminism and the so-called LGBTQ+ movement". The EPP's sentiments have been called "extreme-right" by Rosemary Manning, who sarcastically "applauded" the party for "showing its true face as the sole refuge of open, empty-minded and arbitrary 15th century-style hatred", while Green-Left co-leader and Chancellor Edelard Burnside has called the party "fascists disguising themselves as libertarians"; numerous donors have switched to the Moderates, while some have defected to the Moderates or gone independent after his election.

The protest

(left) Protesters last night in Berworth, Weskerby

Organisation of the protest was sporadic but consistent; the March for Renewal, which pledged to "combat the consensus face-to-face in Berworth", advised its participants on the motives behind the riots over the course of the last few weeks.
It is about time that the socialist Asmontian consensus from both major parties was opposed and fought back against; no more refugees, no more denying biology, no more foreign military intervention, no more socialist economics, no more globalism, and no more Harold Osborne. Join us on the 4th, to make your voice one of many that Osborne's going to have to hear loud and clear; and we'll make him listen.

Last night, close to ten thousand protesters began a scheduled march on Berworth Square, in the district of the Houses of Berworth, Esthursia's legislative chambers. The protest quickly got out of hand when protesters began shouting slurs at the Weskerby Constabulary, while counter-protest demonstrations were held by Socialist Front over the homophobic, xenophobic and transphobic undertones of the march by the Renewal Front. Hundreds of arrests were made overnight, while some have been admitted to hospital for injuries associated with either the mayhem of the event, or with violent acts during said protest. The Asterland Crown Almshouse (ACA) stated at least one admitted last night received "life-changing injuries", and called for an "end to sectarian violence". The Weskerby Constabulary has confirmed that "charges will be made" over the violence.

Gregory Knight is known to have been present at the event, after "encouraging fellow EPP members to join in", with former leader Graham Ingley "expressing regret" over the event. Ingley made a statement over Twitcher on the riots.

Condemnation has been even stronger from the major parties; the Liberals, Moderates, Social Democrats and Green-Left have all put out statements condemning the Renewal Front and EPP, while Socialist Front applauded its members for opposing it, criticised the other parties for "standing by and watching fascists march on the capital", and reported a sharp uptake of members after the march. Home Minister Elizabeth Albany has been the government spokesperson on the matter, calling the protests "illegitimate, violent and disgusting", and referring to the Renewal Front as "fascists".
The parliamentary overseer has confirmed that it has "commenced investigations" into "multiple members of the legislature", who will not be named until proceedings conclude.

Aftermath

The prospect of a major party leader being suspended from the Houses of Berworth is one that has not been considered since 1959 when Olafn Arbjern's Nationalist Party was banned in entirety from standing by redoubled parliamentary watchdogs following his ultranationalist rule, yet already Knight is attempting to weaponise even the potential for his suspension, calling it a "political assassination". His followers are, in many ways, galvanised by the feeling their government is criminalising their beliefs, entrenching the problem even further.

Far-right politics has always been present on the sidelines in Esthursia - we don't have to remember far to remember Nick Nottingley's anti-immigration Osynstry-centric politics of the 2000s - however in the modern era, the far-right appears to be latching onto the Government's perceived globalism, openness to refugees and its increased involvement in military operations in Auroria. Auroscepticism is no longer so pertinent in Esthursian politics following its departure, and it seems that the former bastions of Auroscepticism have since receded, freeing up existing parties' momentum to be exploited by other factions. Whether the EPP suffers or benefits electorally from this sudden shift to the radical-right under Knight is unknown, while the feeling of Ingley - who left the Conservatives as a more radical conservative, but whose party has shifted beyond him to the point that many in the EPP consider him moderate - and old-guard EPP representatives is likely to be that of unease and bitterness over the loss of the party to the extreme faction - however, with people polling heavily against favouring the protestors and with other parties more or less united in strong condemnation and alienation towards the EPP's actions and march, perhaps Esthursia's democracy is merely being strengthened by the actions of a vocal few.

High Deemery strikes down ban on infant baptisms in unanimous scathing verdict

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"Banning the practice of pouring water over a child's head is not in-keeping with constitutional values," quipped one Doom, as Government not to appeal

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(left) Alison Havering KC, First Doom of the Esthursian judiciary, joined all six of her participating colleagues in finding the law incompatible with the Overlaw

The High Deemery stressed that "in other circumstances, the prohibition of religious actions being made on behalf of un-autonomous minors would likely be lawful or at least not unconstitutional, this law arbitrarily bans an act whose consequences are materially irrelevant to the act." The Childhood Autonomy Act 2022 was thus struck down in entirety, having only reached kingly assent last month.

The government had received broad criticism from religious groups and the opposition - however, notably, the Moderates abstained from voting on the matter. Interestingly, this is the first major law of Harold Osborne, himself a human rights barrister, to have been struck down in entirety - the action is relatively rare, having happened typically during crises during which leaders have a tendency to pass more restrictive legislation that skirts on the edge of constitutionality.

The court also heard a case against the ban on religious schools, however ruled that "the law would almost certainly not be deemed unconstitutional, and cannot be struck off before it reaches kingly assent."

The verdict

The Government of Osborne has been passing relatively secularist laws for quite some time - for instance, a ban on religious schools, which interestingly First Doom Alison Havering KC wrote would likely be constitutional and thus looks increasingly likely to pass into statute - however the ban on baptisms has drawn criticism from many across the political spectrum for being arbitrary, restrictive and illiberal. Rosemary Manning - whose opposition to the bill was relatively quiet during the legislative process - spoke in favour of the ruling, and criticised the Government for its handling of religious rights.
Other Dooms were even less enthusiastic over the law, with Guðmund Alrekursson KC stating it "seemed like a parody or something from political satire," and that the law "was dead on-impact the moment it reached the First Deeming building [Esthursia's high court building]," while Evelyn Aston-Johns KC commented that the Overlaw was "explicitly designed to prevent infringements as overt as these, whether intentional or misguided." Out of the seven who heard the case (from eleven in total on the High Deemery), all seven voted to strike down the law as unconstitutional, a rare occurrence, with the dissent being written by an external Doom from the official vote, Isaac Elton KC, who even wrote that the law "in his view was on the edge of constitutionality, and far beyond that of common sense."

Graham Ingley, whose party has publicly splintered into the EPP and far-right Renewal Front in recent days, bringing him back to the forefront of a reduced party caucus, has stated that the verdict "vindicates the EPP as the sole protectors of human rights in this country."
The law itself actually reached statute - a precondition for laws to be explicitly struck down by the High Deemery, though declarations of incompatibility can be ruled ahead of a law reaching kingly assent which conventionally halts the process - in late August of this year, to the anger of religious communities, including the Church of Athers, who called the law "an edict based on a millennium-old feud", while several councils insisted that they would not uphold the act, including the Borough of Atlington. Interestingly, Atlington Borough has a Green-Left majority administration, however its open anger at the national party position ("a stain on the record of every representative", according to Borough leader Patrick Ryland back during its passage) signalled a wider dissent on local levels over the law.

Forethane Osborne has not responded to the remarks directly, though his office confirmed he had "received information pertaining to the verdict"; a Government source responded to our request for comment, however, stating that although it "insisted the merits of children's autonomy were necessary in considering the law," it would not overrule the verdict and "affirmed its belief in a strong, independent judiciary to keep us in check." John Largan - who, along with many of his faction, were coincidentally not present during the voting process - has hinted that he (and many with him) opposed the law by publicly supporting the verdict by the High Deemery, stating that the Redbridge faction of the party "firmly believed in religious rights and freedoms, firmly believed in fighting for them, and in opposing injustices, thus welcomed the decision and its strength therewith in ensuring Esthursia remain a beacon of human rights." The Redbridge faction has typically stayed loyal to Osborne and his premiership, so even an implicit hit at government policy such as this may damage his image internally.

Conclusion

With the government stating it will not appeal the verdict, the law looks to have been pronounced dead once and for all; however the reputation of this Government amongst religious communities may be tarnished by this act, and calls into question whether Harold Osborne's government is truly on the side of human rights when it matters most to these communities - a question that may stick in the minds of some voters, and seemingly some notable members and representatives of his party as well, with the potential for more dissent and debate within the party ranks to continue.

Primary nominations triggered after King Arthur confirms plan for "de facto" Premier elections by January 2024

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"I will be ninety-four in January; that is plenty time enough for me to have lived, and now is time for me to begin to retire." - King Arthur VI

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King Arthur VI (left) has spoken in favour of moving forward with plans to democratise the head of state's powers
Eighteen months ago, King Arthur - then celebrating his second Diamond Jubilee and thus seventy-five years on the throne - announced that he would be the last King, taking the monarchy with him. Still going strong, one particular point has fired off the starting pistol for a race to nominate party candidates for the position; the election of a democratic representative directly to adopt most of the King's powers, though with the proviso of a veto held by the King.

This would be the first thing to resemble a democratic head of state in modern Esthursian history, and with the elections likely to take place in December 2023 - giving a "four-weeks probationary period" according to the King - the parties are jumping at the opportunity to elect Esthursia's first ever de-facto head of state.

The speech
The response and aftermath

A plethora of candidates have jumped at the opportunity; including the Social Democrats' Oscar Connery (RSD, moderate), Catherine Welburn (Osborne-aligned mid-leftist) and Iðunn Ström (New Left, hard-leftist), and the Moderates' Stephen Alborough (former leader of the CU and centre-right) and Jane Black (former Liberal and endorsed by the Liberal Moderate Committee / LMC). Amongst some of the others are independents Hrefna Blöndal and former UAS President Valter Belgræv, the EPP's Winston Hansley, and Heritage leader Prince Robert. Armston House has confirmed that the position is "open to all, but admissable to only those swearing oath to the Overlaw and its values."

Some politicians - such as Jeremy Wilson - have endorsed candidates, however both of the parties' leaderships have announced that they will not partake in the leadership contest, stating that they wish to "get on with the job of government, not politicking" in a joint statement by both Osborne and Manning. Manning's situation is particularly problematic; the candidacy of a former Conservative leader has incited anger amongst the Liberal Moderate Committee, while that of a former Liberal has stoked fears in the Moderates that their Conservative faction may be shunned on a national level. Osborne's party is no stranger to internal struggles, so his decision is equally unsurprising; New Left holds increasing influence amongst the membership, and the prospect of a candidate such as Iðunn Ström may frighten off some on the moderate wing as well as causing discontent in more old-guard circles, including that at the top of the party's leadership - the threat of Jeremy Wilson's momentum continuing will almost certainly be on the mind of the Forethane tonight.

Initial polling has suggested that 38% of people would prefer to elect a Social Democrat, with 30% preferring a Moderate, however "Independent" attained 21% of polled respondents and furthermore, 70% of voters responded "Strongly agree" to the statement "I have fears that this contest will become too factional, divisive and politicised." Renewal Front have commented on the matter, stating that the government had coerced the "aging King" into a republican state:
Conclusion

Whether or not Esthursia gets a partisan or non-partisan, left or right, leader - that may matter less than the fact it looks like the consensus, outside the far-right, is backing the King's move to a republic after his death. The King himself remains incredibly popular - with approval ratings as high as 94% in recent polls - however the monarchy as an institution is largely dependent on him, with just 61% having heard of his son and pre-2022 Crown Prince Llewellyn, and polling largely split before the 2022 Jubilee over the future of the monarchy after the King's death; it seems like Esthursia wants Arthur to press on, but without Arthur - a prospect increasingly real to the nation, with Arthur approaching his mid-90s and reducing his public duties - the monarchy may not be worth continuing in the minds of an increasingly anti-elitist, populist and socially-minded populace.

The reputation and strength of Esthursia's democratic system may also be tested, as the contest risks falling into division and populism, however the people of Esthursia may respond to this by electing an outsider; this is not a legislative election, and the traditional rules of such an election have never been written, leaving the result and frontrunners entirely up to the whims and beliefs of a public who are electing a Premier, a role that has never existed in Esthursia before.

Forethane's Askings; Aldævn 8, 2023

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A new programme has been detailed, with more scientific funding and co-operation across V3 and Hexastalia, while Osborne apologises over High Deemery case

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Background

Esthursia's Askings consist of twelve questions; one from a Citizens' Assembly representative, one from a Head of a select committee, and one from the public, with the other nine coming from inside the Thanage - six are from the Opposition leader, one from the third party's leader and two from backbenchers (one per "side", i.e. one government-aligned and one opposition-aligned).

Osborne began by condemning the far-right riots in Weskerby, which the Leader of the Opposition accorded to, and addressed the matter of gun crime in Esthursia, accusing the Opposition of hypocrisy in doing so amid a general fall in crime rates since the 2000s. The Government and right-wing EPP came to loggerheads over the issue of political radicalism, with Osborne accusing the EPP of enabling the far-right "for three years" but ignoring a question on far-left members of the government in doing so, stating that the legislature should "focus on what is [banging at the doors]".

A particularity of this week's Askings was the detailing of the Compass programme - a landmark V3-aligned scientific research endeavour boosting spending and co-operation between the V3 nations and Hexastalia - following a question by the Citizens' Assembly for Research representative Dr. Euan Afonwyn. The Compass programme has been relatively hush-hush from the government beyond new social media accounts for the body, however this week the Forethane detailed it as a wide-ranging scientific project encompassing both funding and joint overseeing bodies on research, education and science, as well as an as-yet unnamed new space agency.

The Government also confirmed it remained "in solidarity" with Sorovia, but also uncovered that it had established safe refuge lines for "stateless" refugees from Iolanta on the Sorovian border, as part of its peacekeeping operation on the borders, after a question from International Development Reeve and long-standing foreign policy guru John Largan, who also was the governing party's previous leader. It also confirmed that sanctions on its government would remain until the government was assured that discrimination had ended, and reiterated that the crisis could be "ended unilaterally" without an agreement, condemning the UAS for inaction and placation.

A question by Manning has since raised controversy - the Moderates have confirmed they are against victimless crimes being legalised, while Osborne reiterated existing government policy and refused to be drawn into "theoretical dispute".

Possibly the two most noteworthy events of the debate occurred towards the end - Manning's party has positioned itself to the right of the centreground, confirmed it supports university tuition fees (which has since attracted fierce criticism from the Liberals and caused a defection from one of its Ministers to the Liberal party), while Osborne attacked the previous government's record following the 2010 crash, while the two quoted figures - both suggesting rising problems with inflation, but also positive data on wage growth and economic growth. House prices falling and no tuition fees both attracted cheering by government benches, which led to a Speaker intervention; Manning has begun positioning herself as an "anti-deficit" politician, which has been attacked by the left for "enabling austerity", after Osborne quoted from a controversial 2022 INS study blaming austerity for being a major cause of 330,000 premature deaths in the 2000s. The other major event was a final apology on the controversial law on banning "infant baptisms", which Harold Osborne said was an "overstepping" of government policy, after being attacked by Rosemary Manning for compromising Esthursia's "image" and religious freedoms; the Government initially stood by its law but did not challenge the verdict.

Overall, neither major party will feel comfortable - Osborne handled the matter of the economy fairly easily with positive data (with the Moderates' economic reputation still poor and Social Democrats' very positive), but the final question clearly stung for the Government's reputation - but possibly may draw a line under it - while Manning's policy on tuition fees (despite its vagueness) has caused severe discontent. Major questions remain for the Moderates' survival if the liberal wing feels left out, and if George Balder's Liberal Party entices them back to the centre-left, with tuition fees broadly unpopular with the public. Were it not for the ongoing backlash over the High Deemery decision just days before this Askings, Osborne likely would have walked away happy, and may still feel he came out on top while also possibly calming down the dispute.

Transcript (some procedures truncated):

Baldrick Robinson (Social Democrat): "Will, Lord Speaker, the Forethane join me in condemning the appalling violence and hatred espoused by the Renewal Front and their puppeteer protest forced through the streets of Weskerby last week?"
Harold Osborne (Forethane, Social Democrat): "Yes, thank you, Lord Speaker; I of course condemn the hideous actions of the radicalised fearstokers, and applaud the actions of those who stood up to them in unison. It seems striking, Lord Speaker, that we are less than two weeks from Union Day, and yet here we are, speaking of the radical-right attempting to storm the centre of the capital based on ignorant and deeply wrong inclinations held by a select few extremist members of this society. We urge justice, calm and that the process of suspending those involved, Lord Speaker, presses on as scheduled."
Rosemary Manning (Moderate):"Thank you, Lord Speaker. I join with the Forethane in unequivocally condemning the shocking misjustices of the last week, and as with the Forethane, am following the recovery of those criminally attacked on the streets of our capital. It raises the question, however, of how safe we are in this country today; does the Government, Lord Speaker, have any plan of how to handle the current gun smuggling crisis at our southern border, or are we to believe that the safety of the people of this country is currently being taken for granted?"
Harold Osborne: "Lord Speaker, I have already outlined that both a review and internal consultation is in progress, and that negotiations are ongoing over Esthursia's exit from the Union of Aurorian States, which has ended the process of free movement over said border for the time being. The safety of our citizens has been, and thus remains, an utmost priority of this government; it is, after all, this Social Democratic government who cut crime rates back down from the shocking heights they reached under the austerity programme inflicted to policing and society more widely in the 2000s which cut our public services' ability to do their duties down to the bone; which, may I remind the Lord Speaker was executed as a political weapon against the people of this country by the members opposite - and despite the fact that we inherited a country bankrupt from mismanagement and deregulation, we are today able to accommodate a police force able to tackle insurgent issues such as gun crime. Lord Speaker, I politely remind the members opposite that politicking over events such as these cannot distract from the positive and consolidated record of this government from the doldrums of Conservative insecurity and misery!"
Rosemary Manning: "Is that supposed to be an answer, Lord Speaker, or an excuse, a delay? It is nigh on impossible to tell, because all this government seems to do is sit on its hands; whether it's on the UAS, or on the appointment of Jeremy Wilson as Chancellor, or on the war in Scalvia, all the members opposite do, Lord Speaker, is dither and obfuscate their duties while flailing their arms around in an attempt to seem active and responsive! There is no plan on gun crime, there is no prevention and there is no cure sought by this government, and Lord Speaker, I must ask the Forethane; are you ashamed that your indecision is costing lives?"
Harold Osborne: "Gun crime in this country is not actually above the levels it was under the opposite members' government, while crime more generally remains far below the typical rates seen under the Harding government, Lord Speaker, and the issue is more complex than simply clicking a button and finding all the smuggled guns. We have acknowledged that this is a rising problem needing immediate response, and that response is ongoing. The review into arming officers more routinely and readily, into the future border plans co-operating with Scalvian security forces, and into firearms training more widely amongst the police, remains in progress, as does the consultation into our next steps; which, instead of pontificating, I invite the Leader of the Opposition opposite, Lord Speaker, to participate in. Conversations are ongoing, and we will tackle this crisis, and I invite the members opposite to ditch political point scoring over people's lives, and start working with us to develop a cross-party plan, as we have offered numerous times."
Heather Lansburn (EPP): "Lord Speaker, this Government has been at the behest of trade unionism since the get-go, however in recent years its stances have gone from inane and obstructive to downright sinister. There are members within this Government who hold radical anti-capitalist views, and who have espoused them publicly, such as - if I may name names, Lord Speaker - the Reeve for Care, and one of the Afterthanes. Lord Speaker, what I ask to the Forethane is thus, is this extremism at the top of government ever going to be rooted out?"
Harold Osborne: "May I remind the member opposite that the Esthur People's Party accommodated the Renewal Front - a neo-fascist insurgent organisation with exactly the same name as the fascist insurgency of the 1920s - for three years, who have just stormed the capital's streets? Lord Speaker, I must say - how dare the member opposite placate and accommodate the far-right..."[interruptions from the EPP and Renewal Front caucus]Speaker: "Swigh! Swigh! If we do not have order in this House, I will call for the members concerned to be expelled. No further warning. Now, Forethane, you may resume." Harold Osborne: "Thank you, Lord Speaker; hear the desperate cries to attempt to drown out their complicity. To reiterate, the members opposite have placated and accommodated the far-right and their abhorrent methods of division, discrimination and hatred, and then ask of this Government to strip away the right to free expression on economic matters of its own ministers? Lord Speaker, the members opposite - I should hope - must focus on what is at the doors, banging and shouting slurs, not on the peaceable thinkers and doers inside dutifully making lives and Esthursian society better by their diversity of fair and undiscriminative opinion and open expression therewith."
Dr. Euan Afonwyn (Head of Research CA): "Thank you, Lord Speaker, for giving me this opportunity; I would like to thank the government for their continued efforts in funding research centrally as well as investing in education more widely, however a cloak has appeared over the mutterings of a Compass programme with our Aurorian partners - could the Forethane more explicitly tell us what the Compass programme will comprise of, if it does in fact exist?"
Harold Osborne: "I welcome Dr. Afonwyn into the chamber Lord Speaker, and yes, I can confirm that the Compass programme will be underway in coming weeks; it comprises of overarching bodies between our partners across Auroria, particularly the V3 and Hexastalia, to bring together our minds - and funds - to amount to more than the sum of our parts. This includes, Lord Speaker, a new joint space agency over all existing participants' agencies, new scientific and educational bodies linking together participant nations' research facilities, and a joint fund to be granted to as many participating researchers and endeavourers as possible, by applicable merit. Our departure from the Union of Aurorian States has allowed us to endeavour towards more close partnerships on a bilateral level, however this will mark a return to more continental and multilateral deals to enrich the field of science across these Aurorias. Government estimates have put the cost to Esthursia at 11 billion shillings per year, however this is likely to be balanced in terms of outgoings and incomings, such that a roughly level amount of revenue is reaching Esthursian researchers as is being spent by this government - and all for the common goal of advancing research and development jointly in unison. I hope this has addressed his question, Lord Speaker."
Þórólfur Hjaltan (Speaker, former Social Democrat, on behalf of the public): "Will Renewal Front be suspended from the Houses of Berworth for their participation in the riots in Weskerby on 4 October, and face criminal consequence?"
Harold Osborne: "Lord Speaker, I cannot speculate on the probability of Renewal Front - whether it be select members or the party as a whole - being suspended or expelled from this body, however I stress that this party supports both the independent process of parliamentary watchdog investigations, and also the extinguishing of fascism from every corner of democracy where it sadly exists, and balances the two in its policy. Criminal proceedings are out of my hands, Lord Speaker, but I sincerely hope that justice is received by those responsible for their actions in a proportionate and deterring manner to prevent any further miscarriages of action."
Merwyn Iuanech (Independence): "This body of parties has been pressing for increased devolved power for the constituent nations for years, and Lord Speaker, the Forethane has been in office for getting on to nine of those years. Will he, Lord Speaker, finally address the matter of treating Esthursia's diverse and disparate communities as nations, not regions, and giving us proportionate powers as a result, or is he no better than those he opposes?"
Harold Osborne: "Lord Speaker, nobody cares more about the decentralisation of power from the capital than me - from granting the councils additional powers, to regionalising transport and energy, to even giving the constituent assemblies additional tax-and-spend powers, oversight on social care, water and the separation of law between the different distinct strands in our national community, I have, and will continue to, stand diligently by my government's record of democratising, decentralising and devolving power, giving it to the communities who need it most and who know how to exercise it best, Lord Speaker."
John Largan (Soc Dem, Head of the Foreign Policy Committee, Reeve for Int.Dev.):"May I confirm with the Forethane, Lord Speaker, that we will continue to stand with Sorovia in solidarity against the manufactured humanitarian crisis against Iolanta until the two sides arbitrate a deal proportionate to the blame and responsibility of both sides that recognises the human lives involved as pawns in the conflict? Furthermore, I would like to clarify that the government is continuing to pursue safe routes for fleeing stateless refugees from Iolanta and wartorn Aurorian states into Esthursia."
Harold Osborne: "Thank you, Lord Speaker, on behalf of the Foreign Policy committee; I can indeed confirm that we will remain in solidarity with Sorovia for as long as it takes, that we will maintain the political and economic pressure on Iolanta until it abandons racial segregation and human rights abuses once and for all reliably, and that we have commenced establishing safe refuge routes from the Iolantan border into Esthursia with our peacekeeping presence to conduct the maximal refuge programmes that we can in order to hopefully bring some hope and light to the millions whose lives have been torn up and stamped down on by this undeniable crisis in our Auroria; refuge, preservation of life, and peace remains our primary objective in every place concerned when it comes to Esthursian foreign policy and exercise of power. We once again urge the Iolantan government to unilaterally end the conflict as it unilaterally started it here and now; by ending the cynical and abhorrent programme of human expulsion, forcing statelessness on hundreds of thousands of innocent residents based on a grievance by a cynical, undemocratic regime that we will continue to sanction for its abuse of life, and that any deal must accept full Iolantan responsibility for this crisis and not solely accommodate political bargaining, for that merely justifies the abuse of human rights in Iolanta. Our Government has been robust in challenging wrongful actions, and it remains a key reason for our departure from the dysfunctional Union of Aurorian States, who have proven ineffectual on foreign policy and admission; we triggered departure on Sunday [the 1st], and full transition will end on the first of November."
Rosemary Manning (Moderate): "Thank you, Lord Speaker; I will also once again join with the Forethane's respectable urgency and forcefulness in demanding the Iolantan government step back from its own manufactured crisis and that economic and political consequences remain in place until it does so. I, Lord Speaker, welcome the establishment of safe routes into Esthursia, and reiterate that both parties will continue to espouse Esthursia as the welcoming home to all those fleeing injustice wherever it is conducted. My question however, Lord Speaker, trails back to our original line of questioning - will this Government ignore the voices, who seem numerous and increasingly vocal, that so-called victimless crimes are not crimes at all?"
Harold Osborne (SocDem):"I am not here to comment on individual views, Lord Speaker, on behalf of the Leader of the Opposition. If the member opposite would like to consult with those unnamed representatives who hold whichever views she finds disengaging, I encourage her to do so, but I will not drag this House into debate and dispute over individual theoretical questions that are hypothetical and vague, thus immaterial on government policy in reality. This Government will continue its balancing between responsibility and rehabilitation, will continue to open safe use centres, and continue to calibrate criminal justice for encouraging the core criminal law principle of minimal criminalisation in order not to disproportionately come down onto actions deemed irresponsible or wrong by society; I hope this answers the question asked, Lord Speaker."
Rosemary Manning (Moderate): "It's interesting that the Forethane implicates the welfare state; which has ballooned in size since the Social Democrats entered office, and now stands at over half of annual economic output. As a result, our economy is like a runaway freight train - inflation is up, unemployment is up, and opportunity is running thin in this Workers' Republic of Esthursia being drafted up by the Forethane, Lord Speaker. Will the Forethane claw back control, Lord Speaker, or will he accept that we've come off the rails?"
Harold Osborne (SocDem): "It's equally interesting, Lord Speaker, that the so-called Moderate leader is quoting a slogan from this very session from the hard-right neoliberal Esthur People's Party. Two peas in a rotten pod, Lord Speaker. As for the matter of the economy, Esthursia is still on a path of recovery from her party's mismanagement fourteen years ago, and is still making up for the lost ground as a result of the wanton and intentional failures of Conservative governance and austerity. Attacking our welfare state for a moderate increase in inflation is about as economically sound as stating our solution is to print out more money - the sort of economics that landed us in an economic meltdown just off fifteen years ago, and which relegated those opposite to Opposition for a generation, for good reason! This government has not lost control, but regained what control was lost by those opposite, and is bringing prosperity on scales not seen for decades to the people of this country - equality of income, wage growth, human development, democracy, housing, transport, the safety net, education, healthcare, elder care, it's all being consolidated and strengthened purely because we have learnt that listening to the members opposite ramble about cherry-picked numbers for a generation garners nothing except a complete lack of responsibility. We are on track for fair growth, and we aren't letting them push us off, Lord Speaker."
Rosemary Manning (Moderate): "The Forethane talks of cherrypicked numbers, but doesn't state them. I'd like to, Lord Speaker. Inflation; 3.3%, well above the 2% target. Unemployment; 3.9%, up from last year. The deficit is now at 4% of GDP, while house prices have sunk to a new low for this government..."
[audible cheers from the government benches]
Þórólfur Hjaltan: "Order."
Rosemary Manning: "... those are his numbers. The economy can't keep accommodating more and more free services - broadband, water, free tuition..."
[more cheers]
Þórólfur Hjaltan: "ORDER! Any more and I will have to expel members on that side, we all are here to hear the questions given. Leader of the Opposition."
Rosemary Manning: "Do we see the economics of the Government now, Lord Speaker? The economics of blind hope, of Wilsonian pandering, of endless spending, of bottomless pockets; it doesn't work, and the road will run out. Does this Government have any plan for if a recession hits, Lord Speaker, to protect incomes?"
Harold Osborne: "Lord Speaker, it's interesting that wage growth, economic growth, productivity growth were all left out; and as for house prices, I say it's a wonderful thing that more people can now afford their houses, a reversal of the cynical regressive policies of the anti-student, anti-youth party opposite. Gesturing wildly over a normal deficit misses the fact that our economy is growing and requires a rise in spending each year, while borrowing to invest responsibly is a positive factor on our nation's growth - especially as interest rates have gradually crept down in recent years, reducing the cost of borrowing further - while ending such a deficit would drastically hurt economic growth and just bring back Conservative austerity, which may I remind the members opposite caused hundreds of thousands of premature deaths, ruined hundreds of thousands of lives, and contributed heavily to both bringing public services to their knees - hurting health, crime, education, productivity, cutting wages, the signs of a right-wing government in action - and the eventual recession that saw the party opposite finally turfed out of office. We have built more houses than any government in a lifetime, and we've upgraded transport for a new century. As for recession-proofing, we've been busy doing the recession recovery plan since day 1, after they left us a bankrupt cut-back Esthursia. We've brought high-skill, high-quality jobs, and at the same time encouraged people to have better lives and better work-life balances, while also curbing the rise of obesity. An economy who can allow the existence of billionaires who pay virtually no tax essentially wherever they live - except, of course, Esthursia, with the wealth tax that the Moderates opposite are plotting to gut out against the popular will and economic sense - but can't guarantee the provision of education as a human right, instead outsourcing and profiteering on the lives of young adults who often have no income, either burdening them with a lifetime of debt for a service that should be a human right or excluding everyone but the rich from ever going - that's an economy that's broken. A society who can't provide for their poorest and in need without cynically penny-pinching and counting every single coin, without arbitrarily excluding people and making the least able and least fortunate in our society jump through hoops to get the most basic sustenance, is one that is contravening the basic right to dignified life - is a failed society. An economy should enrich its workers, not its bosses; it should reward opportunity and encourage it, not tax students for life! Homelessness is nearly eradicated under this government, those needing social care can receive it without losing their homes. It shouldn't be outlandish, those are basic principles! Esthursia is a beacon of fairness, growth, opportunity, freedom and wellbeing, and there's nothing the members opposite can do about it!"
Rosemary Manning: "If Esthursia is a beacon of freedom, why did the High Court have to scrap one of the Government's laws for contravening religious freedoms? I'd like to quote the High Deemery's comments; your law seemed like a parody or something from political satire, your law was far beyond the bounds of common sense, your law was what the constitution was explicitly designed to prevent infringements as overt as these, whether intentional or misguided, and it was voted down by all seven participating Dooms. Your Government has undermined Esthursia's image on a global scale, and for what? Will you apologise, Forethane?"
Harold Osborne: "I welcome the High Deemery's robust judgement, I maintain that Esthursia's strong judiciary is here precisely for the purpose of challenging our excesses, and I apologise on behalf of this government for overstepping the bounds of rights, however I will not apologise for aiming to safeguard the separation of state and church, as in our restriction on religious schools passed by our Objective Education Act, which has been given a green pass by the High Deemery. This government is one that accepts its mistakes, but it is also one that builds from them, Lord Speaker."

Former UAS president Valter Belgræv enters "Independent ticket" with Hrefna Blöndal, with Liberal and Green-Left backing

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"The new position necessitates a new approach, and I believe this is what we are bringing to the people of this nation," stated Blöndal

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The President of the UAS is well-known to many, and Hrefna Blöndal as the Green-Left leader for Helmark until 2020 up north, and the two have seized upon the relative lack of notoriety amongst the major parties' candidates - the most notable one of whom is a former Conservative party leader, Stephen Alborough, well-remembered for his HeadStone gaffe and unexpected landslide defeat to incumbent Harold Osborne of the Social Democrats - to attempt to wrestle control of the position's momentum from the two main parties.

More than that, the two have called for a "new approach" repeatedly, in many ways. Valter Belgræv's social liberalism and staunch globalism has been known for some years, however he became the "first Auroskeptic Aurorian President" after he spoke out against UAS membership shortly before resigning as President days before Esthursia triggered Article 11, while his post-presidential career has mainly been in aiding John Largan as International Development minister and criticising the government for "not going far enough" against "Iolanta sympathising countries." His campaign has struck on a similar tone to his departure as UAS President, hinging on people backing his potentially incendiary remarks against "enabling" or "inept" countries and their diplomacy.
Hrefna Blöndal is an unlikely ally for the aggrieved President, as a globalist and left-wing environmentalist, who has long advocated for Esthursia to move to a federal system. Blöndal supported a HNU proposal for a referendum on the federalisation of Esthursia, but was beaten back by the Osynstric legislature, a move she personally called "disgracefully anti-democratic" in 2019; she has since stated that she "would bring the issue to national conscience in all corners of the nation", and that the Forethane was "secretly quite open to the idea".

Blöndal as a Premier stated she would be "easy-going, calm and hands-off", stating that a head of state "should follow, not lead, her people" - a direct reference to King Arthur's speech - while no head of state should "intervene with the legislative process [in granting assent] unless so explicitly and objectively necessary that not doing so would be an affront to her people". Blöndal and Belgræv's campaign also stated that "two minds are greater than one", and that the ability to have one another to check their power "would be an advantage enjoyed solely by the Esthursian heads of state should [they] be given the chance to enable it into convention." The two also told the ENBC that they would "serve as a fresh choice compared to the stale politics of the divided left and divided right, whose meanderings and fractures are about to be shown for all to see, compared to our uniting of liberalism and socialism, west and east, mainland and Cordane, man and woman, anti-UAS and pro-UAS, is here to unite, not splinter. We will govern on fact and convincingly with conviction, not on division, posture and dogma."

Their joint candidacy earnt the endorsement of the Liberals and Green-Left - with Blöndal getting that of Green-Left and the former UAS President receiving Liberal approval, but both backed the joint ticket as "foundational and fundamental to boosting our democracy" - and the ire of the Social Democrats and Moderates. A Social Democratic spokesman contacted the ENBC to comment on the matter.
The breakthrough proposal, however, is currently leading polls with 33% saying they would back a joint ticket, ahead of 30% voting Social Democrat and 20% voting Moderate. What remains to be seen is whether the two can keep up - or even boost - momentum into the December campaign, or whether public voters will return to legislative ways and vote a major party's candidate; but with the candidates in the parties yet to campaign, their messages and divisions may be exposed, further strengthening the joint bid.

Centrist defections sparked after Rosemary Manning criticises Government "open arms, open borders" policy

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"It cannot be that we take in over a million new people every year, we simply cannot accommodate that," Manning told the party in Boston

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- Winifred Barton-John; Romsdæg, 14 Aldævn, 2978 (Tuesday, 17 October, 2023)

The Moderates' autumn conference in Boston in the industrial north-west has quickly become a sounding board of centre-right policy, as the party begins to feel for its voter base - who are more or less the same folks who voted Conservative, to the ire of the Liberal Moderate Committee (LMC). Rosemary Manning's tentative antipathy to the Government's "open arms, open borders" initiative follows Graham Ingley's parody of the initiative as "open wallet politics", and marks one of the possible points of contention should the Moderates and Social Democrats go to an election in 2026, or before, depending on Osborne's preference and longevity.

Esthursia has taken in approximately one-million people in the year up to April 2023 - thanks to a mixture of its increasingly interventionist foreign policy, focus on multiple "safe refuge lines" and opening up of customs and visa policies with numerous nations as well as student and worker visa numbers steadily rising - per government estimates, and is estimated to do so again by April 2024, before subsiding back into the low 100,000s depending on the recovery of the Aurorea, Imperium's civil war, continuation of rising student and public sector worker visa numbers, and the Iolantan crisis being resolved. Likewise, emigration typically rises two to three years after spikes of immigration, pulling down the net immigration figure further; but even withstanding these asterisks, Esthursia is undergoing a rapid period of immigration, and some communities are suddenly a lot more diverse than they once were. The issue is becoming increasingly notable, with immigration and foreign policy climbing the ranks of the policy agenda, as well as concerns over council budgets, housing and public service provision especially amongst the right, best seen as its inclusion in the far-right Weskerby riots on the 4th of October.

Rosemary Manning, who began the Moderates as a "civic conservative" approach to the centre-right, has been seen as increasingly similar to the old-guard centre-right compared to her party's liberal tendency, especially amongst some new members and representatives in the Liberal Moderate Committee (LMC); culminating in the Boston speech, which included a short but very noteworthy excerpt on new Moderate opposition to the Government's self-proclaimed "open arms, open borders" approach to immigration, refugees and visas.

The reason? The Moderates are currently polling fifteen points short of the Social Democrats, amid a positive economic climate for most and a revival of Osborne's foreign policy popularity, and aimed for a policy to return some of the EPP to the Moderates' voter base. This seemed to have been mostly justified by the response - a majority of Moderate voters polled approved, as did those in the EPP. Thus, the speech last week made sense to the party at large, and to its voters.

The result? Despite popular approval among Moderate and EPP voters of the policy, one Moderate thane has crossed to the Liberals, one has resigned from the party and become Independent - the first independent thane since 2017 when centrist Social Democrat Carl Landsby left the party over the Wilson affair - while a smattering of mostly former Liberal-members have quit the party, with some returning to their Liberal party, following a long series of discontent sparked by the Auroskeptic stance of the Manning-led Moderates in the UAS referendum and consolidated by the divisions ripped open by the Premier contest between a liberal and a conservative. The orchestrated withdrawal all happened on the same day, except the independent departure the night before, "to maximise the effect of its damage", said liberal ringleader Edelard Holt, who is now a Liberal thane.


George Balder (left) giving a statement in Charenbost this morning over the Manning resignations
Liberal party leader George Balder - whose impromptu speech outside in Charenbost, far-north Osynstry, signalled how unexpected the defections were to the party - said that the nine ministers and one thane, adding "possibly two in time", had "showed up" the Moderates under Rosemary Manning.
The Moderates' electoral fumbling is unlikely to help the right hang on in the Midlands, where a by-election would give the Social Democrats forty out of eighty seats in the Thanage, or an absolute majority. Social Democrats have gradually crept up in size in the Thanage and Ministry - winning by-elections for the major parties is easier due to the winner-takes-all element of them, granting Osborne victories against Manning in the South-East, the sole Cumbric nationalist seat in south Helmark - leading to the Independence caucus in the Thanage renaming itself back to the Helmark National Union, its now sole participant - and then replacing a Green-Left departure in August, while holding onto two of its own departures in Hereshire and the North-West.

Harold Osborne, who effectively has done nothing but watched the centre-to-right coalition divisions once again sabotage conservatism ahead of a key by-election, has stated that the "entire experience is a very telling whirlwind of Conservative division, rhetoric and failure." Speaking in Esthampton, Osborne told the ENBC:
Analysis

Public opinion is relatively divided - particularly along party lines - on the matter of the "open arms, open borders", and surprisingly the Social Democrat voter is typically not as enthusiastic about the policy as their Green-Left or Liberal counterpart. Moderates are - just about - majorly opposed to the policy, however are potentially the most divided party on the matter also; giving a good hint as to why Manning's clear opposition to the approach proved the straw that broke the camel's back over discontent on Manning's Auroskepticism and Conservative-alignment for an increasing number of liberal and centrist Moderates.

Rosemary Manning has probably not shifted much in the eyes of the voters that matter - even though the figures of those who approve her / disapprove her more now tilt against her (29-38, or 9% more moving to disapproving) - the bulk of this difference lies in left-wing voters who would never vote her anyway. A very large portion of those Social Democrats' 43% stating they now view more poorly of Manning will be in the "never blue" camp of voters, whose opinions essentially don't matter to Moderate HQ; however the Moderates have at best slightly edged a slight nudge to approving, and even then, the strength of anger amongst about one-in-four Moderate voters is very well-represented in centrist circles in parliament as a signal that the trade-off may not have been worth it. Likewise, not many have significantly changed their opinion - just 28% say they have shifted a lot - which may provide some solace to Rosemary Manning, as might the headline figure that Moderate (just!) and EPP voters back the move. Additionally, the return of instability to the forefront - which had subsided somewhat after the UAS departure "proved her right", in the eyes of many voters who'd opposed the departure and backed Osborne's promise of reform - will harm Manning's image in the long-run, even amongst those voters backing her immigration policy.

One curveball, in spite of this, that might matter for Rosemary Manning in the long-run is that the Moderates were actually ahead in the race for the Weskerby mayoralty, with many liberally-minded centrists cleaving off from the Social Democrats amid anger at the Constabulary and attention paid to other major cities over Weskerby by the Government, and that a landmark victory to elect the capital's Mayor would very much rely on that very same group who are expressing severe anger at her in recent days and weeks, to the point that many may not turn out or actually vote Liberal/Social Democrat instead. There's a possibility that the April 2024 Weskerby election has been shaped by the events of the last week, really, and the Social Democrats in the capital are probably feeling a lot more optimistic than they were at the start of the month - scraping into another term by the skin of their teeth is a whole lot better than being defeated. Drawing attention to Osborne's foreign policy - which has become popular in recent months, over the Iolantan border crisis and reconstruction in the Aurorea as well as the Imperium refuge zone - may also prove a poor decision for the Moderates. The EPP also are split on how much they're actually bothered about this shift (with a majority signalling they're not that bothered either way), blunting the effect of it further. Similarly, the Midlands by-election rests on the Moderates' chance of winning over the centrist voter, which may have equally been jeopardised by this, though the Social Democrats were already leading thanks to cities such as Wencaster and Asgarslow being overwhelmingly left-wing in recent years.

The conclusion is; the electoral benefits for Manning of this anti-immigration policy may turn out to be handing both a Thanage majority and another term for Alderman Andrea Redgard to the Social Democrats, even if the EPP may lose a few voters to her party, and she may have irreparably damaged the formative coalition between the traditional conservative voter and the aspirational liberal-moderate voter she was aiming to win over, the consequences of which we don't know yet - but Forethane Harold Osborne can only be rubbing his hands together, whatever the consequence, and the "open arms, open borders" policy certainly isn't under any threat for the time being.

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In other news:
- Cordane FM Vander criticises Government's "opportunism" but welcomes finalisation of GSI12 high-speed rail link funding
- Ingang programme to cost ʃ13bn this year, to be taken as part of foreign aid budget
- Somberbridge Council falls into no overall control after defections from Moderates
- Premier race: Belgræv-Blöndal pact leads by 10 points over Social Democrats' Welburn
- Esthursia reports growth of 1,300,000 to population in year up to Newyear 2023
- Religious schools ban and private school tax hike passes into law
- Brantley sees this winter's first snowfall amid cold front from the far-north-west
- Alderman of Weskerby, Andrea Redgard: "Manning has proven to Weskerby that her party is still Einarsson's venomous party thirteen years on"
- Renewal Front suspended from Houses of Berworth for three months, narrowly avoiding ban

Corporation tax cut to 15% after destination-based cash flow tax (DBCFT) instituted, ahead of full transition in 2025

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"There is now a tax incentive to produce to sell, to base yourself, in Esthursia without the race to the bottom; this is a tax cut for producers" - Chancellor Burnside

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Chancellor Edelard Burnside (left) speaks on his introduction of the new cash flow tax at a Collective Interest conference

Esthursia is on the route to switching to a destination-based cash flow tax, replacing the corporation tax completely by 2025, after Harold Osborne's new Chancellor criticised the "lack of present international co-operation on tax evasion beyond bilateral implementation of existing flawed taxes." Speaking to a Collective Interest (CI) conference in Hereporth, Edelard Burnside stated that the "incentives were numerous and irreconcilable with the current and extremely flawed global system of corporation tax":

What is a destination-based cash flow tax?

With Esthursia being the first nation in the world to transition to a destination-based cash flow tax, it can be unsurprising that many just don't know what it is - it's reported that in government, nobody knew what Burnside was "on about", according to one Social Democrat source, but most warmed to it following his presentation of the proposal.

A destination-based cash flow tax, or DBCFT, is a tax levied on sales conducted based on the location of the purchaser - for instance, a sale of Exampleland's cars into Esthursia would incur a cost on behalf of Exampleland's car company, while a sale of Esthursia's cars out to Exampleland would not. There are three main aims of this according to the Chancellor:
The main goal of the DBCFT, according to Collective Interest, is to implement a "fair taxation system which also enjoys advantages over a world engaging in a race to the bottom". Corporations selling to Esthursian consumers or producers alike will face disincentives as a result of taxed imports, while moving production into Esthursia or merely investing Esthursian production - such as changing from exporting to Esthursian producers to using said money to invest in Esthursian producers - would incur far less taxation, while the change from profit to sales also means that investment itself incurs no return tax. Furthermore, the increased tax revenue from multinationals is to be spent "socially", on infrastructure, welfare - including health - and domestic production, as well as Cordane's new high-speed railway.

The first source of the DBCFT in Esthursian thinking dates to 2017, when the Lorestead of Thornlow's economics department studied it to great depth, publishing a 102-page draft on its drawbacks, advantages and mechanisms. Burnside, who went to Thornlow to teach and research economics in the 2010s (but did not go to university there, instead coming from Esthampton), was a part of said study.

With the corporation tax's tax gap estimated at 30.7 billion IBU for the year 2022-3, even getting a large portion of this would easily fund the estimated cost of the Cordane high-speed rail (4bn), as well as Compass (11bn), and potentially even the Ingang programme (13bn), while tax receipts are rising year-on-year due to the wealth tax, rising economic growth, the auditor, and redistributive other tax changes.

There are flaws - particularly for net exporters, which Esthursia is not at present (but, as Edelard Burnside stated, may be in the future) - in reduced tax bases and the associated problems with effectively not taxing or taxing very low levels on exporters and investment (though in practice, this is likely to be more subdued or conditional, e.g. investment leading to increased sales would find itself taxed a little more in the long-term), however the Government's decision to wholesale transition and scrap the existing corporation tax of 30% within 2 fiscal years further suggests that it believes the advantages heavily outweigh the disadvantages.

What do the parties think of the decision?

Opposition, predictably, has come from the typically pro-market neoliberal Esthur People's Party. EPP spokesman Ingver Ólavsson told the ENBC that the tax was unsustainable and potentially problematic:
Ironically, Graham Ingley himself has not spoken out on the issue, despite normally being the primary economic spokesperson on the matter.

Rosemary Manning's Moderates, however, have been the key opposition to the decision, calling it "one step off a cliff economics":
Support for the decision has come from the left, but also the centre. George Balder did not explicitly say whether the Liberals backed it, but stated that it seemed "reasonable and potentially groundbreaking, based on real thinking by the Chancellor", while the HNU signalled it would vote alongside the law, and the Forethane called his Chancellor's decision "the cornerstone of Fourth Way economics in action, incentivising production, investment, innovation and also wage growth, public spending, higher revenue and exports, all while simplifying the tax system and ensuring fairness, solidarity and incentives for improved living standards." Green-Left's leader is the Chancellor, so their stance on the matter is without need of statement.

Conclusion

Esthursia looks to be the first - and possibly only - nation to switch off from conventional corporation tax, however whether the experiment works for the country, or whether its benefits - which are undeniably numerous - manifest in reality, are as of yet unclear.

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B2B zero-rating - exempting producers who export to Esthursia in order to import from Esthursia from tax

Midlands by-election: Moderates down 10 points from 2022 as Osborne eyes overall majority

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The Midlands, a typically right-leaning region where the Moderates won by eleven points now leave them trailing by five

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Frankie Vaizey (M, left) faces an uphill struggle to hang onto the Midlands seat and deny Osborne his 100th seat by defeating Isolda Marlow (SD, right)

The Midlands are no typical bellwether; the region has always been "true blue", although recent years and the Social Democrats' relative dominance nationally has put the Moderates' majority on thinner ice than it once was, but even with Social Democrats' gains in September last year, they were eleven points clear of Moderates for the regional vote.

Now, as the whole region votes for the replacement to the late Eldreþæn* Wilma Bury who died in office two months ago aged 83 following 45 years in public service, things have changed. The Social Democrats' image has improved on foreign policy in recent months, while in particular its share of working class votes has slowed compared to middle class votes over approval of its strongly pro-immigration stance, a factor that has particularly affected the Midlands. Furthermore, prosperity brought to the Midlands since the 2010 financial crisis is now more likely to be accredited to the 2011-2023 Social Democratic governments than the 2002-2011 Conservative Union's, even amongst Moderate voters, as opinion improves on their economic record even despite ongoing tensions over trade unionism on the left.

All the while, the key issue raised on the doorsteps of Asgarshire and Wencastershire alike is the same; division in the right, whatever name it or names they go by, has alienated many from turning out. Rosemary Manning's image rests on her ability to govern the centre and right concurrently, and this by-election couldn't have come at a worse time for her on that, with the recent splinter over anti-immigration stances in the Moderate party, all the while failing to deal with it harshly enough in the eyes of the right to stem the loss to the more hardline EPP.

As a result of all this, the Moderates have found themselves five points down according to polling by EsthursiaElects in a former true blue area, haemorrhaging support to three of the four other major parties - with some Green-Left votes down as voters seek to tactically back the Social Democrats for the rare majoritarian election. The Moderates got 37% of the vote in the Midlands this time last year - not great, but still safely above the 26% from the Social Democrats and well above the 16% of the Liberals. While the third parties haven't moved much - Liberals (20%) and the EPP (14%) are each four points up on their general election standing, but have little material chance of winning outright, while Green-Left (6%) has lost four - the two major parties are on course to see a swing of eight overall to the Social Democrats, with the latter up six points and the Moderates down ten.

Who's standing?
The Moderates have put forward a retired civil servant and pharmaceutical company lobbyist, Frankie Vaizey, to the position of candidate - the latter proving to become an attack point from the Government party, but Vaizey insists that his role is non-profit and impartial - who served as a Conservative councillor in rural Langsteadshire (in the South Midlands) between 2003 and 2010. Vaizey is a strong advocate of freemarket economics, stating that the self-supply model of the UHCS "denies opportunities to pharmaceutical enterprise", while he also opposes the reforms to corporation tax and ran on a mandate of "cut tax and strap back spending". Vaizey, however, is socially relatively liberal, backing self-ID and condemning "EPP bigotry" on Twitcher over their comments towards transgender people.

Vaizey is seen as an appointment to appease the right in the region while also not irating the centre over social attitudes; he himself has relatively positive responses from the communities in the Midlands, however suffers from being relatively unknown and "unmemorable", according to EsthursiaElects, who found that 71% of Midlands residents could not identify Vaizey or were unsure, on a board of the candidates despite weeks of fierce campaigning.

The Social Democrats have put forward Isolda Marlow. She worked as the chief advisor to the President of the UAS between July and September 2023, but was also known for being an active member of the Social Democratic society at the Lorestead of Wencaster. Marlow's key distinct policies include greater funding for solar farms, opposition to new towns in favour of expanding existing ones, higher subsidies for the Esthursian agricultural industry, open borders for refugees and staunch Auroskepticism in the wake of the crisis in Auroria. At the age of 32, she would be the youngest thane from the Midlands since 2002 if elected.

Marlow is likewise seen as a candidate tailored to the region - growing up in a rural middle-class community, and staunchly anti-New Left*, while also both socially progressive and Auroskeptic - while her independent thinking and time serving with UAS President and current Premier-candidate Valter Belgræv has made her politics more known before she stood for the seat. As a member of Fourth Way, she is a part of Osborne's faction, but is more willing to work with the Redbridge moderate faction than the hard left.

Also standing is the Liberal Edith Greening, who is on the centreleft of the party and a strong advocate in social mobility and agriculture spending; Greening has appealed to "soft blue voters" to endorse the Liberals as a protest vote. The EPP have stood Nick Sommers, a former Conservative Minister who, if he won, would be the second-oldest thane at age 75. Sommers voted against UAS membership in 2022, and against self-ID in the 2010s, as well as opposing same-sex marriage and abortion - even for the EPP, Sommers is regarded as an old guard hardline conservative. Sommers attracted controversy during the campaign by criticising "urban Weskerby suited-and-booted types for flinging down the drawbridge and letting the invaders in", with Ingley criticising his comments as "insensitive" and Isolda Marlow decrying his "typical outdated xenophobia". Green-Left's candidate, Atlin Brine, has been possibly the most active personal campaigner, however the party's fortunes seem to be less than responsive with his predicted vote share barely scraping above deposit-returning 4%.

Major issues in the campaign have included the government's record, Moderate division, the UHCS - and Vaizey's perceived biases - as well as council funding, migration and foreign policy. Vaizey has called for "any voter against a majority government-by-trade-union to lend [him] a vote", while Marlow has attacked Vaizey's "first job getting in the way of his second political job" and possible corruption allegations on the matter.

Why does it matter?

This session has been quite a full one for by-elections - the Moderates' incumbency rate was very high for the last two elections, possibly as a way of preserving notariety amongst voters as the mainstream centreright party, and thus more retiring Thanes have left or unfortunately passed away than usual, while some moderates in the Social Democrats have left - and the composition of the Thanage has changed quite gradually in the Forethane's favour. This time last year, his party held 96 of 200 seats in the upper house after securing a small working majority of 19 in the Ministry (235 seats of 451) - now, with his party increasing its share to 99 and a majority of 27 (239/451), it sees an opportunity to secure an absolute majority in the upper house, with a potential gain on Thursday in Isolda Marlow's name putting Osborne's party up to 100 - a working majority of 2 with the Renewal Front suspended.

This would give Harold Osborne a majority - he hasn't had one since before the April 2022 election, and governing with one may end his coalition with Green-Left. Social Democrat briefers have suggested that Green-Left Chancellor Edelard Burnside may be retained but Green-Left move to supply and confidence if Marlow wins in the Midlands, which in turn would make Jeremy Wilson the Aftreþæn (Deputy PM-equivalent), while Green-Left has pressed for an independent mandate increasingly.

A majority would also heavily disspirit the right - the Moderates would have now lost another by-election, added to two defections, while Harold Osborne's hints at a resignation ahead of 2026 in the midst of parliamentary deadlock appear to have been proven unfounded - while losing in their heartland to the left may be a damaging look and even a catalyst to further infighting. All we have to do is look back to 2018, and the atmosphere that took down Stephen Alborough in the midst of a damaging loss, to remember this type of catalyst.

Effectively; should Marlow win in the Midlands, the Social Democrats may be here to stay for a lot longer, and in larger numbers. If the Moderates want to confine Harold Osborne to coalition politics and minority government, they've got an uphill struggle to make it happen.

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Eldreþæn - literally "eldest/most senior Thane", the longest serving member(s) of the House of Thanes. Wilma Bury (Moderate) was first elected in 1978, making her one of the oldest serving thanes.
New Left - a campaign group started in 2021 in the Social Democrats by Jeremy Wilson and other hard-left socialists to advocate for socialist policies, though the group has also been seen as congregating around Wilson's post as Deputy Leader and Wilsonian policies more widely, such as globalism, democratic socialism, populism and republicanism. Isolda Marlow criticised New Left for "shielding" Wilson and "holding back Harold Osborne without a mandate" in January of this year as well as criticising Wilson directly during the Prydania affair.

Midlands by-election: Social Democrats win to gain Thanage majority, as EPP unexpectedly beat Moderates into second

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Combined Moderate and EPP votes above Social Democrats', prompting calls from right to reform by-elections

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Isolda Marlow (left) has secured her place as a Midlands þaen, but calls from the right have resulted from the Social Democrats she stood from winning with "only 34% of the vote"

The Social Democrats today will be celebrating after their victory; this election being the first time the Social Democrats have polled at the top of the Midlands' list since January 2011 (and second time ever). However, despite strong growth from the left - and celebrations over Harold Osborne re-securing his legislative majority in the upper house as Marlow becomes his 100th Social Democratic þæn - the most unexpected twist has proven pervasive on media headlines; the EPP outperformed the Moderates, and secured 23% of the vote, ahead of the Moderates' 21% (but well behind Isolda Marlow's 34%). The question to ask - how?

Evaluation

The only party truly happy here are the Social Democrats - although Green-Left, who managed to retain their deposit against initial fears, mustn't be too disheartened - who outperformed expectations slightly, securing an 11 point victory and 34.5% of the vote, with over one-million voters backing Isolda Marlow for the House of Thanes seat. Harold Osborne for one, was certainly overjoyed to receive the news. Marlow outperformed Vaizey on approvals - despite both having net negative scores by the end of the contest, Marlow's was marginal and contingent on including hard-right voters while Vaizey was split even amongst Moderates - and is touted by the left as a key determinant of the Social Democratic victory.


The Moderates, by contrast, have responded by blaming it on approving a too socially liberal candidate for the region, and not pushing hard enough on the "sensible immigration" line. Manning agreed with IBC journalist Elton Baldwin when asked whether EPP votes were won from her party by "failing to prove conservative credentials", while the Shadow Chancellor instead blamed "populism and a divisive candidate" - Vaizey, the Moderate candidate who placed third, was accused of bias to private health by most parties and his image was further damaged by accusations of malpractice over his attempt to seek work in the UHCS. Graham Ingley, on the other hand, told ENBC reporters that the Midlands "wanted a right-wing option and confusion on this aided an illegitimate leftwing victory", accusing the Social Democrats of refusing to reform by-elections - which still work on a First Past the Post (FPTP) basis - due to the advantage it gives them electorally. Both the Moderates and the EPP stated that the other party should have stood aside to allow an "opposition rightwing candidate" to win, with the EPP citing its unusually strong performance as justification for this assertion. Furthermore, post-UAS and anti-immigration sentiment was likely fuelling the EPP vote, stated Daily Herald political editor Edmund Alburgh, as the issues rise on the agenda for the right.

Vote spoiling undeniably had a major effect on the result here - 44% of voters backed one of the second two rightwing parties, compared to 34% for Marlow - however to say that a joint Moderate-EPP candidate would have won all or most of these votes (instead of, potentially, lowering turnout for this candidate, alienating one or both parties' voters and increasing Liberal/far-right votes) is highly speculative.

Liberals weren't spared either, majorly undershooting their predicted performance of major gains and actually losing close to half of their 2022 vote share. George Balder refused to say that the verdict was "explicitly negative" and put the unexpectedly low vote share down to a "progressive tactical vote for Isolda Marlow", even postulating that it would have been Liberal voters backing Marlow that swung the election had the EPP and Moderates not been so evenly split. Even so, the Independent thane who left the Moderates has refused to join the Liberal caucus and has begun to realign with Manning, according to internal sources.

Renewal Front, who had hoped for a major first electoral performance, fell behind not only all of the major parties, but also behind their so-called predecessor on the far right, the National Democrats. Nick Nottingley, the National Democrats' leader, called the Renewal Front "a hilarious failure and caricature of itself" after the results came out, but the far right in general likely backed the EPP, sparing individual parties on the hardline fringes as little as 1.5% of the total vote in a by-election, which usually lead to higher radical votes (as seen in moderate increases to the far left vote.)

Conclusion

With the Midlands voting decisively against the Moderates far more convincingly as for the Social Democrats, the semantics will likely matter little to either Isolda Marlow - who is tipped for a position as V4 Ambassador - nor Harold Osborne, who gains a majority off of the back of a major victory in an old rightwing heartland. The polling discrepancy between the Social Democrats and Moderates is only likely to widen further, as the EPP solidifies itself as a major player in Esthursian politics with its unexpected performance - and equally its new push for electoral reform, which it must be noted is not substantiated by many academics. Populism on the right has also thrown a curveball at most of the parties, and given the right-of-centre Moderates a bloody nose and a big loss to reflect upon - coming third in a major heartland is a very poor footing, even if we're only a year into the term.

Furthermore, the rise of the right in Esthursia over the centre may become a more major phenomenon - if the Moderates lose in places like the Midlands, and with issues such as immigration, government spending, LGBTQ+ rights, free/hate speech and foreign policy concerning V4 and TACU among other global partners all rising through the agenda, the Moderates equally may be only losing in the Midlands due to a more populist and insular outlook by the regional electorate of the Midlands that isn't reflective of the general population - after all, the Midlands did vote for UAS departure, unlike the country. Equally, it isn't right to assume massive predictions and conclusions off of singular by-elections, even if in Esthursia entire regions are involved, and the Moderates have not fallen into much infighting as a result of this likely.

The main next steps for both parties are the internal reactions - the Coalition government may be dissolved, with speculation of the farleft New Left faction's members being demoted, Green-Left leader Edelard Burnside remaining Chancellor, but Jeremy Wilson to become the Afterthane again and the rest of the Redery to fall back into Social Democratic control, under a potential route for Harold Osborne to consolidate power but maintain his friendly relations with the Chancellor. Jeremy Wilson returning into a major government position as the nominal second-in-command may prove thorny, as might tipped demotions - including Konráð Þaðan, the current Reeve for Care - whose positions are threatened by upcoming Osborne-aligned Fourth Way members and non-aligned party loyalists such as Hálvdan Højgaard.

The future path for a strengthened Osborne government and a weakened, splintered opposition - and whether those remain constants or merely fleeting and thus fade - is looking increasingly centred on party lines again, and the Moderates have a lot of soul searching if they want to stem the theoretical haemorrhaging left and right alike.

Results in full

- MARLOW, Isolda (SocDem) - 1,064,504 (34.47%, GAIN from Mod, +8.53) -
SOMMERS, Nickolas (EPP) - 707,816 (22.92%, +12.79)
VAIZEY, Frankie (Mod) - 638,641 (20.68%, -16.65)
GREENING, Edith (Lib) - 338,467 (10.96%, -4.8)
BRINE, Atlin (G-L) - 205,366 (6.65%, -3.16)
(4% - Deposit returned above this level)
FREDERICKSON, Aldrick (SocFront) - 36,441 (1.18%, +0.34)
GOLDING, Merrick (NatDem) - 32,735 (1.06%, +0.91)
DARCY, Ethel (Athers) - 28,103 (0.91%, NEW)
FARLAND, Sommer (3Way) - 20,382 (0.66%, NEW)
CARLSON, Frederick (RF) - 15,132 (0.49%, NEW)
LEADBY, Dalton (MIP) - 618 (0.02%, -0.02)
TURNOUT - 3,088,204, 51.8%

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Glossary

þaen - a member of Esthursia's higher legislative body, the House of Thanes
FPTP - an electoral system whereby the winner, regardless of any second places or the size of their mandate in vote share, wins the election on round one. This system is still used for the House of Ministers and used to be for the House of Thanes
Reeve - the Esthursian equivalent of a cabinet minister (hence Redery being the equivalent for Cabinet)
Forethane, Afterthane - Prime Minister, Deputy PM
Chancellor - chief economic minister of the Esthursian government, who decides in Budgets how the country's taxes and borrowings will be spent and allocated each year
New Left - a faction on the left to farleft, mainly centred around Jeremy Wilson as its leader, which is a successor to the leftwing Progressive Group party before the party merged with the Social Democrats in 2015
UAS - Union of Aurorian States, a group of Aurorian nations formed in January 2022 of which Esthursia is a member, however which has become increasingly controversial. Esthursia is set to finish its transition out on November 1 following a September decision to pull out, and has signed a deal with Aubervijr, with its submission to Scalvia awaiting either's legislative approval.
Third Way, Fourth Way - Third Way economics was adopted by the Social Democrats under Mark Willesden in 1999 to connect centreright market-friendly economic policies with centreleft social policies; Fourth Way economics was a term coined by Harold Osborne and his eponymous faction, which repudiates Third Way socialism and focuses on trade unionism and large government ownership, intervention and spending as well as strengthening socially liberal credentials.
V4 - the Vierëma Group, of whom Esthursia is a member, along with Tardine, Sorovia and Chirral (Hexastalia in Mercanti); the group of close-knit nations, nominally a political and cultural union but increasingly related with the existing and growing trade deals and cooperation between the nations, has gained prominence in recent months over the new scientific Compass programme worth billions of shillings a year, the fall of the UAS in size and power, and its operations in the Imperium, Aurorean reconstruction and the refuge effort on the Sorovo-Iolantan border
TACU - the Trans-Aurorian Customs Union, a customs union and free trade bloc of mainly South Ethian nations; relations between Esthursia and TACU have frostened slightly in recent months over the Iolanta crisis and economic differences
Mod - Moderate, a right-of-centre mixture of liberals and liberal-conservatives who comprise of the official Opposition and are the successor to the more rightwing Conservative Union
Lib - Liberal, a left-of-centre party
G-L - Green-Left, the junior hard-left ecosocialist partner in the Coalition government since September 2022
SocFront - Socialist Front, a farleft communist party
NatDem - National Democrats, a hard-line rightwing populist party which has declined in popularity since the heyday in the 2000s
Athers - Athersian Union, a minor rightwing religious party of Athersists who are socially conservative and economically favour social market economics
3Way - Third Way, as above
RF - Renewal Front, a far right neofascist organisation and political party suspended from the Houses of Berworth for three months due to its relation to the 7/10 (4/10 Gregorian) riots in Weskerby
MIP - Midlands Independence Party, a minor single-issue party in the Midlands who campaign for the region to gain independence.

Esthursia formally leaves the Union of Aurorian States, and renews push for continental sanctions against Iolanta

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"This new era for Auroria can be brought about if we all come together and, after long await, finally stamp out the fire before it burns out of control," says Osborne

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Esthursia officially leaving the UAS on 1 November at midnight, and its new session (Halsen, its month for November) starting the next first weekday on the 3rd with a raft of anti-Iolanta policies and statements, is likely no coincidence; now that Osborne has snuffed out the remaining life of the UAS, his eyes have turned to addressing Iolanta with different partners in the V4 and wider Auroria. With the government - once again - expressing anger and confusion over the lack of geopolitical momentum, this time on sanctions against the Imperium and Iolanta, timing is critical for Osborne.
Osborne has unveiled a total embargo on Iolanta, and accompanied it with a statement to the House of Ministers this morning, after four months of inaction on the matter and occasional warnings to the effect of expansion of the sanctions programme.
Some of the speech was significant - it remains the first time that Osborne has spoken out, albeit not specifically, against nations who "think twice" over sanctions and "don't act", for instance - while the announcement of a total embargo, justified by the explanation that control of money is centralised and thus that it constitutes a "direct attack on the perpetrators [of the regime]".

Furthermore, Esthursia has withdrawn two-thirds of its diplomats from Iolanta, and expelled two-thirds of Iolanta's from internally, stating that diplomatic relations were on "thin ice and stretched sparse" as a "direct result of the decades of active state terror inflicted on millions of lives, and the recent escalation that is both a symptom of this, and a separate atrocity worthy of its own separate condemnation and response therewith."

Esthursia's government was already distrusting of the Iolantans - however this marks a step up from this, and pressure is at a maximum from Weskerby, all while Esthursia's involvement in the crisis increases due to its refuge lines to Cordane and thus the mainland. To put it bluntly - there really isn't much further this can go.

As for the Moderates, Rosemary Manning is entirely behind the policy, offering no glimmer of hope on a Iolantan government perspective for a cool-off should the situation persist with a change in government. The sanctions passed both houses unopposed.

However, the main tactic for this is not, in reality, a statement to say that Esthursia alone will push the Iolantans out of their position - but that such a solution can only be "brought about" if "all come together"; in effect, Esthursia's government is calling upon the international community to also sanction, leaving the terms and imperative vague beyond that the need is urgent, the Iolantan regime. An interesting twist to the speech is that Osborne spoke out against what he called the "false debates" and "imposed dichotomy" between the "urgent" position - in effect, sanctions and punitive action - and the lack thereof, and blamed them implicitly for the continuation of the crisis.

The relatively unsaid today was briefly remarked upon by Osborne;

With the recent withdrawal of Tardine's application to the UAS coinciding with Esthursia's departure, the UAS appears to have finally received its "mercy kill blow", as returning Afterthane Jeremy Wilson satirically quipped on Channel 2 this morning. With the return of Wilson to the forefront of politics, Esthursia's pivoting towards V4, renewal of trade with Aubervijr, and even the rise of populist Auroskeptic (and former UAS President) Belgræv - the latter of whom commented on the matter as the "necessary end to a fundamentally redundant union, comprised of not even words by the end" - all symbolise the nation's increasingly head-first approach to regional geopolitics, and the public's approval therewith. Alfred Frome, the Reeve for the Ellands, reinforced the Forethane's speech, calling Iolanta a "society built on racism and oppression that must be combatted and contained", while new Reeve for Public Safety Hálvdan Højgaard told ENBC News as the government's spokesman:

Even former Forethane Isaac Harding has commented on the matter, stating that the UAS was "a flawed organisation, with its merits, but which ultimately were outweighed by its toxic failures", and that the Vierema Group "is a promising group that actually exhibits the unity that an Aurorian geopolitical force really requires to exert any sense of positive impact on this continent." To conclude; Harold Osborne must be hoping he's right, and he's bet the house on the public backing his more aggressive diplomatic stance, while Iolantan-Esthursian relations are all but over.

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... in other news
Socialist Front-aligned candidate wins support of care workers' trade union members in ballot
EPP call for "review of puberty blockers' morality" for gender-affirming treatment
Government move further towards banning far-right parties in white paper
King and Forethane attend first V4 summit in Korvola
Somberbridge Council: Moderates reach a coalition deal with independents, Liberals and EPP to restore control

Esthursian government pulls out of post-UAS trade deal with Scalvia, condemns Scalvian "indifference" on Iolanta and "bad faith"

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"We could not reasonably continue negotiations when condemning Iolantan segregation was a Scalvian red-line no"

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The accusations levelled against the Scalvian government after the unexpected fall-through of trade deal negotiations are numerous and harsh, to say the least.

With Esthursia and Scalvia appearing relatively close in past decades, the Esthursian nation has to ask; what went so wrong?

Background

The Esthursian nation voted in favour of staying in the Union of Aurorian States in March of this year, however the promise by Osborne to secure his slim win was clear and conditional - reform was necessary. When it didn't arrive, the UAS President Belgræv's noisy resignation brought to a sudden end Esthursian pro-UAS policy. By September, the government had begun the process of pulling out.

When November 1 came, the silence over Esthursia and Scalvia became deafening - what was taking so long? Today, however, the questions were answered; a particularly stripped down "undeal" is to be put through the Houses of Berworth to "unilaterally maintain normality to whatever possible degree", while a scathing response by the Government has resulted.

The breakdown

Alfred Frome, Esthursia's Reeve for the Ellands, unexpectedly appeared on ENBC evening news last night; his statement was, although at times hopeful, injected with a healthy dose of frustration.


This didn't answer the question though - and was highly cryptic. The Forethane, however, appeared this morning on Channel 2 and clarified the situation far more.

A "stripped back deal" remains passing through the legislature - including rights for Scalvians commuting in Esthursia and eased entry and citizenship for refugees and their families from the Aurorean War who moved north - and despite the abrupt breakdown, Esthursia's government has called on that of Scalvia to "work with us towards a more united future."

Rosemary Manning said she "would not comment definitively", but criticised both Scalvia and the Government for "belligerence and inability to work through differences", asserting a Moderate government would have forged a deal and convinced Scalvia to expand its sanctions "beyond its undeniably poor extent" as well as condemn "properly and separately". Manning further asserted that the government's foreign policy was "talk first, think second," and referred to previous instances such as the Prydania affair as "examples of unilateral failures", however added the caveat that "if true, a Scalvian obstruction of condemning Iolanta is downright wrong, and that I will condemn Scalvia's government alongside Osborne for such an unexpected dereliction of duty."

Aftermath

Relations between the two nations are undoubtedly strained as a result of this - the Esthursian government has accused the Scalvians, essentially, of humanitarian blackmail and of unwittingly backing the Iolantans by obstructing opposition, and the right accusing the Government of belligerence and ineptitude while also condemning Scalvia - but whether the two nations' relationship, and the wider Crisis in Auroria, can recover from present fissures is still in question when so many open up every year.

As for Esthursia's future stance; possibly look to Premier candidate and liberal populist final UAS President Valter Belgræv, whose polling lead recently shot up to 25%.

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... in other news
Government follows Ultramont in breaking off ties with Iolanta
Is trade unionism getting too strong?
Belgræv shoots up in polls to 52% amid Scalvo-Esthur breakdown
Helmark to make period products free for all
Cordane: "GSI12 is necessary, but we wanted it a decade ago"

Last surviving Arbjern government minister dies at age of 101

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Wilber Jessops was Arbjern's Reeve for Education, and oversaw the attempted replacement of evolution with creationism in schools

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Jessops (left) defended Arbjern's far-right tenure well into his old age

Background

Olafn Arbjern, who was Forethane between 1955 and 1959, is well-known in Esthursia for being, to date, the last extreme-right head of government. Arbjern's rule as head of government, and as leader of the Nationalist Party - who espoused authoritarian and ethnonationalist views, as well as religious conservative and aristocratic tendencies - his tenure broke nearly thirty years of consecutive Workers' Union left-wing governance.

Arbjern's tenure was marked by scandal, struggle and a steadily increasing wave of civil disobedience; his efforts to centralise power under one man, himself, had the effect of unifying opposition and making pressure groups more resilient and more obstructive, all while the young King Arthur routinely opposed passing laws on the grounds of a lack of constitutional legitimacy - this included laws around forming a "mandatory" state religion with Arthur at the head, making Arbjern the sole commander-in-chief and putting the police under full national control. Furthermore, the Nationalist government of 1955-1959 reversed a significant portion - temporarily, with the Liberal, Workers' Union and Social Democratic governments that followed re-instating essentially all revoked legislation after this period - of the Workers' Union's socially liberalising policy programme, such as the decriminalisation of homosexuality, the reduction of the voting age to eighteen, even attempting to repeal women's suffrage in 1959. The crossover between the Nationalists and the ORF (Osynstric Renewal Front, fascist revolutionaries of the 1920s) was also clear - a large number, possibly up to half, of the Nationalist caucus could be sourced from the ORF membership ranks as per records sourced in a 1999 inquiry, while the Nationalist government by the late 50s increasingly resembled an ultranationalist autocracy.

Jessops was a mid-ranking Reeve who served for the full four years of Arbjern's government, and oversaw the highly controversial policy of instating creationism into state education, as well as clamping down on freedom of expression in the nation's loresteads, divesting from public schools to fund private schools, and commissioning a large number of grammar selective schools, the latter of which still influences the unusually high number of selective schools in modern Esthursia's compulsory education system. ASH - the Atlish Society of Humanism, of which many government ministers and public figures in the past two generations have been members of reportedly - was formed in opposition primarily to Jessops' policy programme, and continues today to exist as a society of nominally "underground" socially liberal and humanist figures "united by their opposition to the abuse of religious values as a political weapon". In his later life, Jessops came to defend the Arbjern government, calling it "the last breath of tradition in Esthursia" in a 1989 interview, and his memoirs referred to the Nationalist government being the "final attempt at denying the socialists full power over the nation's future." Even into his later years and the 21st century, Jessops propagated the revisionist myth that police repression was either fictional or grossly overestimated by left-wing figures.

What people may remember more from the Arbjern era, however, is the degree of brutality that the state was willing to use when it was able to do so - the Atlington massacre refers to the use of an armed police unit to open fire on peaceful protesters without warning in November 1957 (exactly 66 years before today), while similar incidents occurred at Tynwald, Brantley and Esthampton between Autumn 1957 and the end of his tenure in 1959. Police were particularly divided over the government - a retired police officer would eventually shoot dead the Home Minister, Edwin Bard, during the final Nationalist government conference during a speech by Olafn Arbjern.

The Arbjern government came to an end in 1959, when its attempts to circumvent elections failed and intense opposition from trade unions, pro-democracy activists and those on the centre, left and moderate right all culminated in a landslide defeat for the Nationalists, who finished in 5th. The Workers' Union and Liberal governments of the 1960s who followed would codify the Overlaw in 1963, and further separate powers in Esthursian governance, to prevent a repeat of this.

Aftermath

Harold Osborne commented that the "end of a life, even of one so troubling, should only be a time for reflection", and that the significance of Jessops' death "was in the final end to Arbjernism and to Nationalism's legacy, we hope, for Esthursia," while his deputy, the Afterthane Jeremy Wilson, told the ENBC that the "scourge of far-right Nationalism was finally being put to rest, and that justice can only lay in continuing our clean break from the unspeakable wrongs of the Nationalist government as a nation as we have done for the past 64 years." Rosemary Manning commented that the death of the final Arbjern reeve was "solemn yet, in some ways, cathartic", but urged people "not to celebrate a man's death." Isaac Harding, Esthursia's Forethane between 2002 and 2009 from the Conservative Union (now Moderate member) commented that the moment was "significant, historic and sobering" for the nation, and John Largan - Osborne's predecessor from 2011-2015 and his current Reeve for International Development - released a statement on the matter.



Jessops' family told ENBC that they "understood completely why it [Jessops' death] was a moment for national interest and reflection", but urged "that the nation know that the family of Jessops have today lost a family member as well."

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... in other news
Floods hit west Osynstry after Storm Bjorn hits, bringing a month's rain in one night
Preparations begin for Bonfire Night celebrations tomorrow nation-wide
Esthursian government visit Rayvostoka to "cement positive friendship"
Belgræv: "The world is moving in the right direction on Iolanta, but we must keep pushing for more"
King Arthur dispels rumours of ill health with unexpected public appearance in Fjármagn

Osborne visits Rayvostoka in landmark summit

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"Serious progress has been made in Rayvostokan democratisation, and a flourishing partnership is potentially beginning in real time"

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Esthursia's relationship with Rayvostoka has historically been cold. Isaac Harding nicknamed the country "Auroria's only communist dictatorship", and Tharbjorn Einarsson called it a "totalitarian nightmare" in private. However, after a period of steady and relatively rapid reforms, as well as a change in leadership, Rayvostoka has begun presenting itself to the world in a more positive light - and Esthursia's government has seen the opportunity to wedge the door wide open for further progress and talks.

Background

Esthursia's summit this time last year in Tynwald with the Rayvostokans surprised many. The government, however, began to kick off its tempered reduction in sanctions, and "thaw" of relations, in a hope to make known the international community's appreciation for its move towards democratising reforms. The Esthursian government itself was initially split over the matter - moderates in the Social Democrats were hesitant, and political insiders have speculated that Osborne was convinced by his more left-wing Reeve for the Ellands, Alfred Frome, to make the leap and invite over the Rayvostokan government for the mostly symbolic summit.

Since then, a year has gone by, and Auroria remains in crisis. With the Imperium still on its knees in civil war, the Aurorea now split and reeling from decades of oppression and months of brutal fighting along with the damage dealt to South Ethia more widely, and diplomatic tensions at a recent high, added to the forced refugee crisis on the border of Iolanta, it is undeniable that the Crisis in Auroria as the Government frequently refers to it as must be still in continuation. All the while, Rayvostoka has made significant strides in reformations, instituting the framework for its councilist-communist democracy, moving on from decades of brutal top-down authoritarian rule.

The summit

Reeve for the Ellands, Alfred Frome (right), is accredited reputedly with convincing the Forethane to put Esthursia at the forefront of the global thaw towards Rayvostoka

This year's summit was held in Rayvostoka's "Palace of the People", more colloquially known as the Narodny, in its city of Lebedevgrad; Osborne returned yesterday afternoon, after arriving on the morning of the 8th.

The summit's contents were quite clear - the Redery for the Ellands quickly announced an end to all sanctions on the Rayvostokan government, a rapid upscaling of the diplomatic presences from both countries, the formalisation of visas between Rayvostoka and Esthursia particularly in "key sectors", and with the opening of trade last year, tariffs have been brought down dramatically bilaterally on a wide range of goods. The Chancellor also unveiled a plan to begin investments in Rayvostoka, particularly in transferring as much as 1.4 billion shillings (roughly 2.2 billion IBU) in the next fiscal year in the form of development aid and favourable infrastructure loans. Following his departure from Rayvostoka, Frome also held a statement on Rayvostokan-Esthursian co-operation.
The consequences of the summit are far more widespread than their contents; Osborne appeared far more approving and forthright on this visit than he did on the previous one, the contents themselves are far more extensive than prior, and this is the first time that Esthursia has made a statement - not to mention as forthright as this one - asserting Rayvostokan sovereignty. More importantly, Esthursia's government has put itself as a wedge between Rayvostoka and the Imperium's position, on which relative silence was viewed as more pragmatic due to a mixture of Rayvostoka's previously open authoritarian nature and the Imperium's greater ability to project power; the loss of both of these factors, with Rayvostoka moving towards councilist democracy and the Imperium in disarray, can be only but key reasons behind the dramatic shift in Esthursian foreign policy on the matter. John Largan, seen as the most senior moderate in the Redery, has also fully moved in line with the new position - calling the Suavidici claim over Rayvostoka "unquestionably wrong, entirely unrecognised, and fully opposed [by the Government]" - signifying a level of unity on this matter in government between factions initially divided over rapprochement with Rayvostoka.

The Againsthood has been relatively split over the matter. The Moderates openly opposed the plan last year, however this year Rosemary Manning stated that she would "in a more tempered fashion, back the Osborne redery's plans of a detente [with Rayvostoka]", while the Liberals have this year supported the "landmark summit of two international democracies", showing a degree of hope in the democratisation plan that neither showed this time last year. The EPP, however, have wedged themselves against them and attempted to "form a debate" on the matter, with leader Graham Ingley branding the Rayvostokan government "communists first, and autocrats second," going on to state that "no form of communism has been, is, or ever will be, compatible with democracy," further attacking the Osborne government's "complicity in Rayvostoka's exercise, and appeasement to authoritarians."

Aftermath

The question is where do we move from here? The decision entirely rests on the success of the Rayvostokan transition to democracy; Osborne has made clear that "continued progress hinges on the continued progress of its democratisation" - however should that stay on track, which seems increasingly likely, Esthursia may be finding a new partnership in Rayvostoka that a few years ago would be nothing short of unthinkable. If Osborne had one chance in establishing an entirely new and strong relationship between his nation and another, it might just be this one, although hesitance towards a regime who have a reputation of authoritarianism is hardly out of the question just yet.

Thousands protest in city centres against Government's plan to raise pension age to 69

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With life expectancy predicted at 85.3 in 2023, the pension age at 65 is "unsuitable to the modern Esthur's extended life", stated Chancellor Burnside

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It's no secret that Esthurs are living longer, and healthier; and yet the pension age has stayed untouched since being increased (again, to much ire) from 63 to 65 in the 2000s. The Social Democrats may have implicitly hoped that the issue would not have been theirs to handle - but with life expectancy at retirement passing twenty, and healthy life expectancy now significantly exceeding the retirement age, they have viewed that there is no choice left but to get on with it themselves - to predicted anger from pensioners' rights groups.

The EPP, who have often courted the votes of older, more conservative voters, have been amongst some of the most staunch opponents, but so have the Socialist Front, sparking a comment by Graham Ingley noting the "irony of the right and the far-left agreeing on something".

EPP Economic Spokesman Carl Milford (left) has spoken out against the plan, calling it "ageist" and "arbitrary"

The Esthursian Forum for Equity and Progress (EFEP), a left-wing think tank, spoke out in support of the decision, as did the INS and the Moderates (the latter of whom backed the INS statement). EFEP called it a "common-sense adaptation to increases in living standards and life expectancy," and furthermore put EPP opposition "purely down to political opportunism, and nothing beyond that," calling into question whether the EPP would actually repeal such a policy if it ever entered government by referencing Ingley's support of the 2000s pension reforms. The Moderates, however, have stayed relatively quiet on the issue, which may be an effort to maintain the focus of opposition at the Government without being "caught in the crossfire", according to an internal source. I
It's undeniable that people are living longer, however. The average life expectancy was predicted at 85.3, put down mostly to improvements in healthcare, remarkably low air pollution rates, a relatively low obesity rate and a reduction in poverty/inequality-based lost life years, such as from destitution, inequal housing/health provision and homelessness, however this initially positive statistic - one that the Government was keen to put forward as a "paragon of the Fourth Way model" and "the Esthursian way of life being quite literally longer and healthier" - raised the question of dependency; although offset somewhat by the similar disparity in healthy life expectancy, life expectancy has risen by over five years since 2010, and yet Esthursia's retirement age is at highest a fairly average rate for a developed country. Even after the decision, the retirement question will hardly go away - after all, the age will have only risen by 4 years in a period where lifespans rose by 5 already (not even counting future increases), and even though immigration, increasing productivity and consumption, and improved health will go a long way to proving medium-term solutions to the issue, the question posed to the Esthursian parties is always thus; how high is too high, and more importantly, how long are you willing to wait inbetween raises? Too long of a wait, and potentially Esthursia's working age population will shrink to crisis point - so this decision may in fact, despite the immense public backlash, be viewed as too little, too late by some economists.
With the Government's popularity in the balance, and the Freedom at 63 movement's strength in numbers - even if this law passes, the Government may have made a serious gamble here, and might not want to make such a gamble twice; the consequences of which for Esthursia's dependency ratio and working age population are fully in unknown territory.

Government passes anti-fascist law, referendum on Overlaw amendment

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Democratic Preservation Act deregisters "political activism on the basis of fascist values" and bolsters other anti-radical-right laws

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Freedom of expression has always constitutionally been held to be contingent on "constitutional values of others" - namely security, privacy and freedom from discrimination - however fascist and far-right entities have never been explicitly banned by a government.

The Osborne government has, however, passed a law broadly criminalising "the radical and extreme-right", stating that "values of deliberate division and pervasive discrimination of arbitrary groups selected by fascists and ultranationalists is incompatible with liberal democracy." Osborne told reporters in his office:
What are the radical-right and extreme-right?

The radical-right and extreme-right are defined separately under the law. Extreme-right politics are defined in just a smattering of words, and are relatively concise:
The radical-right's definition, however, was more extended.
In short; the extreme-right is explicitly anti-democratic, while the radical-right is "similar" in that it subverts, manipulates and selectively opposes Esthursian democratic values, according to the law's distinctions. Both are to be entirely prohibited from holding public office, registering under or as a political party, or "holding political campaigning activities" in the most clear and extreme cases, and extremism-prevention body Reform is to be involved closely in the programme through referrals, community service and education programmes. Suspensions, fines and monitoring is also to be instituted.

The debate

Harold Osborne himself introduced the bill into the House of Thanes after it passed the lower house, stating that it was vital to pass it and to approve the referendum.
Responding to a question from the EPP over the "radical-left banning the radical-right", Osborne reiterated his main points.
Rosemary Manning lent her backing to the act, to the surprise of some in her party, and to the praise of the Liberals, while earning the ire of the EPP. Manning told reporters that the act was "common sense democratic preservation", and "very Esthursian". Ingley made a statement to the ENBC, however, telling otherwise:
Despite the EPP's words of condemnation, 2 of the EPP's thanes broke rank and voted alongside the vote, exposing some internal divides between the neoliberal and traditional conservative / neoconservative flanks of the new party.
Who could be banned?

The range of possible bans goes all the way from the hard-right to the far-right - with the neofascist Renewal Front almost certainly prohibited and already deregistered from the Electoral Commission, giving two more seats to vacancy, while certain EPP members also face suspensions and bans - while many on the far-left, such as those in the authoritarian flank of Socialist Front, are also facing bans from politics as a result of the act. The bounds are slightly fluid, however the High Deemery and the parliamentary watchdog have been rumoured to be communicating with the Electoral Commission, the Citizens' Assembly for the Constitution, and other legal experts and bodies, to work out exactly the bounds at which the law will be pushed to.
Aftermath

With the law receiving crown assent and the referendum underway for mid-December, the future of the radical-right is being decided in front of us - however, already enforceable, it appears that the extreme fringe of the right and left alike who advocate for authoritarian ideals has reached the end of the road, and that Esthursia has truly put its democracy's future over freedom of expression once and for all.

Law banning "wearing overt religious symbols" in schools passes narrowly despite Government rebellion

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Jeremy Wilson and John Largan amongst high-profile rebels against the Social Democratic whip

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Passing without an absolute majority of 99 (with 2 vacant), on a verdict of 89-82 - with a high number of "hold" abstentions, 27 - the Secularity in Schools Act has begun a ban on "overt religious symbols" in state schools enacted from the start of the New Year's second term in January. Despite Government insistence that the law is just and "safeguards the secularity of our schools", it will be hard for them to ignore possibly this term's first big rebellion - 32 of 100 Social Democrats, including two senior Reeves (John Largan and Jeremy Wilson, the latter being the second-in-command of the Redery behind Osborne) voting explicitly against the act and more holding, refused to vote for the law. Abstentions included Alfred Frome (Reeve for the Ellands), the new Reeve for Public Security Hálvdan Højgaard, and the Chancellor, Edelard Burnside.

The law itself has been condemned by human rights groups, education unions, the Liberals - whose leader George Balder called it a "deeply shameful dereliction of human rights obligations and religious dignities for Esthursians" - and the Moderates, while it has been lauded by some reputed ASH-aligned* sources as well as Green-Left leader Charlotte Atkinson and the EPP, and proved divisive in polling (with 57% supporting it, 38% opposing it, and 15% unsure according to one EsthursiaElects poll). The law will grant significant powers to teachers and schools to send home students who break guidelines around wearing "overt religious symbols" in schools, which has also been criticised as deliberately ambiguous and thus hard to counter in law.

The aftermath

What crisis the government may have avoided narrowly in the legislature, however, it may be facing both internally - with internal sources saying much of the Redery's anger over the law's passage isn't going anywhere anytime soon, with an emergency Redery meeting by Osborne being nicknamed a "bloody bin fire" - as well as externally, with education unions such as the National Anning for Learning (NAL) holding a statement on the matter, "refusing to rule out a teachers' strike" in retaliation.
The Esthur People's Party, who are usually critical of the Government on its legislation, fully backed the legislation - with only 1 of its 8 thanes holding, and the rest voting alongside it. This time, it was the Moderates who led the opposition once again - with not a single of its 45 thanes voting for the legislation, and only a smattering holding, making up around half of the dissenting members. Rosemary Manning attended a television morning news programme on IBC (Up and Early Esthursia) to speak out against the law.

The Government have cited the Arbjern government's "Athersist education" programmes - legitimising corporal punishment for children for stepping out of line from "Athersist education practices", as well as teaching creationism and removing the curriculum's focus on Church atrocities such as its identification with "Osynstric first" racialist policies* in the same period - as the key reasons for supporting "staunch secularisation of state education". The source went on to note that the policy on prohibiting religious schools was upheld as constitutional, and that schools should be a "sanctuary for emancipation for all their students, not one promoting authoritarian obligation." Many have either viewed the law as an overcorrection, or an outright loss of the rights of religious individuals in an Esthursia 64 years on from Olafn Arbjern's deposition.

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ASH-aligned - ASH, or the Atlish Society for Humanism, was formed in the late 1950s as a resistance movement to the Arbjern government's suppression, particularly its leveraging of Athersism as a political weapon. ASH remained a nominally underground group advocating for state secularism, and has many key public figures, including reportedly Harold Osborne, Jeremy Wilson and Alfred Frome.

"Osynstric first" racialist policies* - The Arbjern regime (1955-1959), led by Olafn Arbjern of the far-right fascist Nationalist Party, operated a system of labour camps for those deemed to be stepping "outside the Athersist-Osynstric renewal plan" (directly supplanted from the ORF fascist revolutionary movement 3 decades prior), and subjected leftists (especially those in the Workers' Union), atheists, the LGBTQ+ community and those speaking languages outside of Atlish, as well as Cumbric language group speaking minorities in the West Riding, to years of hard labour and suppression, as well as state-sponsored violence and brutal suppression of protests therewith. The Arbjern regime fell as quickly as it rose, steadily losing control of state apparatus in the early months of 1959 - especially with the assassination of Home Minister Edwin Bard by a retired police officer involved in the Tynwald atrocity - while it faced a constant obstacle through the King's refusal to assent to select legislation.

AUTUMN BUDGET: Burnside declares Esthursia post-capitalist, amid end to "shareholder banking" and large tax-to-spend programmes

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National Insurance scrapped as government looks to taxing capital assets and raising land value tax amid attack on "hoarded wealth"

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The socialisation of banking, the democratisation of the workplace, the end to "market rents" with new rent controls - amid a wider "decommodification of housing" - and now a radical shift from taxing income to taxing wealth, with personal taxes likely to fall dramatically for many - predicted to drive consumption up significantly in 2024 - while taxes on "hoarded wealth", raising the public purse by hundreds of billions over the next few years, not even including the existing wealth tax raise instituted last year by outgoing Chancellor Bowen while not reducing private consumption at all.

What is the government actually doing?

A lot of jargon, and a lot of economics terms, surround the government's plans - Fourth Way, post-capitalism, economic democratisation, industrial democracy, worker ballots, co-operativism, credit unions and so on - but the gist of the government's policy is best summed up by the EFEP, a leftwing think tank:




Where do we go from here?

Esthursia is likely to see yearly output rise dramatically in coming years, and wealth concentrations fall equally dramatically, as the Burnside Chancellery estimates that the taxes will take "roughly ten to twenty years to begin to reach natural rates", before which spending will be heavily elevated year on year as a result.

Other prospects put forward by the INS, Esthursia's national statistics body, include the "sale and splitting of Esthursia's remaining aristocratic holdings", including to the Kingswoods Trust, as well as a rise in construction on existing land, a temporary fall in land prices as sales rise, and a rise to consumption as people's wages rise and personal income taxes fall. Interestingly, Burnside has called the notion of transitioning fully to taxing by wealth as "entirely theoretical and way off at present", however that most Esthurs "will possibly aim to enjoy some of the world's lowest tax burdens with some of the world's best public sectors."

The FASP - the Forum of Atlish Societal Progress, a rightwing think tank - has criticised the process as "double-taxation", called Esthursia "anti-investment" - though accepted that investment rates were set to rise in coming years, attributing this to globalisation - and warned of a "mass exodus of the rich". A government source raised the DBCFT and the "fairly obvious immobility of land", and cited that even at the first few years of the wealth tax's institution, capital flight was dwarfed by raised spending.

The Moderates have been critical of the Government's "rhetoric", calling on them to return "back to the mainstream by accepting capitalism as anything other than their current assumption of its unparalleled evil", and that "centuries of history have proven it can be harnessed". Similarly, Manning has chosen to oppose the banks' socialisation, stating that it was "draconian socialism at work". Moderates, however, have chosen not to oppose personal income tax cuts, amid fear of public backlash, raising questions over whether a Moderate government would replace the radical increase in annual output and budgetary spending with borrowing, "secondary taxes" or cutbacks, or a mixture of any of those.

Possibly the most contentious issue may have been the workplace democratisation initiatives - the EPP has called the policy "communism masquerading as liberalism", while Osborne has defended it, by decrying what he says is a "culture of top-down illiberalism in attitudes towards liberal democratic workplaces that would not be tolerated if we were talking about the state."

Social Democrats, meanwhile, are facing a confused picture - their economic policy has been cited as key for boosting wages and living standards as well as lifting Esthursia out of recession into a modern boom, however its sustainability in the long-term has been called into question, while some side effects - such as the recent decision to raise the pension age to 69 - have directly caused tensions with workers and pensioners alike.

The policies appear to be working for the most part - productivity, investment, wages and economic output are all undeniably rising, while homelessness, poverty and unemployment are falling, while Esthursia's economic equality is rapidly improving - however the longevity of this period of economic growth as we enter new territory, or whether the stream dries up and the economy goes into reverse in a generation's time, is entirely up for a lively debate. In the words of 18th century Esthursian welfarist and thinker Mikkjal Kjærbo, "the fundamental issue with social utilitarianism as I see it is not its implementation, but its longevity" - the thinkings of Kjærbo on other subjects, such as his advocacy for separation of church and state, his warmth towards the idea of "social expenditure", his attitudes towards gender equality, his radicalism, and his calls for homosexuality to be decriminalised, have long shaped the Esthursian left behind Kjærboist thought - but his words may come to haunt them just yet, two whole centuries after his death. But the fundamental point has remained - Esthursia's government have cemented the country as "post-capitalist".

Cordane election 2023: Populist Ynogh! win joint-second-most seats after "campaign on immigration"

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Highly uncertain election results have left a splintered Cordanian Assembly and coalition-building likely to necessitate serious compromise

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Election results

Enough! (right, Cordane Atlish language logo) surprised many by placing second

Alliance (conservative-liberal) - 27 (-18)
Enough! (anti-immigration populist) - 23 (+15)
Solidarity (democratic socialist) - 23 (+5)
Centre (centrist populist) - 20 (+3)
Liberal (left-of-centre social liberal) - 11 (-5)
Cordane 2050 (liberal populist e-democratic) - 10 (+4)
Green (ecosocialist) - 9 (+2)
Left-Alternative (far-left collectivist) - 7 (=)
National Conservative (nationalist conservative) - 7 (-4)
Progressive (centre-left progressive) - 5 (+2)
Freedom (neoliberal libertarian) - 5 (-1)
Arverth (trade unionist left) - 3 (+2)
Third Way (Third Way centrist) - 2 (+1)
National People's Party (radical-right) - 1 (=)
Agrarian (right-of-centre rural) - 1 (-4)

Incumbent coalition (Alliance-Liberal-Centre-Agrarian) - 55 (-24)

Background

First Minister Vander (left) faces a dilemma to maintain power for a third term as he faces calls to step down

Edvard Vander's right-of-centre Alliance party have been in power for 6 years, or two terms, and have faced off against the left twice successfully - they seem to have done so a third time, however the right-liberal Coalition has still faced heavy losses (far heavier than the slight setback of 2020), leaving the prospect of a continued coalition exclusively in the centre to centre-right in the bin - yet the left has only made at best marginal headway, and is nowhere near the footing they were on in the early 2010s. Vander told the ENBC last night that he "was proud of a third election victory", and confirmed that negotiations with "expected parties" were underway, however refused to deny a possibility of a coalition formed without Alliance. He has also stated that he has no intention to resign, although some figures - such as Katell Gane, the leader of Centre and one of the former After Ministers (deputy first ministers) in the previous coalition - have publicly called for him to step down.

Polls had initially suggested that the government was on track to stay in power before the summer, however by September, Vander's popularity and the government's combined polling began to fall. Even including that swing, polls had only recorded part of the sudden uptick of Enough! support, to the point that it expected them to come fourth - not second - as recently as last week.

The left's celebrations were quick in response - Solidarity's leader Frida Midjørd hailed the "unprecedented breakthrough of the opposition against this government", and interestingly, refused to rule out entering a coalition with Enough!. The left in Cordane has often been very different than that in the mainland - typically more radical, and less focused on foreign policy - and Solidarity's relative passivity to the idea of working with a hardline anti-immigration populist party due to common ground over trade unionism and economic interventionism may be yet another sign of that; the idea of the mainland Social Democrats doing the same with an equivalent party would be outlandish.

Enough! leader Gale Østergard (right) celebrated last night as his populist anti-immigration party tripled its seats in one night, and stands to be a key arbitrator in the coming coalition negotiations

The leader of Enough!, Gale Østergard, referred to the results as "generational and outstanding even by our own expectations", claiming that he had "won a mandate against mass migration, and against Cordane being used as a powerless target," as well as a "resounding backlash against the incumbent coalition's complacency and status quo neoliberal elitism." He also brought up the party's youth vote - which overtopped both Solidarity and Alliance at 37% - and stated that "only Enough! promised to end income tax for young people, to promise public transport fees to be annulled for under-25s and to offer a future dividend." His parliamentary group tripled due to the poll, putting him joint-second with Solidarity. In an interview, Østergard denied that he was "radical-right", citing his economic policies and basing his anti-immigration politics "from a fear of migrants refusing to adhere to our social rights such as secularism, gender equality and same-sex marriage."

The Esthursian government published a statement on the election, stating that while it "congratulated the respective parties in the recent election," it also "urged restraint and humanitarian concern against the rise of populism", with the Forethane calling the sudden rise of populism in Cordane and of immigration as a key issue as "deeply worrying and quite insensitive," though reiterating that he would work constructively with whichever regional government was formed. The Home Minister, Elisabeth Albany, stated that she "congratulated the parties on their successes," confirmed that the government had been in contact with "leading parties and their leaderships", but stated that she "could not deny Berworth's* understandable concern over related recent events." The Social Democrats have historically been close to Solidarity, however the last generation has been turbulent for the relationship - 1990s Solidarity leader Ethel Heath refused to attend the Willesden-led Social Democrats' meeting in Cordane, seen by most as a shun of the party's neoliberal turn in 1999, while as recently as 2019 Osborne referred to Solidarity as "hardline" - and the possibility for Solidarity to participate in an anti-immigration coalition in Cordane may fracture the relationship further. The Moderates' relations with Alliance are inverse - Alliance have been quick to condemn the Moderates' anti-immigration stances, while Rosemary Manning hinted that "stubbornness" on migration was a key reason behind last night's major losses for Vander's Alliance, despite their relatively similar ideological leanings elsewhere. A source from Alliance had even responded with direct criticism at the Moderates' "hypocrisy over electoral defeat", citing that the mainland's right hadn't won any out of the last five elections.

Far-left Solidarity leader Frida Midjørd (left) has refused to rule out a coalition with populist Enough! and distanced herself from the Esthursian left's pro-immigration stances

Immigration may have been the key swinger for many - Cordane's population is set to rise by over two-percent this year as a result of immigration, mainly from the housing of refugees (some temporarily, some permanently) from the Iolantan-Sorovian border crisis, and while Alliance defended its programmes adhering to the central government's "open arms, open borders" stances, Solidarity refused to back the policy, while Enough! campaigned squarely against it - with 61% of Cordanians polling that mass immigration was "failing" and 55% that multiculturalism "could hurt Esthursian cultural values", it is unsurprising that the region often seen as a centrist bulwark has swung so decisively against Alliance on the matter, further complicated by the popularity of the central government's economic record but opposition to its foreign policy, which Enough! further is said to have capitalised on in campaigning to the left economically and domestically, and to the right on migration and international issues. Likewise, the Centre Party distinguished itself from the incumbent coalition's warmth to immigration, and implicitly backed Enough!'s rhetoric over border control as well as stating that Cordane should "condemn nations unwilling to fully oppose Sorovia," claiming that they "were responsible for the strain that Cordane has been put under for the past six months." Centre became the only coalition party to gain in the end.

Turnout in this election may also signal that voters who normally don't vote in the regional election have come out for this one - 67.9% of the electorate voted in the 2023 poll, well over the 55.2% who voted 3 years ago, and one of the highest recorded for Cordanian electoral history (barely even below the national 70-75% range for the last ten years) - which further has been used to explain how populist parties were able to almost all gain significantly in this election.

Aftermath

Katell Gane (right), the leader of the Centre Party, has called for the First Minister to "step back" amid the "unfortunate result given to his party last night"

With possibly the most splintered electoral result in Cordanian history - and only a generation after many remember Solidarity and Alliance typically winning at least three-quarters of the seats alone - the path to renewed government is possible to be long, and divisive, with not even any two of the three largest parties being enough to form government. 76 is the goal - and even a coalition of the right would require the Liberal party, who are left-of-centre, pro-immigration and ruled out a coalition with Enough! before the election result, while a coalition of the left would require the centre and far-left to unite, with Enough! and Solidarity and left-wing economic parties also not being enough without co-operating with pro-immigration liberals; all in all, Cordane is in for a long period of uncertainty, and the prospect of another election is not gone just yet. Alliance is bruised, but certainly not beaten, and Solidarity may have just missed a crucial chance at gaining the keys to government - and Enough! may be the unexpected kingmakers, as might the Centre or Liberals, all of whom have differing views on key issues, with Centre open to co-operation with Enough! on migration and the Liberals angered by such stance.

First Minister Vander has entered this election expecting continuity, and left it facing an upward battle to form, at best, a grand coalition of the centre, right and nationalists, and at worst, being locked out of power as the largest party after serious losses - for all his talk of victory, it may be either a long way away, or just out of reach. Meanwhile, friction between the bolstered anti-immigration movement in Cordane and both pro-refuge politicians like Vander and the central government are likely to get far worse in coming months and years if the election result is anything to go by, and the condemnations from human rights groups and even some government ministers will likely redouble should Enough! enter government.

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- Berworth - the Houses of Berworth, i.e. referring to the legislature, often used in a way to refer to the government.

2023: Ereyule rounding off by downfall of Rosemary Manning

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A month which saw a momentous Esthursia-Ultramont trade deal and the first elected Premier now sees the Againsthood leader resign

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Apart from public sector pay and the Forethane's address, politics is said to end on the fifth week of Ereyule, and kick off on the New Year the following week - this year appears no different, and has gone out with a bang, as Ereyule has seen (at least) three headline-topping news articles.

EUPA


The sixth of Ereyule saw the signature of the EUPA - Esthursia-Ultramont Partnership Agreement - which consolidated relations, standardised and eased trade and customs, and established protocol for nuclear testing (limiting tests to underground only), though notably did not advocate for the non-proliferation of nuclear arms; Esthursia has long been a strong candidate for the continent's most nuclear-friendly country, while Ultramont's nuclear weapons programme is kicking into third gear in recent months, following tests of its first bomb in following weeks.

The two nations had grown closer diplomatically - Esthursia's decision to leverage sanctions onto Iolanta was followed swiftly by Ultramont, while Ultramont's decision to revoke diplomatic contact with Iolanta was equally swiftly followed by a concordant decision by Esthursia's government - and EUPA further built on this desire for building common ground. Furthermore, Esthursia's representative Heiðrún Jóhannsdóttir stressed that the trade liberalisation of the two countries was positive, as was their common interest in preserving democratic freedoms and socio-civic rights, when she met with Chancellor André Plombfèvre in Gabréal for the eponymous summit.

Major indicators of the importance of the EUPA include its customs zone - heavily freeing up trade between the two countries - while a specific customs union over specific sectors (such as fossil fuels, automotives, pharmaceutical goods and finance) was birthed. With Ultramont's Beaudouin lauding it as "forward-minded" and Esthursia's Osborne welcoming it as an "important step of progress for Auroria; in trade, diplomacy, employment and continental democracy", the two countries' relations became highly warm in a year that has often seen acrimony, not warmth, rise between different countries.

Belgræv and Bløndal elected Premiers

Valter Belgræv and Hrefna Bløndal were elected as the nation's de facto heads of state on the same date - the election on the fifth of Ereyule delivered them as winners on the morning of the Gabréal summit the following day. Belgræv and Bløndal swept the first round, easily beating competition from Anthony Black (Social Democrat and former Chancellor), who has since become a thane in the upper house and re-entered mainstream legislative politics. Many have seen the government's backseat approach and the choice of Anthony Black, a candidate who seems to have planned quite clearly to use the candidacy as a leverage into the fray of party politics again, as a tacit approval of the pact between the environmentalist Bløndal and Auroskeptic liberal Belgræv.

Belgræv's staunch globalism has been known for some years, but his selection as Esthursia's three-month UAS President for the Gregorian calendar's 1 July, 2023 (2 Arralithe, 2978) has been seen as the key determinant in his radical politics; his presidency saw the collapse of UAS structures lay bare, and his increasingly public frustrations at the inability of internal processes - amid the withdrawal of Sorovia and Tardine as applicant nations following "undue" delays - and he became vocal in his criticism of the UAS by September, resigning as UAS President. Esthursia would never replace him, and exited the union effective on the fourth of Halsen 2978 (1 November), transitioning fully on the fourth of Ereyule (1 December) from departure status after signing a trade deal to maintain open relations and customs with Aubervijr. Belgræv's role in this process - whose resignation effectively overturned a referendum in its sheer weight, setting in motion Esthursia's withdrawal from the UAS - made him a key public figure, and his candidacy came soon after, promising to "push for Esthursia to put Scalvia at the bottom of the diplomatic list" as part of a wider range of controversial, blunt tactics and positions aimed at re-evaluating diplomatic ties with nations viewed as inert on issues such as the Iolantan border crisis. His attitudes have undoubtedly had an effect on the views of the wider population - with 66% saying the UAS was a bad idea, 69% saying Esthursia should "act against omissions of diplomatic responsibilities", and public perceptions of Iolanta statistically indistinguishable from all-nil disapproval - with even the government's more cautious approach undoubtedly influenced or at least relatable to Belgræv's far more now than ever before, following the eruption of Esthursian-Scalvian tension amid a sunken trade deal a month ago. Belgræv has long condemned Iolanta, and welcomed the Esthursian government's staunch support against Iolanta in recent months, while supporting further ties with Sorovia - his first international visit two weeks ago was to Tshena, on the Sorovo-Iolantan border, amid rising tensions and winter conditions putting more refugees at risk.

Bløndal, by contrast, has looked in rather than out for her campaign, running on a campaign of "federalisation, transparency reform and environmentalism", calling the government's lithium mining "problematic" and supporting campaigns by "yellow independents" in the South Downs ahead of the local elections in April. Bløndal, mostly known for her leadership of Helmark's branch of Green-Left until 2020, has long called for the decentralisation of power, "Cordane-class federalisation for all ridings" - a proposal currently and repeatedly rejected by Berworth - and the "cleaning out" of state institutions. Her campaign focused also on youth interests, including environmentalism but also globalism as a positive force, steering clear of controversial quagmires suchlike the UAS problem and focusing on progress with the "Allied Nations" proposal, set to be set up on New Year's Day 2024 between Esthursia, Prydania and Norsia as its founding members, and a plethora of other nations signalling interest as the date approaches.

The two have navigated to power on a 53.1% verdict in round one, more than the opposition combined and far ahead of Anthony Black, the initial favourite and Social Democrat candidate. After meeting King Arthur on their scheduled visit of 35 Ereyule (31 December), they are expected to be given essentially full oversight of the head of state positions.

Esthursia's transition to democracy has been slow, but steady, and with King Arthur approaching ninety-four years of age, and the 2022 jubilee decision to absolve the heir - currently, and since his birth, Crown Æþling Llewellyn (Llyn) - the end is very much foreseeable for Esthursia's 340 year history as a constitutional monarchy.

Rosemary Manning resigns as Moderates leader

The Moderates are about to see their first leadership contest since the merger of most Liberals and the Conservative Union last year, as Manning steps down as Leader of the Againsthood and Leader of the Moderates after five years in these positions, having been elected as Leader of the now-defunct Conservative Union in Halsen 2973 (November 2018). Manning cited her "advancing age" - noting that she turns 70 next year, but also that her "transitional leadership" overseeing the new party has "necessitated the nurturing of a new generation of moderate politicians for Esthursia."

Manning had overseen possibly the most tumultuous period of rightwing politics in Esthursia - from the splinter of the EPP, who remain an electoral force (and who came to bite back Manning in October, beating their incumbent party to a second and splitting the vote, allowing Osborne to clinch his long-sought majority government), to the merger of most Liberal members and the Conservative Union as a new party, ending over 300 years of the Conservative Union's prominence.

However, the last few months had intensified scope on her as had not existed before - her popularity sat at an all-time low according to YouLede monthly approval figures at -27.5, compared to Osborne's +0.5 (himself lower than typical, amid pension reform and environmental opposition), and her own +3 approval 12 months prior. Manning had long been more popular than the parties she led - she was ten points clear of the Moderates last Ereyule - yet has fallen significantly below them, and thus lost her position as the electoral asset she once was as the historic ringleader of the anti-Einarsson coalition in the late 2000s and early 2010s, especially dented by very poor innings at the Astorn (April) local polls and even worse hit by a landslide defeat in the Midlands to Social Democratic candidate Isolda Marlow. Opposition only grew further from there, and with few in the party openly supporting her leadership, it could even be speculated that she jumped before she was pushed.

The resignation of Manning comes at a particularly important time for the centreright - with the Social Democrats well ahead but Osborne falling from positive to relatively neutral, there is significant ground for a popular Moderated leader to close the gap, though popularity of the government on the economy, public services, crime/justice and foreign relations will likely complicate the path to the end of the post-2018 electoral desert for the right, if there is one to be uncovered. Likely candidates will probably come from the right and centre, with the left-of-centre Liberal Moderate Committee (LMC) and rightwing Bourne Group all convening to nominate a candidate, and more mainstream groups in the right-of-centre party likely to follow suit soon enough.

Imperative for the Moderates, however, is to keep party infighting to a minimum. Infighting on the right has long been a thorn in their sides, with Moderate representative Frank Belbost referring to "endless squabbling" as a key reason for their defeats in 2018, early and late 2022 and recent local elections, as well as in both the rise and fall of Manning. The 2018 election, which the Conservative Union was heavily leading into with polling leads of 5 points and Alborough ahead of Osborne on best Forethane as late as four weeks before polling day, exposed the lack of party unity or discipline which played a key role in their defeat to Osborne, who clinched an unexpected majority for the following four years. The Social Democrats have even commented on the current resignation, wishing Manning the best but branding what they call "persistent focus on internal fights and blunders rather than representing the country nor their constituents" as "clearly part of the Moderate manifesto going into the next election," while Liberal leader George Balder welcomed the "end of Manning's increasingly illiberal-liberalism", calling for the next leader to "appeal to common sense centrist voters on pro-immigration, welfarist grounds, not right-wing dog whistles and fear politics."

Possibly the most outspoken opponent of the Moderates have been the EPP, whose statement on the Manning resignation called the party "in its death throes", and blamed its "confused mixture of bleeding heart liberalism and insincere rightism" for the ruptures of Cordanian politics, the popularity of the government "despite a radicalising left and less than popular Forethane", and the rise of Ynogh! on the populist-left in some impoverished regions in Esthursia thereafter. Graham Ingley has long opposed Rosemary Manning, leaving her Conservative Union over her pro-self ID vote, and welcomed her departure without congratulating her for any achievements.

Whether the Moderates turn left or right in coming months, whether Belgræv and Bløndal unite or divide, whether EUPA signals the exception to rising division in Auroria or a positive juncture from a divisive era, one thing's for sure - 2979 (or 2024 for our international readers) is already looking to be an eventful year for Esthursia, and we haven't even done with the current one yet.

Storm Glenn claims 8 lives, southwest hit by worst storm in a decade

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Ereways announce "regional emergency" as lightning, floods and landslides hit much of the west

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Esthursia is known often for its winter storms - Storm Dagný last year brought with it ice-cold conditions, while Storm Lester in 2009 brought unseasonably warm, wet weather from the tropics and broke records - but Storm Glenn has proven to be one of the worst winter storms to hit the country in years for its ferocity. As much as three months' worth of rainfall has occurred overnight in parts of the southwest, while the River Dene's banks bursting flooded a new housing estate - luckily, an estate with preparations for such an event - along its banks in Hancroft.

Similarly in Osynstry's secluded southwest, lightning struck badly not once, but twice. Its first strike was on the Southall First School, so severe that heating and power was knocked off, and that some of those in IT rooms were admitted to hospital with minor burns, caused by electric shocks merely from keyboards. The Alderman of Hancroft, Ash Guþrick, called the school's staff and evacuation "heroically well-done", while the Government released a statement praising the conduct of staff in safely evacuating, especially "under the suspicion that a fire had potentially broken out."

A second hit poor Ricky Tilborough, who was merely playing kickball out in a field in suburban Denewent, south-southwest Osynstry, when a particularly severe lightning strike left him with life-threatening severe burns. Osborne and Manning have reportedly visited Denewent King's Almshouse (DKA) together, where Ricky is being treated, as a sign of unity and compassion. Rosemary Manning remains Leader of the Againsthood until February.

The damage didn't end there - a landslide in the north of Ezhonyth, west of Rennezh, left two coastal towns disconnected and many households evacuated (mostly for safety). Hundreds of kilometres west in Helston, damage to the shore front was estimated by the local government to be "in the tens of millions of shillings." Two fishers further south off the coast of Strantglade have been missing since going out to sea last night, and a cruise ship visiting the Ereways broke off from its moorings in the sudden exceptional winds, leaving its passengers - all safely evacuated, except "mostly minor injuries" for those hit by debris - stranded in a Yonderby port terminal. Passengers were left in a crowded waiting room with "intermittent power outages" for as much as eight hours before the ship was deemed seaworthy and safe for people to re-embark.

Further north, the effects were less severe, but rain turned wintery, causing the Exe Hills and Eftcalls to be covered in several centimetres of snow, as much as 15cm in parts, while an unrelated cold snap in Esthampton caused the first snowfall since February 2016 to fall on the coastal districts. With over half of the country covered in snow as Brantley sits under six weeks' worth of intermittent snowfall.

As 2024 begins, the southwest has quickly been given a horrible start - and the rest of the year will be spent by many folks, families and communities rebuilding from the damage dealt by Storm Glenn. For the families and loved ones of those hurt or killed, it may be the rest of their lives - but we will always be on their side, and Esthursia will always band together in these dark times, whether or not all of us are affected.

Anti-radical pact gives Jowan Perran open path to Moderate leadership, Ynogh! appoint Will Dagnall as leader

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Dagný Leven and Edgar Thrupp have been elected deputy leaders and appointed as Shadow Chancellor and Shadow Reeve for the Ellands as part of anti-Dagnall pact

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Three of the four Moderate candidates have appeared to agree on one thing; the radical-right was going to be locked out. And so it was - the centrist progressive Jowan Perran, aiming to both be the Manningite continuity candidate but fuse in some liberalising, interventionist and pro-immigration stances, had shook hands with both the Atlish Times-dubbed "blue socialist" Dagný Leven and the right-liberal Edgar Thrupp. Leven's rise as a major candidate had been unexpected - she had initially trailed behind fellow leftist Mildred Valwood, but her outflanking of Valwood's positions proved popular with Moderate liberals - while Thrupp had been often ahead of Perran in the polls; this lead, however, evaporated whenever one-on-one contests were polled.

Willard Dagnall had always been the darling of the right from the start of the contest last December. A staunch anti-immigration advocate, he called for a complete end to the government's refuge plans, and a cap on allowed immigrants, including schemes to limit families arriving and wind down the homelessness schemes for non-citizens, calling Esthursia "Auroria's homeless shelter" in his campaigns. His signing of a pact on the right to "wind back the post-Einarsson radical social policy agenda", including on same-sex marriage, transgender rights and the voting age, all drew the ire of centrists and the Social Democrats, while the contest's dividing lines were defined primarily by Will Dagnall.


Dagný Leven (right) has been newly appointed joint deputy leader and Shadow Chancellor after winning momentum from the party's left flank

Yet, weeks on, Dagnall had defected to Ynogh! - the economically interventionist but staunchly anti-immigration party - and the party announced its intention to stand a full field of candidates in the 2026 elections, bringing another populist party to the mainland. Ynogh! currently poll at 6% in Esthursia, above the HNU and close to the EPP, which if replicated in the 2026 election would result in winning seats in the Houses of Berworth.

Despite this division, the Moderates otherwise seem to have held together. Jowan Perran was always a popular candidate - nicknamed by many as "a modern Manning" for his public opposition to Manning's later anti-immigration stances and his socially progressive policies - and the Moderates have already polled within 5 points of the Social Democrats, who are in the mire of a transphobia scandal amid the resignation of their Reeve for Learning, Algar Marbeck, for social media messages in the 2010s. The honeymoon might not last - Osborne remains relatively tolerated, and the Moderates' party image remains poorer than the Social Democrats even despite the recent scandal thanks to internal unity and good government records - but it will certainly be a welcome surprise for the post-Manning party.

Jowan Perran is nearly 40 years younger than his predecessor, and has spoken of "bringing the centre into the 30th hundredyere" jokingly* - his election, as well as Dagný Leven's success (who is just three years elder at 37), marks the end of the era where the right was dependent on elder statesmen, while the party has begun pushing on the slogan "out with old Osborne", as he approaches his 10th year in power this month.


Edgar Thrupp (left) was appointed as Shadow Reeve for the Ellands and joint deputy leader amid his support from the party's liberal-right flank, including from Eddard Ostock and Ægan Ossett

Dagný Leven as Shadow Chancellor has vowed to bring the Moderates "closer to the people" and invent an "Esthursian liberalism", while Edgar Thrupp has already met with his counterpart Alfred Frome as Shadow Reeve and Reeve for the Ellands to coordinate foreign policy - the two, unusually for a leftist and rightist, have significant common ground on international issues. The cooperation across party lines, last seen in the first years of the Manning party which slowly receded as she drifted right, has been lauded by Social Democrats as the "return of common sense", while attacked by more rightwing Moderates as "complicity" in government issues.

Dagnall's appointment as Ynogh!'s national leader came after a social media statement decrying the "flock of different shades of liberals conspiring against common sense conservatism", as he spoke out against the "New Social Democrats that the Moderates had turned into," following Perran's acceptance of the government's social programmes. Perran's heritage from Merthing and his sexuality make him the youngest Leader of the Againsthood in decades, the first Merthinger, and the first openly LGBTQ+, which the Examiner suggested was "unfortunately the likely hidden reason behind Dagnall's characterisation of the Moderates as overly liberal."

With the Moderates in touching distance of leading the polls for the first time since the end of 2017, and more united than ever, the Social Democrats are facing their biggest threat to their electoral chances in quite some time; maybe even a Forethane Jowan Perran is on his way.

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*30th hundredyere; the Atlish calendar is currently at 2979 rather than 2024, meaning that Perran is promising to bring the party past the 1940s.

Former Forethane John Largan resigns in post-Algargate reshuffle amid economic reforms

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"Fourth Way economics has evolved from recovery to growth," says Harold Osborne following a reshuffle of his Redery

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The end of the month has seen the Osborne government attempt to adjust to the recent transphobia scandal surrounding since-sacked Reeve for Education Algar Marbeck, who has been suspended from the Social Democrats pending an investigation, following discovery of his comments alleging transgender women were "men in dresses" during the self-ID votes in the Thanage six years ago. Osborne barely scrapes above new Againsthood leader Jowan Perran, who is twenty years his junior and significantly more popular with young people especially than Rosemary Manning, while his party polls only five to seven points above the Moderates according to recent polling averages. Today also marks Harold Osborne's reaching nine years in office, making him the longest-serving Forethane since the Workers' Union Forethane Tanja Olsen (1941-1952).

There have been two key results; Harold Osborne's government has used both the entrance into the AN and the necessitated Redery reshuffle following Algargate to shift its image to the populist left, and that this has resulted in a raft of economic reforms.

The reshuffle
Possibly the most major part of the Redery reshuffle is the departure of John Largan, the Social Democrats' leader between 2006 and 2015, who publicly commented on the matter in a conciliatory manner.
Harold Osborne's statement, thanking his "lifelong partner in politics for his lifelong service to the country", seems to mask what may have been an internal schism; Largan has publicly cast doubt on party policies in the recent past, and the last week may have pushed him over the edge, according to internal sources, added to Largan reaching his mid-60s this year. Sigrid Beck, Largan's replacement, has stated that she will "conduct the role of International Co-operation and Trade reeve with the utmost dignity and continue the conduct of [her] predecessor John Largan," and that she had been in "constant talks" with Largan in recent days, anticipating the shift - Beck is 30 years Largan's junior, and a prominent member of the left flank of the party.

(right) Sigrid Beck, the new International Co-operation and Trade reeve and John Largan's replacement in the role

A few other key promotions included Conrad Þagan, who had previously been demoted to Housing but now has replaced Algar Marbeck as Reeve for Learning (formerly Education), as well as prominent New Left spokeswoman Sian Holt, who replaced Dagný Mikkjalsdóttir as Reeve for Care. Willard Hægen, a long-serving Social Democratic thane since the 1990s, was promoted to Reeve for Thoroughfare (formerly Transport), while Ægen Tolkin was appointed as the new reeve in the department of Internet and Telecommunications. Megan Corre, an Ezhoneg political scientist, replaced Anne Greystones as Reeve for Democracy and the Overlaw.

The tenth year of Osborne administration appears to have started as his administration had intended to move - in a more overtly left-wing direction. Jeremy Wilson's apparent approval of the reshuffle, calling the new Redery "forward-facing and in solidarity with the nation's working people", also signalled towards the potential of his returned rise in power within the party. The promotion of Atlish above Mercanti was also present in the names, whereby Osborne chose to substitute Mercanti names with that of Atlish.

"Fellowship economics" - what does it mean?

The last few weeks has also seen the Chancellor of the Landsfere, Edelard Burnside, and the Forethane, as well as key reeves, use a new term - fellowship economics. In short, the policy appears to be an adaptation to Fourth Way economics, exemplified by the passage of the Working Rights Act 2024 and the "citizens' dividends" in recent days.

(right) Edelard Burnside, approaching the end of his first year as Chancellor of the Landsfere, has overseen a move towards collectivism in the government's economic approach, having been Green-Left leader before 2023 and remaining Collective Interest (CI) spokesperson

The Working Rights Act, as passed by the Thanes this week, allowed for the institution of a 30-hour workweek* - with overtime beyond this point, and further regulations to prevent overworking - reforms to the minimum wage (boosting it to ʃ11.05 ($16.76) an hour) as well as a new weekly minimum of ʃ385 ($585) for full-time workers. It also introduced increased penalties for "infringements on the exercise of freedom of association", wage theft and "unpaid work coercion," as well as extending redundancy pay to two weeks’ pay for every year of service (over age 15) plus one additional week’s pay. The workweek law's aim, according to the Chancellery, is to increase employment by "making it more cost-effective to employ additional workers than merely paying overtime", and to "decommodify the Esthursian workforce", prioritising work-life balance - Esthursia's unemployment rate has steadily crept up to 4% in recent years, while its youth unemployment rate stands well in double figures.

The second change was a "triple wealth levy". The first added lithium mining to the inputs for the sovereign wealth fund, the second increased inheritance tax on those with over ʃ5 million in assets upon death to double child trust funds to ʃ1,000 at birth, and the third set up a levy on those with over ʃ1 billion in capital or land as well as drawing from investment from Esthursian natural gas and lithium reserves to pay citizens' dividends to each citizen, estimated to be ʃ150-ʃ200 per year, with under-18s to receive this payment to their trust funds. Burnside commented that these measures were to "set up a stake in society from the cradle, and to promote the Esthursian model from a young age," pointing to Esthursia's low house prices and high social housing stock, high level of university education (57% at age 19 including ovingsteads/trade schools), strong work-life balance, universal healthcare and "tolerant and pro-natalist" social laws as evidence for such model. Polls have suggested that voters are mostly approving of the raft of policies, with only over-65s polling against the moves, while under-30s polled with over 75% support of the move; middle-aged voters, however, were at best lukewarm to the moves, with many fearing a rise in tax burden or a fall in business investment, while doubt remains over whether the moves to increase employment will work. The Moderates have commented against the "new year's tax hike bonanza", however has welcomed the addition of lithium mining to sovereign wealth investment, while the EPP have decried what Ingley claimed was "a creeping culture of communism on both the Esthursian shop floor and inside its esteemed legislature".

The decisions seem to have come after several years of sustained growth, as Esthursia steadily attempts to catch up with its pre-crash trajectory, and as shifts from wealth to income and investment boost spending in the economy for several years running. The Forethane has stated that his focus for the economy "has shifted from recovery to growth as we approach the 2980s*." Questions remain over how sustainable growth is, and how long-term the government's focus is panning out to be; however now 13 years into Social Democratic government, it is understandable why the government want to change focus from the recession to the present.

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*Esthursia operates on a 6-day week, whereby 4 days are working days and 2 are weekend days.
*2980s; 2025-2034

Government sends emergency aid and rescue team to Ultramont following earthquake

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"Esthursia will do whatever is necessary to help our friends across the Northsey*," states a joint statement by the Forethane and Moderates' Jowan Perran

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Harold Osborne (right) delivers a statement to the House of Thanes on the situation in Ultramont in both Santonian and Atlish

Background

Ultramont is currently reeling back from a serious earthquake which brought an onslaught of floods, fires and damage, prompting a significant international response both online and from governments.

The response

In a brief respite from the normal cut-throat politics of Esthursia, the House of Thanes spent most of the day debating over the best way to aid the reconstruction and humanitarian effort in a co-ordinated manner. Statements from citizens' assemblies resulted in the Church of Athersism - whose relationship with the Esthursian government is usually fraught and terse - committing to opening its doors for aid and co-ordinating with the national effort, being praised by the new Reeve for International Co-operation Sigrid Beck as "bridging the divide to help our friends in need", while the UHCS committed to opening a number of hospitals around the country for blood donations to be shipped to Ultramont in its hour of need.

Reeve for the Ellands, Alfred Frome (left), has spoken of Esthursia's "ongoing and strong commitment to our neighbours and friends in Gabréal and the wider nation of Ultramont" in a statement on morning news for the ENBC, praising the country's "resolve in tough times" and calling for "whatever folks can spare the effort."

A package of ʃ155,000,000 in emergency aid to the victims, as well as a "health taskforce" - including thousands of tents and beds, a medical team of twenty-nine people (including twelve doctors), mobile hospital units (MHUs), ambulances, emergency pharmaceutical good supplies as well as feminine sanitary products and antiseptics - as well as a "commodity package" - comprising of water, clothes, foods, sleeping bags and blankets, while a rescue team of twenty Esthurs and two trained rescue dogs (who go by the names Hope and Willard) has also flown to Gabréal. A supplementary package involving specific items such as chemical toilets, gauze, milk powder, and nappies is also expected to be sent in the latter hours of the day.

The Esthursian government also confirmed it will be reaching out to the Ultramontese government in coming hours through diplomatic channels to take in any specific aid requests.


Reeve for International Co-operation Sigrid Beck (right) has spent the past day visited emergency aid centres set up across Asterland*

Local wapentakes have also set up food donation centres in their local town halls, as well as schools, while most universities have co-ordinated aid efforts set up, while the Atlish Society for Humanism (ASH) and Help Beyond Borders (HBB) have similarly rallied communities, members and supporters to supply goods to the quake-stricken areas.

The Esthursian government has also issued warnings to expats and tourists in Ultramont of any further anticipated damage or risk, and strongly urged Esthur nationals to follow national and regional guidance where they are or intend to go, including an express urge to comply with the evacuation order for those around the Gulf of Ultramont.

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the Northsey - the Sea of Constantine/the Crystal Sea as named in Esthursia
Asterland - the mid-eastern region of Osynstry, roughly equivalent to the peninsula Weskerby sits on

Esthursian government "regrets eventual escalation", urges AN Charter's rule of law upheld and decries "velvet wall"

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The government has also warned that Weskerby will "retaliate" should Scalvia not reverse its "trade roadblock" between itself and Sorovia

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Background

The situation between Sorovia and Iolanta has always been fraught; since 2003, when the latter gained full independence from Predice, the treatment of Iolanta's ethnically Sorovian - but culturally distinct - majority in its borders has been described as racist and of "apartheid"-conditions, referencing the word used by Prydanians and Ultramonters for the issue.

Since July of last year, though, things have escalated dramatically - the Iolantan government began deporting its ethnic majority at an unknown rate on the border with Sorovia in order to flood the border and cause a crisis, causing the deaths of many (presumed thousands), and many tens of thousands to become stateless refugees, of which Esthursia has taken in a majority, and democracies across Auroria have done their part to mitigate the crisis' humanitarian toll. Regardless - and despite the efforts of much of the democratic world to sanction and condemn Iolanta, divisions inside of which have been said to allow Iolanta "too much breathing room" - the border crisis continued for months, while diplomatic fractures over the solution to the issue simply worsened the crisis further while no end was in sight.

This is until the Sorovian military set foot in Iolantan territory; according to recent estimates by the Board for Arbitration of War (BAW), Sorovian forces reached the Riska river with "at most a fractured, retreating and disordered force essentially split at the head", and the regional capital of Kuusinimi was occupied following a "limited confrontation and attempt to barricade out the Sorovian force".

The response from this has been widespread - while the crux of arguments put forward by numerous governments have been similar, the balancing between the allegation that the Sorovian government entered Iolanta following no negotiation or ultimatum, and the urgency of the crisis and atrocities committed to the Iolantan Sorovian people, has proven intensely divisive. The Scalvian government has gone as far as to ban all Sorovian airlines from its airspace and entirely suspend customs and trade - an issue that has raised alarms in Weskerby - while the Andrennian government has essentially opposed it, while the Hexastalian government - while somewhat hesitant due to the incursion into foreign territory by force - reiterated their alliance with that of Sorovia, as per the V4.

The responses

The government released a short statement on the matter, seeking to note key issues, stating:

• It is clear that the treatment of ethnic Sorovians in Iolanta was barbaric, completely uncharacteristic of a democracy, and equally undeserving of any form of legitimacy.
• It is also clear that the continuing treatment of these people - which, despite international condemnation, had continued for seven months following the deportations and over twenty years following Iolantan independence - was uninterrupted and urgent. Thousands have died and many more been displaced by the issue, and Iolanta is solely responsible for these humanitarian atrocities fuelled by race hatred.
• The issue of Sorovia invading Iolanta without ultimatum and with somewhat low appetite for negotiation is problematic, however it is clear that the risk for the Iolantan government - a government who were responsible for cynical atrocities against Sorovian people based on hatred - to weaponise that hatred against Sorovians in their negotiation, to leverage divisions within the international community, and to renege on promises ceded during arbitration, in order to continue their established way of governing, of which discrimination and violence against Sorovian people is a key part.
• The issue of Sorovia invading Iolanta without ultimatum and with somewhat low appetite for negotiation is also not simply one of sovereignty. The majority of people residing within the territories involved were treated by Iolanta different to what normal citizens were treated, and the majority of people fell into an ethnic group against whom the government systematically excluded, oppressed and used violence against. There is no current place in Iolantan society and politics - with constitutionally-enshrined restrictions from voting and from equal citizenship - for ethnic Sorovians, and therefore the treatment of these people is tantamount to statelessness, or otherwise near-statelessness. By contrast, we can rely on Sorovia's anti-discrimination laws, record of democratic values, and the fact that the majority of people within these territories are indeed ethnically Sorovians, as well as Sorovia's repeated connections between the systemic racism in Iolanta and its opposition to the Iolantan regime, as reasons why these residents would hypothetically receive a situation far closer to real statehood following this. We understand that the issue is multifaceted here, and that a sovereign state was indeed compromised violently, but it is not an opaque situation and context is vital to the ideal approach.
• Concerns over the infringement on the principles of minimum state use of military action and of diplomacy before war are valid, but in some contexts are prone to be surface-level observations. There is always a place for outside observation, but they cannot satisfy the complexity of the situation of the region's geopolitics and government, and likewise relying on outside observation is potentially dangerous for long-term peace, especially if such judgements induce any further escalation. Outside actors attempting to influence the settlement through escalation will not be humoured, nor will their voices be heard louder if they cause greater damage.
• Esthursia urges that the Sorovian and Iolantan governments respond to this recent escalation, as ever, following the rule of fair law. It reiterates the AN Charter's mentioning of a devotion to political liberty, individual freedoms, and the rule of law, principles that form the basis of all true, genuine democracy, the therefore incoherence of any position that calls Iolanta a democracy at present, and the necessity for all involved to put the interests of the freedoms and liberty of all inhabitants of the region, and the rule of just law, above all else. The pursuit of peace based upon justice is not only vital for the continued existence of human civilisation, but in our view renders peace without justice no peace at all, but simply a monopoly of violence from one state actor onto its people as a form of war.
• Esthursia is obliged to defend Sorovia against threats to its sovereignty, and the interpretation of this will also determine the Esthursian government's approach in coming months, particularly over the settlement of the issue of who has sovereignty over the territories involved in this conflict and the views held by those within. Hypothetically, a region of predominantly Sorovian people who back Sorovian sovereignty and are under the guard of the Sorovian welfare state functioning in Sorovian society and paying their way in have absolutely no reason not to be under the guise of a sovereign area of Sorovia should a future counter-incursion into the territory occur, though it must be said that this is explicitly for the purpose of displaying possible settlements and outcomes.
• We welcome the Prydanian government's suggestion for numerous governments to be involved in a peace process with the AN as a mediator, but urge that the method of inclusion of countries simply down to disruption or willingness to speak up would be a highly counter-productive system, and instead that we must make effort to prioritise the interests of the region's people above all else in all issues, including the selection of relevant nations. The role of the AN as a positive influence on mediating and arbitrating a peaceful, just and humane end to this situation is paramount, and it must be given enough free rein to do so.

Osborne added on a morning radio broadcast, in response to a question asking whether Esthursian relations with countries who have intervened vocally against the intervention would deteriorate, by stating that "all learned statements are fully valid and absolutely we would have no reason to drive our diplomatic aims into the ground simply because we see from two different sides on its own," though alluded to the lack of inclusion of Scalvia in this situation, by continuing with "though any attempt to justify any detrimental escalation whatsoever using one of these statements is a whole different affair that we would have to respond to in time."

The Chancellor cleared up the situation a little more an hour later when he appeared on ENBC's 8h News programme, speaking of the situation created by Scalvian sanctions specifically.

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UPDATE - 5h20, 12 Hreþen, 2978 (11 February, 2024)

The economic response

Harold Osborne confirmed that, "in light of the new costs that the Scalvian government's decisions will incur for Esthursians, which we will not be transferring to Esthursian taxpayers", the Esthursian government would be ending the plan to ringfence the funding of Scalvian investment grants and favourable loans - set to number ʃ2.54 billion in 2024 and ʃ2.2 billion in 2025 - to "reprioritise other key projects" in conjunction with Esthursia's Confederation of Esthursian Civic Banks (CEBC) and the Chancellory, citing the new Cordane high-speed railway line (set to cost approximately ʃ3 billion to construct and an additional ʃ500 million for operating by the first three years), housebuilding programmes under the social housing programmes across Esthursia (targeted especially at councils looking to house refugees from regional conflicts such as that in Iolanta and Aurorea), and hydroelectric power plant construction under the new Vatnyrkja state corporation, mainly in Helvellyn, Helmark and Norwall. The INS estimated the combined costs in 2024 at ʃ2.52 billion and 2025 at ʃ2.4 billion. The loss of trade is likely to be higher, with confidence in trading with Scalvian businesses amidst rising trade conflict to be falling.


Execester retailer Henk Westcott (right) spoke to us from his office in the Abberside area of the city centre, stating that his trade with Scalvian businesses was likely to fall by approximately "fifty to sixty" percent in the next fiscal year, citing the "volatile financial situation of Scalvia following the war, and its volatile political situation that makes contracts volatile and sunk costs inevitable". Many business owners, co-operatives and civic banks have made similar statements in recent weeks and months, with the second-largest bank in Esthursia - Boroughers' Housing Society of Norwall (BHSN) - stating it would be "considering totally scrapping investment in Scalvia following the heightened risk felt with trade there in recent months." Westcott stated that his trade with Scalvia had already fallen "markedly" in 2022 and 2023, citing the economic damage caused by the Aurorean War.

Chancellor Edelard Burnside told Channel 2 News that he still "hoped" to get the money delivered for Scalvia's investment, but that it "entirely depended on new fiscal circumstances," and said it was "too early" to estimate how much money would be given, if any.

The commuter status will also be phased out between now and 30 Evarren (31 March), meaning that visas will be required to cross the border for work and commuters will no longer be eligible for UHCS services without applying specifically and paying yearly. Scalvian airlines will also be charged the Loftwayfarer's Duty, which averages ʃ6 per passenger, after previously retaining the exempt status following the common relationship between the two countries in the AN.

Tariffs would also be placed on exported agricultural goods amounting to an average of 19%, and automotive goods amounting to 39% on average. The government has stated its intention to spend much of this money on the foreign aid budget, which it expects to grow substantially in the next fiscal year, though it said this was dependent on the "ability for these tariffs to cover losses incurred by recent events."

The Government once again reiterated the need for Scalvia to open diplomatic channels and de-escalate the situation with Sorovia, with Reeve for the Ellands Alfred Frome suggesting that the Scalvians and Sorovians should meet to solve issues before they escalate out of control in recent days, but similarly commenting that "Esthursia would not allow Scalvia to tax Esthursian citizens for its opinions."

The Moderates' leader, Jowan Perran, declined to comment beyond that he "did not oppose" the measures, while the EPP released a statement heralding the "end of the foreign aid complex in Weskerby."

The Esthursian government has stated that the sanctions from Scalvia to Sorovia are also "entirely redundant in purpose", citing the free trade both countries enjoy with Tardine, with Channel 2 News referring to it as a "velvet wall," and Forethane Osborne joking on ENBC News that "Tamm's Velvet Wall made lawyers like me have to do some more paperwork to have two contracts instead of one," and referring to the sanctions as "solely useful for bureaucrats in Scalvia."

Vieremä Group: 2024 sees V4 root itself deeper, wider and stronger

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"The growing alliance between our four nations will bring a prosperous future for all within it," Osborne told CEOs at the Brough of Weskerby

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The Brough of Weskerby (right) is possibly the foremost financial hub in the Aurorias, with a GRP of 153bn IBU

The Vieremä Group entered 2024 as one of Auroria's surviving alliances, following the fiery demise of the Union of Aurorian States (UAS), and has increasingly formed closer and more intricate ties between its four member states.

Amongst the developments in recent weeks and months, the V4 are planning on, or have already begun:

Investment Bank of Auroria

The Vieremä Group nations have agreed to form an investment bank, based in the financial capital of Esthursia - the Brough of Weskerby - in order to "centralise, co-ordinate and effectively fund and distribute investment", Chancellor Edelard Burnside told the Esthursian Financial Group (EFG) at a meeting last week that the IBA marked a "significant step for Auroria's economy", as its nations look towards common interests and prosperity.

The news comes as business confidence rises in V4 nations, mainly caused by stronger than expected wage and output data for Q4 2023 being leaked on 12 February in Esthursia - abruptly ending a spate of below-expectation data in 2023 - the robust recovery of Tardine as a "gateway" between V4 and much of Auroria from its Danfeh era and civil war, and slowly improving Aurorian stability. Esthursia is expected to report its economic data by 22 February, with many expecting it to experience a "mini-boom" between 2023 and 2027, leaving its growth at rates last seen in the early-to-mid 2000s, while Tardine is expected to return as one of the world's foremost regional economies in the coming months and years.

HESOTA

(right) the logo of HESOTA, representing the four member nations of the security pact

V4 mutual defence and security agreements have rooted deeper in 2024, seeing the formation of HESOTA, whose objectives as stated were:

• submarine technology and deployment coordination
• cyberwarfare and cyberdefence, as well as AI technology and autonomy
• quantum technology
• "a degree of information and innovation sharing"
• hypersonic and counter-hypersonic technology
• undersea capabilities
• "maintaining regional peace in the interests of its members and the wider region"
• "specific military production packages", such as a project for Esthursia to export new tracked APCs to Hexastalia in the coming few years

ACORN and the Great Mote Striker

The Aurorian Council for Oversight of Researching the Nucleus (ACORN) has been formed between the V4, with a project to build a particle collider by 2032 in the west of Osynstry, with scientific facilities in Valwood (north of the city of Execester on the west coast) set to be expanded and specialised, while co-operation from the Lorestead of Witship Execester (LWE), Lorestead of Davensport and Lorestead of the West of Osynstry (LWO) is set to give an additional budget and research funding, with co-operation from the Compass scientific funding and coordination programme, and from the Esthursian government.

The government had been planning to build a particle collider for some years, and is set to cost approximately 4 billion IBU, with a further ~1 billion IBU per operating year for upkeep and power. Known as the Great Mote Striker, or GMS, the project will, if successful, collide particles at close to the speed of light and pioneer studies into physics at the smallest scale. David Hubert Ewans, the Esthursian Reeve for Further Education, Research and Development, claimed that the project "would put Auroria on the map for centuries to come".

The space programme

Esthursia's moon programme, known as the Arianad project, has been ongoing since about 2020 at the latest - with a goal already set for men on the moon by 2032 - however with the growth of the V4 bond, the combined programme will likely see a more comprehensive, and faster, moon mission take place.

Tardine's technological production sector - from a nation who were the first of the Aurorias to land on the Moon - and the Sorovian and Hexastalian innovation and research departments, as well as the combined funding of the four countries and Esthursia's burgeoning space programme having built itself up over the last decade, are likely to make a formidable space agency. Known as the Aurorian Space Agency, ASA is planning to set off by 2030 for a manned mission to the Moon, after exhaustive negotiations and a "strong desire for endeavour into the cosmos", stated the Esthursian government. It is likely to see astronauts and technology from all four nations involved.

In other news

• Vatnyrkja: Hydroelectric power capacity set to triple from 2017 to 2027 as Helmark, Norwall energy costs fall
• Norwall's Rune Holway demands Esthursia sever Aurorean reconstruction funds "due to hostile, unreliable Scalvia and Volshan"
• South Downs' wapentakes call on government to declare national emergency over gun smuggling
• The King appears in public for first time since late January to honour Cordanian war veterans
• Cordane: Solidarity and Ynogh! agree to anti-immigration coalition government, ending Vander's tenure
• Obesity rate "failing to divert from global rising norm" in Esthursia, warns EMA study
• Esthursian economy grew 4.6% to 7 trillion IBU in 2023, says INS, as population rises to near 134.5 million
• Environmentalists criticise "hypocritical" plan to end natural gas use in Esthursia while increasing exports

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Eighties, Seventies - the 2980s and 2970s, equivalent to the Gregorian decades of 2025-2034 and 2015-2024

Harold Osborne announces intention to stand down before next election

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"It is close to time for someone new to take the reins," Osborne told ENBC News, as his deputy Jeremy Wilson immediately hinted towards his candidacy

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Harold Osborne rose to the forefront of politics in the late 2000s, when his role as the Social Democrats' spokesman for working rights landed him square in the middle of the industrial dispute between the Einarsson government and the trade union body, the Anning of Annings (AoA). His role in the resurgence of the centre-left into the mainstream of Esthursian politics is undisputed, and he maintained his role into the Largan government that was elected by a landslide in January 2011, following the breakdown of the short-lived second Einarsson ministry.

The 2014 election saw the Largan government dealt a near-fatal blow, and despite initial intentions by John Largan to serve out his government, the Social Democrats - whose membership and new representatives were further left than Largan and blamed Largan's "fiscal reluctance" for lost votes - ended up electing Harold Osborne as their leader in January of 2015. Osborne had stood as the unity candidate between the centre and the left, and announced a "return to social democracy" as espoused by the likes of Martha Grantham and James Seddon in the latter half of the previous century.

Osborne's government has since drifted far closer to the left, while it has met domestic crises - such as the 2017 budget, in which then-Chancellor Wilson was ceremoniously sacked by the Government, as well as the terror attack in Ezhonyth in 2021 and far-right protests in the late 2010s - as well as international crises; the latter of which have been dubbed the "Aurorian Crisis", with major countries falling into war, disaster and recession all around the continent. Osborne has commented that his tenure has seen "the Aurorias torn to pieces in every sense of the term." Despite this turmoil, the Social Democrats remained relatively dominant throughout his tenure.

The next election is due in the second week of April 2026, by which point Osborne has said he would be "within touching distance of sixty," the age at which James Seddon "upped sticks and left office." His approval ratings have also steadily slid from an average of +11 in 2022 to dead-on neutral in 2024, and although they have since stabilised, commentators have hinted that this may have been weighing on the Forethane's mind for some time.

The announcement came on Channel 2 without warning, when he told journalist Anja Vestlund:

The steps forward

There are a number of likely candidates, however one has stood out for quite some time - the left-populist Jeremy Wilson. Known for his socialist and populist rhetoric and short term as the Chancellor of the Landsfere, Wilson has been in mainstream politics ever since his 20s. At the age of 38, he is one of the youngest forefront politicians in the Social Democrats, and his leadership of the Progressive Group in the 2010s saw him centralise support of the hard-left flank of Esthursian politics - bar Green-Left - behind him for quite some time. He formed the 1926 Group in January, whose website cite their "grounding in the victory of the 1926 socialist generation and their principles, and our striving aim for Esthursia to assert itself on the international stage without interference, while prioritising the ninety-nine percent and long-term, left-wing policies," and he has long been deemed as the membership's favoured candidate to follow Osborne. He has been more recently known for his advocacy for the Leave vote in the 2023 UAS referendum, and in favour of intervention in Iolanta, as well as his perceived gaffe over his vocal opposition to a Prydanian law restricting republicanism in politics. He told the 1926 Group:
Other likely candidates include the centrist Oscar Connery, who commented that this "marked an opportunity to reshape the centre-left for the future," while a number of other names - with a wide range including Cara Sterling, Hálvdan Højgaard, Sian Holt, Sigrid Beck, Aled Cadogan, Megan Corre, Ægen Tolkin, Willard Hægen, Alfred Frome and Carl Goodwin all named as potential candidates - being thrown in the air by various commentators, party officials and "anonymous" sources. Wilson is favoured by nearly forty-percent of members as a candidate according to a poll by EsthurElects, with Højgaard, Connery, Sterling and Frome all a distant joint-second on five-percent a piece.

The contest is unlikely to start for months, if not over a year, with the election two years away; and yet in many ways, the starting pistol has already been fired. The race has begun, and one man has a clear lead to play with.

The Forward March: Army 2035 to see Esthursian defence budget reach 235bn IBU in decade

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"These are exceptional and concerning times," the Reeve for Defence told Berworth, as plan reaches Berworth a month later than expected

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Esthursia's military white paper for the ten years following New Year's 2980 (or 2025, for the global reader) has finally arrived, and hawks who had originally expected the paper to be business as usual knew that the first shot fired in Iolanta would throw that up in the air; some have said that every hour it was delayed from the end of February by reduced the possibility of it being business as usual by a hundredth, and then they reached zero weeks before today.

Nevertheless, a few surprises lay waiting in the budget; a fourth aircraft carrier, which looks set to become a flagship as to the Rickard XII but with the King's name, was confirmed in 2019 but is expected to be commissioned six months earlier than previously projected, at the end of 2024. The military budget, rather than either rising suddenly or staying at a consistent level, is set to rise steadily for the next ten years from 2.32% in 2024 to approximately 2.52% in 2034, consolidating - and extending - the new norm of above-2% spending for the generation to come.

Findings
The government also commonly adds several pointers to its paper as a way of "helping to navigate through the decade's geopolitical meres," however the Forward March has included a significant number more than usual.

A number of these - including one referring to Auroria as "a truly multipolar continent of four roughly comparable powers for the first time" and another concerning the security of trade routes amid the Velvet Wall issue - were important, however one in particular has been tied to the Government decision to raise military spending into the 2980s, as follows:
The political situation of Auroria declined markedly in the latter half of the decade, after 2976 (2021) in particular, and a recovery looks all but slow if extant at all. This report thus recommends a more active position for the Esthursian defence forces in the Aurorias.

A few other points in the document stated the importance of the Esthursian nuclear deterrent - whose cap may rise again as forecasts see the nuclear deterrent reaching it by 2026 - and also the "extended role for Esthursia in safeguarding its own affairs as well as the interests of its geopolitical allies," while Osborne made a brief speech talking of a "forward march for the new norm in Esthursia" and a hint that Esthursia's domestic defence industry would see a substantial boost in subsidies, raising fears of a protectionist defence industry arising in coming years, especially as contenders for the leadership in coming months look likely to exaggerate the Osborne administration's hesitation to cooperate fully with the world community on national security issues and its self-recognised "disillusionment with an unfortunately high amount of international bodies."

The report will make its way alongside the white paper through the Houses of Berworth in the coming weeks ahead of the next recess, and the Army 2990 (2035) plans are likely to see the light of day in the Budget this autumn. Until then, much of what is being proposed is nothing more than words and gestures - but they are important words and gestures nonetheless.

This story is ongoing, as the Army 2990: The Forward March plans reach the legislature and the Crown in various stages and are likely amended in some form by the end of the year when the existing army framework expires.

POLL2979: Zooming in on the regions that matter this month

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As the regions and cities go to the polls, a number of shifts are shaping up

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The Eight Ridings go to the polls this week, while the Boroughs follow suit the next week
Esthursians are used to regular elections, and the round of 2979 polls are set to see every single over-15 eligible to vote on the mainland at least twice, as every wapentake and nearly every riding goes to the polls.

This year's polls, as a result, are relatively unusual. The local and most regional elections coincide every four years, but with some riding polls taking place every three years, this is the first time since 2967 (2012) that all mainland voters could vote twice. Similarly, this marks a coming of age of many voters - those born at the back end of 2963 and start of 2964 can vote in their first elections now, and a large number of teens will be voting in their first regional poll this month. Cordaners have voted last autumn, and thus will not be voting twice this round.

However, it is not just the coincidental timing that separates 2979 from the other years; it's also a matter of political shifts. Rune Holway is preparing to set a record for the longest-serving First Minister, while the HNU and UE are clinging onto their positions amid falling polling both to the Social Democrats and other nationalist or sovereigntist parties.
Osynstry's Catrin Brock has narrowly eeked a lead ahead of the Moderates, as has the Social Democrats' choice for the Weskerby aldermanry, Edmure Waugh, but both look far less assured now than they did four years ago. The Social Democrats will be looking for victories to reassert their generation of political dominance, but with little left to gain and lots to lose, and a new leader of the Moderates seeking a round of gains to kick his campaign off as we pass the two-year mark to election season, the stakes remain high. The local elections may be particularly challenging for the Social Democrats, as the last few years have seen a great deal of division on the right and centre.

The ridings
Osynstry
Catrin Brock [SD] / 36%
Carl Turner [M] / 32%
Ermen Ward [EPP] / 14%
Rocger Russel [G-L] / 9%
Willard Hall [L] / 8%
Sommer Hargrove [Æ] / 6%
Other / 2%

The re-election of Catrin Brock is uncertain, but her reselection battle has proven challenging enough. Brock is a moderate within an increasingly leftwing party, and securing enough support to continue her campaign has been an upward struggle, while semi-open fighting between Brock and what she perceives as an indifferent SocDem leadership has damaged her polling in a way that has opened a possible door for the Moderates to win Osynstry even if they perform poorly elsewhere.

Despite this, the Moderates have hardly been scandal free down in Osynstry either. Carl Turner is a prominent ex-Conservative, and identifies as right-wing, which has put him at odds too with his own party's firmly liberal leadership. The Liberal Party's endorsement of Catrin Brock for second round votes, and increasing anger from the Turner camp at the lack of attention given to a very winnable campaign in Osynstry, has dimmed what could have otherwise been a very bright situation for the Moderates.

This has led to a larger than expected polling figure for the third parties. The EPP are a clear third place, and have been since their second-place result in the Midlands by-election, but the emergence of the Ash Party - or Æshgaþring in Atlish, a clear nod to the existing ASH secular organisation - as a left-populist anti-immigration and staunchly secular party has seen pollsters puzzled, and asking exactly if there is a place for an "EPP on the left" in the long-term. The rise of Æ has also worried the Brock camp, as many young leftwing voters, especially students, look likely to protest vote for the 26-year-old Sommer Hargrove. Hargrove has advocated for free public transport for all under-30s and students, an immediate referendum "coordinated with other ridings" on the "monarchy issue," and a move away from mass migration from "areas with people whose cultures and beliefs clash with Esthursian key rights."

Brock looks likely to take the riding, but certainly not definite.

ENBC PROJECTS: Brock's odds are over 50:50, but Turner is a stronger challenger than 2020's Darton, and an outside result is not entirely unforeseeable. The Osynstric legislature looks likely to be held by the left, but coalition building will be necessary.

Norwall
Rune Holway [SD] / 56%
Estrid Wiþren [Ind - M & L backed] / 26%
Alfred Evrett [EPP] / 8%
Willard Kaster [G-L] / 6%
Other / 4%

Rune Holway looks all but likely to seize another term in Norwall, and has been endorsed by the Æshgaþring for his stances on migration and youth politics, despite his age of over 70. Holway is known nationally for his brash attitude and populist streak, which has earnt him the moniker of "Our Rune" in the north and derision by liberals as a "conservative leftist" - Holway strongly refutes this label, identifying as a "Norwaller socialist."

Not much else has occurred in the Norwall electoral run-up. The Moderates and Liberals have backed Estrid Wiþred, a strongly internationalist candidate, but it seems unlikely to make much headway against Holway in such a red region as Norwall, who last voted for a conservative party in a general election in 1982. The Norwaller Moot is very likely to be held by the Social Democrats come the poll results, with the incumbents polling at nearly sixty percent.

ENBC PROJECTS: Rune Holway looks very secure in his electoral chances here as his party is set to secure another term. Norwall will probably see a Social Democratic legislative supermajority yet again, but never say never.

Helmark
Iðunn Þórsenn [HNU] / 26%
Konráð Lukassen [SD] / 24%
Guðrún Mørkin [M] / 18%
Jóhann Berg Jónsson [Ø] / 10%
Jens Fjalarsmann [EPP] / 7%
Ewen Isling [Æ] / 6%
Ingrid Guðmundsdóttir [G-L] / 5%
Sigtið Hveiti [L] / 4%

Helmark looks to be a messy election this year, even if party unity is looking strangely optimistic this round. The Alternative - Ø, Ødrvísi - have taken a large chunk of the right-leaning nationalist vote from both the Moderates and the HNU, while the Social Democrats are extremely close to being the most voted Helmarker party for the first time since the 1990s as a result. The HNU's existing coalition and deal with the Green-Left and Ødrvísi is messy as is, and the coalition negotiations between the Social Democrats or the HNU and either one another or the smaller parties are likely to become a minefield if the result pans out anything similar to the polls suggest.

Þórsenn herself is relatively popular, but her party lags as the Social Democrats' leftward shift and the forestalling of the independence mandate has sapped the HNU of momentum, while the rise of Ødrvísi and unwillingness of moderate or unionist leftists to back the HNU over anti-independence alternatives have depleted its electoral coalition, which was always a broadchurch. The HNU had hoped the campaign could reinvigorate the cause, but if anything, a slight reduction in the HNU's prospects has resulted from a pro-independence tack.

ENBC PROJECTS: It's impossible to tell who will be the Ástjørn in coming months, and even harder to say who will be in government. The scale of the disunity of long-term HNU voters will be the key here; the HNU will be hoping that it is overestimated at the moment, while the other parties will be willing its splintering to cleave off a larger share.

Merthing
Arzhen Hammett [G-L] / 30%
Llyn Gotwin [CL] / 23%
Cerys Llangollen [SD] / 22%
Willard Ostrick [M] / 11%
Ricky Wyllie [EPP] / 8%
Beorn Hwarfe [Æ] / 6%

Merthing in national and regional elections acts very different. In national polls, it swings to the moderate right and liberals, while its regional liking for the Green-Left party has ended in Hammett forming government last election.

Merthinger politics are often quiet and cordial compared to most of the country. Some of this is Merthinger politeness masking underhanded remarks - such as Hammett calling Llangollen "seemingly reasonable," and Llangollen replying that Hammett was "seemingly observant," - but much of this is due to the relative quietness of Merthinger politicians, and the removed nature of Merthing from an otherwise cutthroat political scene.

Note that the Liberals officially back the Consence Liberal Party in the Consewent region, which includes the western Cumbrish ridings of Helvellyn, Ezhonyth and Merthing (the HEM of Esthursia.)

ENBC PROJECTS: Hammett looks likely to continue his coalition of the left into a second term, but renegotiation or slight shifts could change this composition.

Ezhonyth
Maëlys Seznec [CL] / 41%
Jannic Calvez [M] / 18%
Haerviu Grallys [SD] / 16%
Pierrick Tanguy [G-L] / 12%
Lukaz Pitchon [SBE] / 5%
Reuben Wall [Æ] / 4%
Rickard Esson [EPP] / 4%


Ezhonyth has, like its Consewent neighbours, had a liberal streak that has outlived its Gotic counterparts. Yet, like Merthing, nationally the region has become more two-party and a little less liberal and yet regionally had not.

Seznec is a social liberal and identifies strongly as Ezhoneg, but is a "pragmatic unionist" in a way that many - if not a majority - of Ezhoneg residents resonate with. Her personal and deeply localised tenure, seeking to prevent a "deluge of second home ownership from driving natives out," as well as being open to investment while attempting to close the development gap between the region and the rest of the country - with Ezhoneg education, healthcare, transportation and wellbeing all lagging behind - and boost tourism all have given Seznec the reputation of a successful, honest yet clear politician.

The result of these successes has been the rise in the Consence Liberal polling into the 40s, and the stagnation of the Strollad Broadel Ezhoneg (SBE), a big tent pro-independence single issue party. The Moderates look keen to reassert the centre-right's position in the riding, but the Social Democrats have gradually closed the deficit in the polls, while Grallys is more recognisable as a former Largan-era reeve (cabinet minister).

ENBC PROJECTS: Seznec looks not only secure, but likely to make significant gains. The Moderates' chances to become the largest national party in the riding are good, but declining.

Helvellyn
Aled Merryn [M] / 33%
Rodrick Abergenny [SD] / 25%
Theobald Bevan [CL] / 18%
Siân Morgan [G-L] / 14%
Erick Glenrid [EPP] / 8%
Ingvar Hroþgarsson [Æ] / 4%

Merryn has been the Conservative and now Moderate FM of Helvellyn for eight years, and is seeking a third term, however this will likely see him forced to enter a coalition far more varied than his current one with the Consence Liberals, who barely scraped into the assembly in 2020.

The liberal-conservative voter coalition has somewhat fragmented; some have gone to the Liberals, some have gone to the Green-Left coalition and some have gone to the EPP. The Social Democrats, despite some loss to the Æshgaþring, have consolidated their position, but seem unlikely to form government due to the right-liberal nature of Helvellyn liberals.

ENBC PROJECTS: Aled Merryn looks very likely to form the next government, but may haemorrhage some support and be reliant on the Consence Liberals not switching their allegiance leftward like their Merthinger and Ezhoneg counterparts.

Ereway Islands
Broose MacVarkysh [UE] / 26%
Aulay Corrin [SD] / 20%
Isott Kneen [CL] / 15%
Lonan Teare [M] / 11%
Tormod Shimmin [ES] / 10%
Calbrid Faragher [G-L] / 8%
Margrid Kewish [DH] / 6%
Malane Kneale [Æ] / 4%

The UE has gradually become the largest party in Erewayer elections, however the Ereways have always been a region with a great variation of parties. MacVarkysh is relatively new, after the resignation of Ricky Cain in 2022, however has become one of the most popular politicians since then, and gained a reputation for standing up for Ellansh culture while boosting the economy - the Ereways has long had a development issue compared to the mainland, while its heritage is hard to reconcile with urbanisation reforms.

The results of the next election look not dissimilar to the previous, but the UE steadily losing out to a rising Social Democratic party and the establishment of the right-sovereigntist DH may make coalition building a little more tentative.

ENBC PROJECTS: MacVarkysh looks likely to stay in power, but her coalition may need to broaden or compromise more if results look anything like the current polls.

The borough alderman elections will be held the following week.

Forethane holds press conference as Social Democrats win Helmark, amid foreign policy announcements

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Osborne appeared to confirm rumours of a military-adjacent "Crystal Sea Agreement" with Rayvostoka and a postponing of the Aurasian fiscal package

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Harold Osborne (right) held a conference in the aftermath of his party's upset victory in Helmark

The Forethane has entered 2024 expecting a rough ride, however an upset in Helmark - and safe results in Helmark and Norwall, despite Rune Holway unexpectedly losing a significant share of the youth vote to Green-Left - left the largest Three Ridings all under Social Democratic control. This marked the first time since 2012 - and second time in over a generation - that a single party had controlled all three, and has forced the resignation of the HNU's leader Ithunn Thorsenn, who served as Astjórn of Helmark from 2016. The results weren't spectacular - in fact in both Osynstry and Norwall, the Social Democrats fell back somewhat - but the milestone being reached will give Osborne even more claim over the idea that he has united the left behind one party for the first time since the Grantham administration reached power in 1990.

The press conference, however, comes as rumours of Esthursia's foreign policy developments have become increasingly pervasive, particularly on the topics of the Iolantan conflict, Aurasian reconstruction and Rayvostokan relations.

Transcript
"Will the results of the recent elections worry or please you, and will it have any effect on your intention to resign ahead of the 2026 election?"
"To get the last half of the question out of the way immediately, these stellar results do not change my belief that it is time for a handover to the next generation of politicians. I am a man in my late-fifties, after all, and my predecessor and dear late friend James Seddon resigned in 1980 at the age of fifty-nine. 2026 is the right time, I sincerely believe. Now, as for the recent results, I am immensely proud in every one of my party's candidates and in our collective achievement. The Moderates talked and did not deliver, and their new leader - who I, of course, respect and will continue to work with - has had to learn the hard way that Esthursia will not forgive the blunders and open divisions of the Conservative Union and the far more recent divisive, xenophobic stances made by the outgoing Rosemary Manning. This is a record-breaking election in which Helmark has elected a Social Democratic Astjórn for the first time since before I came into power, and both Catrin Brock and Rune Holway have been returned with a resounding verdict, while our performance from the Ereways to Helvellyn have shown great strides."
"What do you make of rumours that Jeremy Wilson is orchestrating a takeover of the party?"
"I won't be substantiating rumours. Jeremy Wilson is a valued colleague and is working hard for the benefit of the party and the country, and its working people."
"Esthursia's place in the Iolantan conflict is irremovable and undeniable - do you support the war or oppose it?"
"The Esthursian position was made clear on day one. The main goal here is to deliver a settlement that ends in a lasting peace, a peace that is desired by the local populace, and the more recent geopolitical tension is an unfortunate result of the failures of much of the international community to fully address Iolantan human rights violations with the severity it deserved until far, far too late. Esthursia will work with all of its geopolitical partners and co-operate with the Association of Nations in order to deliver a peace that is approved by all parties. We of course reaffirm our commitment to HESOTA, and will remain in close contact with the Sorovian government on this issue. Iolanta was at war with its ethnic Sorovian presence for decades, and in recent months has undergone a severe destabilisation and autocratisation; only a true peace whereby no Iolantan is subject to state-sponsored discrimination or conflict is one that Esthursia will support in the long-term."
"There are rumours that Esthursian soldiers are involved directly in the War in Iolanta. Are these rumours in any way true?"
"As I've said earlier, I will not be giving breath to rumours. The Esthursian peacekeeping force in Sorovia remains active in its duties, and issues of national and international security remain in confidence. Esthursia, of course, has a naval presence in the region of South-East Ethia at this time, with its carrier taskforce, and will continue to maintain its positive presence in the region until such a time as it is no longer deemed necessary."
"The Chancellor, Edelard Burnside, has spoken publicly of what he calls the Aurasian question, and that Esthursian funding to Aurasia is becoming increasingly untenable. Is the phasing out of Aurasian reconstruction funding now government policy, or merely under consideration?"
"Edelard is right to say that the Esthursian lending commitment to Aurasia made in the immediate aftermath of the war in South Ethia, which totalled approximately 3 billion shillings between 2022 and 2023, is less palatable in the light of both existing honoured commitments and the geopolitical situation in Ethia at this time. It is not the duty of the Esthursian taxpayer to subsidise foreign nations, as much as it is the duty of the Esthursian government to provide for less well-off, disadvantaged and war-torn regions of this continent and worldwide in both a financial and diplomatic context; furthermore, my Government must make it clear that it believes there should have been made a place for the AN, or the Aurorian community, in the peace process in Aurasia. We remain convinced that the security situation in Aurasia is largely under control at present, however this is not sufficient enough to justify the prolonging of this aid in the absence of a long-term, transparent, multilateral plan for the future of Aurasia."
"There have also been rumours that there is a so-called Crystal Sea Agreement being formalised between Rayvostoka and Esthursia in coming days and weeks. Are these rumours substantiated?"
"Esthursia has observed the democratisation process in Rayvostoka for quite some time now, and it has made serious, positive and permanent steps towards a council democracy, most notably in the form of multi-party elections and a councilist structure of legislative passage. The Rayvostokans have been transparent and cordial, and our observers have been given free rein as necessary to ensure that the wrongs of the past are not being continued, but more importantly, to co-operate in order to ensure the flourishing partnership between the Esthursians and the Rayvostokans is assured and secure. With the national security, self-determination and sovereignty of the Rayvostokan state of paramount importance, especially in the wake of this secure progress, it is also true that the Esthursian government will be entering a military agreement with our partners in Lebedevgrad in order to open new corridors of military trade, as well as co-operation and specific military deals in coming months and years. Existing agreements between our friends in Rayvostoka and Esthursia on economic and diplomatic issues will also be extended and built upon substantially in the wake of this positive, consistent and sincere effort of reformation and amity, and they are increasingly proving a reliable collaborator within the international community in the interests of human rights, democracy, true peace and equality."
"There have been some reservations over relationships with Rayvostoka put forward by some nations. What do you make of these reservations?"
"The Esthursian government remains convinced that the Rayvostokan democratisation process is sincere and permanent. Some of these less rational reservations also attempt to compromise the sovereignty of the Rayvostokan people, which will not be tolerated."
"Is the Cordanian high-speed railway project underway?"
"Yes. My colleagues in Anberry can confirm that the shovels are in the ground, and have been for weeks. The end date of 2028 is well within reach."
"What do you make of Rune Holway's recent policies and statements aimed at migrants in Norwall?"
"Holway has been elected by the people of Norwall repeatedly in order to conduct policy in the region on their behalf. Although I do not personally deem ethics tests or suchlike necessary, it is not in my purview to sanction them, and we share our common desire to ensure that the Esthursian core values of democracy, liberty, choice, freedom of expression, personal security, privacy, dignity and autonomy are preserved."
"The governments of Goyanes and Waltalriche, amongst a number of others, have formed the Economic Community of Gothis in the last days and weeks. What does the Esthursian government make of this development?"
"Esthursia has significant interest in the developments in the region. I hope that they remain positive, and believe that there will be a place for greater co-operation between the nations within the ECG as a bloc and Esthursian producers, consumers and the country as a whole in the months and years to come, in the spirit of commonality. I look forward to seeing the flourishing of a new economic bloc."
"How is the economic forecast looking for the next few years?"
"The Esthursian economy is on an upswing, and has been since at least the middle of the last decade, and is forecast to continue for quite some time. In the long-term, of course, growth is likely to return to more subdued and consistent levels, however we are certainly going through a boom at the moment, and it is being enabled - if not produced - by the sensible, productivity-led and secure policies of this Social Democratic government. We are incredibly close to surpassing the pre-Einarsson crash trend, and the average Esthursian is getting significantly better-off each year. More importantly, this growth has been felt most by those who need it most, and reinforced by the redistribution from those few who have copiously to the rest of us who do not."
"What will the next Helmarker government look like?"
"Although it would be wrong of me to comment on the upcoming policies of the coalition led by my colleague Konráð Lukassen, I am sure that Konráð will govern in the interests of every Helmarker, and end the divisive tenure that the Helmark Nationals have deliberately overseen. Helmark has voted for unity and for social democracy, and I trust Lukassen sincerely to deliver it."
"There has been discontent over the raising of the pension age to 69 by 2031. What do you say of remarks that it is stealing years of life and income from entire generations?"
"This government has overseen the extension of the average Esthur's life expectancy from eighty to eighty-five in the span of thirteen years. This, coupled with the above-average but below-replacement birth rates we see in Esthursia today, means that - despite rising migration from the region - we, as every developed nation, are going to face a prolonged period whereby the elderly population will make up a heavier cohort of the general populace; however, as the nation's positive progress on health means that its biological aging will be significantly slower than its chronological aging, this does not amount to a crisis. With the one-hundred and thirty-four and a half million Esthurs in our nation today healthier and work less strenuous now than the country was fifteen years ago, it is only right that this progress in health and prolonging life is reflected at least partially in the retirement age. The length of retirement spent by Esthurs in the 2030s will still be greater than it was before the start of this administration, and likewise we have taken significant strides in ensuring the life within working ages of working Esthurs is more balanced."
"What is your opinion of the first three months of the AN? Is it another UAS, or is it going to be a permanent feature of global politics?"
"The UAS was a flawed institution from the outset, and rendered itself redundant. The AN, within three months, has become a respected institution of democracies across the world settling their differences with diplomacy rather than with war, as well as a reputable organisation able to be tasked with oversight of the most perilous of situations in an impartial way that is removed from the political fray. I would love for the Association of Nations to become a permanent feature of global politics - the good city of Fjármagn would too, I am sure."
"What of the V4, as it approaches its first year?"
"The Vieremä Group has brought together the four nations of Esthursia, Sorovia, Hexastalia and Tardine in a historical way. Our political community has ensured the budding of new alliances, co-operation, scientific endeavour and cultural exchange in a way that has never existed before for our nations, and I am sure that it will continue to reinforce itself as a global benchmark for an alliance of healthy democracies working in a positive common interest for the good of their people. We will shoot for the Moon by the end of the decade, after all!"

INTERVIEW: New Esthursian Reeve for the Ellands says government will be "more proactive on civil rights"

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As Frome resigns "to prioritise his family," Eda Merrell holds an interview with ENBC

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Background

Eda Merrell (right) has become Esthursia's first LGBTQ+ foreign minister following Osborne's minor reshuffle last week

Eda Merrell is the Social Democrats' first new foreign minister in seven years, and only the third in over thirteen years, following Alfred Frome's public statement that his wife was expecting a child and resignation. Forethane Harold Osborne told ENBC News this morning that Merrell had indeed taken his place officially following a minor reshuffle that saw Tollack Eames fill the new Reeve for Peace and Diplomacy role, and Roose Dungate become the Reeve for Green Energy and Water following David Neswick's cancer diagnosis.

Interview
Willard Hebbelþwæt: Eda Merrell, the Government's new Reeve for the Ellands, is here with me this morning. Hello, Eda.
Eda Merrell: Thank you, Will.
WH: Well, good morning. You used to be the government's Minister for Mental Health. How are your two previous roles compatible, considering this considerable promotion you have been given this week?
EM: I understand the question, however prior to my service as Minister for Mental Health, I served in various ministerial positions within the Redery for the Ellands. In fact, out of the nine years of my time in Berworth, six of them have been spent in the Ellands redery. The Forethane saw it fit that I have the years, so who am I to challenge his judgement?
WH: Quite. Now, as you are of course aware, Esthursia has had a whirlwind of a decade in terms of foreign policy, but in particular recently, the war in Iolanta has raised the attention of much of the world. What do you make of it?
EM: I make that Iolanta is complicit in apartheid against a majority of its people, simple and true. The intervention in Iolanta, as much as we will restrain our involvement to what is proportionate and prevent the loss of life wherever possible, is urgent. The steps to tyranny are clear, and the Iolantan regime has spent the last year tumbling down them headfirst, so we cannot simply stand back and watch as millions of people are subjected to dehumanising, second-class treatment by a state who has open and unconcealed disdain for their existence. Iolanta was at war with Sorovians long before Sorovia began the intervention in January, I want to make that crystal clear.
WH: What do you make of the argument that sanctions against regimes such as Iolanta are rash or otherwise the wrong decision? Is it valid?
EM: No.
WH: ... fair enough. The Moderates have called for the government to make its position on Iolantan intervention clearer. Do you have anything you wish to answer them on that front, Ms Merrell?
EM: That I do, Will. Esthursia will not shy away from intervening when it sees fit, and the sickening persecution of ethnic Sorovians in Iolanta is the very example. We have offered our hand in every democratic intervention, whether it be stationing a taskforce of seventy-thousand on the border with the Scalvians for their aid were they ever to request it during the final desperate attempt by the Barthist so-called regime to enforce its irredentism on an entire region, or our drone kits exported to the Volshan, or our peacekeeping taskforce in the Imperium, or our sure-footed intervention in Iolanta.
WH: What do you make of the argument that Esthursia stood back during the Aurasian War?
EM: I was in the defence ministry at the time, so I can field that one, as it happens. It would have constituted an invasion, if we were to go in without permission that the Scalvians had every right to withhold, and therefore the decision not to was not only right, but quite literally the only option. The recent accusations by the Scalvian government that Esthursia stood back are patently false, and we warmly invite them to retract the claims that staying out was a decision.
WH: Right. I come back to the matter of the Iolantan war. What do you make of the international discussion over the matter?
EM: The whole purpose of the Association of Nations was to form a band of the world's democracies to arbitrate over matters such as this one. I will of course change my stance if it comes to pass that no solution is produced, but as it stands, I trust in the Association to deliver a suitable peace that the Sorovians and HESOTA will be approving of. I remind the Esthursian public that this is a decision that is not to be made lightly, and that we will offer that open discussion for as long as feasibly possible, however that we will remain in Iolanta to continue our intervention until such a time where it is no longer necessary to prevent the abhorrent treatment of Iolantan people. The path to peace lies in negotiation and diplomacy, at the end of the day, and if the whole world is on the same path, it is more likely to be the righteous one.
WH: That's alright and all, but I have to come back to the point that you knew I was referring to - what if the AN, for whatever reason, decides in some way or another that the intervention needs to stop immediately and that the Iolantans should be returned sovereignty over the territory as occurred pre-war with no enforced reforms.
EM: I'm hopeful that we do not live in such a blind world as that.
WH: To move on to the next topic, I would like to touch on the recent vote by the Pan-Gotic Union. The union's members voted, and while only six members voted, Esthursia fell short of the two-thirds threshold to enter. What do you make of that verdict?
EM: We are of course disappointed in the decision, and it will be taken into account. The prospect of future ties and a future entry is never ruled out, and our door remains open, so to speak.
WH: The government of Severoszlavia, which many analysts have accused of being a far-right oligarchy masquerading as a socialist state, has had a degree of infighting over one of its ministers' declaration that the Andrennians withheld their vote over Esthursia's continued diplomatic relations with the state. Are the rumours true?
EM: I don't want to substantiate rumours. Esthursian foreign policy will always be to maintain diplomatic connections and while we are routinely considering retributive measures, we must ensure that they do not result in a counterproductive outcome for our interests in pushing for reforms in Severoszlavia. Our policy on that matter, and on many comparable matters, has been consistent.
WH: Your predecessor, Alfred Frome, was accused of being too acquiescent to meagre reforms.
EM: I see where you're going, yes. I will ensure progress is achieved in a timely manner, for the avoidance of any doubt on that matter.
WH: Coming back to Iolanta-
EM: Do we have to?
WH: Absolutely not. The recent Ten Rings attack on an Iraelian ambassador's flight to northern Esthursia can't have gone amiss either, so what is your view on combatting the threat posed by the organisation?
EM: Updates on that will be forthcoming.
WH: The Vierema Group has reached one year, and has since fostered a growing number of subsidiary or related organisations and pacts, such as Compass, HESOTA and even the project for a moon mission and a Grætmotestryker in the Valwoods. What do you make of its future?
EM: The partnership of Esthursia, Hexastalia, Sorovia and Tardine is one that I am sure will outlast us all, and will bring an era of mutual prosperity for our four nations in a way that we had never really anticipated until recently.
WH: With Rayvostoka's recent elections, over which Esthursia aided in observing, do you believe that Rayvostoka is becoming a reliable partner of the Esthursians?
EM: The Crystal Sea Agreement is as clear a sign of that as I can give, Will. We have more than enough confidence in the Rayvostokans in their democratisation, and we have seen absolutely nothing amiss whatsoever, the Rayvostokans have been open and transparent with us, a virtue seldom seen amongst some nations these days. They have also been steadfast against the Iolantan regime, and their opposition is healthy and independent. I have a great deal of hope for them, as it happens, and my predecessor's faith in them appears to have been rightful indeed. With luck, Esthursia and Rayvostoka may be embarking on a blooming diplomatic partnership, and I'm all for it.
WH: Do you have any positions that are personally distinct to you, rather than a continuation of government policy?
EM: As a woman, and a member of the LGBTQ+ community, I of course am different from my predecessor Alfred. Esthursia will be more proactive on civil rights in coming years, of that I am sure. I'm sure my stances will also change as the years pass, if I am privileged enough to reach that stage, but we will see when the time comes. And, of course, my friend Tollack Eames and his new role as Reeve for Peace and Diplomacy is sure to shake up things in a way that I have been pushing for quite some time!
WH: Thank you for speaking to me today, Ms Merrell.
EM: Well met, Willard. Goodbye.

Government unveils EMA-approved "Helping Hand" drug policy

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The Helping Hand law, which Osborne said was the clear alternative to "slamming an iron fist," has softened - but not removed - the penalties for recreational drug usage

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Background

Chair of the EMA Heather Coveney (right), who has criticised "government inaction" on drug policy in past years, praised the "long-awaited shift that will save so many lives"

Drug policy in Esthursia has been a relatively slow-moving beast. Although cannabis was decriminalised in 2006 in small quantities, and then legalised as a heavily-regulated industry in 2013, the seismic change in Esthursian politics in the last generation has more or less left drug policy alone. Harold Osborne's coalition governments with Green-Left have at various points promised drug policy reform at the behest of Green-Left's demands, however various coalition dynamics - particularly the reaction from Osborne against Green-Left following votes on nuclear power, nuclear armament and military spending - have repeatedly left drug policy dropped in the mud.

However, recent years have seen - in spite of most crime metrics showing a downward trend, especially violent crime - drug misuse and overdoses remain static, sparking alarm in the EMA and INS, who have called the stagnation the "Lost Decade on Drugs." The EMA's Chair, Heather Coveney, has met with Osborne and Reeve for Care Sian Holt no less than thirteen times in the last year, and is understood to have called for a policy akin to decriminalisation for at least that amount of time, with the EMA publishing reports and journal articles as early as 2001 calling for it to be "less heavy-handed" and exhibit "more of a humane approach to a human problem." Alcoholism, meanwhile, has failed to fall much in recent years even despite a rise in living standards and healthcare provision, while the EMA has called for it to be recognised "in full force as an addiction" for at least three decades - its rates have become more disparate and hit low-income workers in "less hopeful" areas harder, but this has only served to fuel the inequality of life between regions, where life expectancy has failed to reach 78 in Mellingtonshire despite approaching 89 in Thornlowshire a hundred kilometres north.

The Osborne government has in recent months tempted a change in policy in the news several times. One instance saw the government unveil a policy specifically named "the rehabilitation act," but which instead was aimed at a bolstering of the prison system's rehabilitation framework. A second instance, nicknamed "addictive drug policy reform" by a leaked government communiqué, has been deduced to refer to an increased belligerence against prescription drug misuse. Channel 2 journalist Alf Luddon noted to an audience in November:
The reform itself

The Helping Hand policy refers to the legislation that allows victims of drug addiction to be able to opt into therapy and drug rehabilitation facilities, to the extent that the justice system is expected to "rigorously encourage" the path, and reduces the sanctions to fines, community service or other specific retributive measures such as a ban on foreign travel, suspension from practice (e.g. as a doctor or teacher), or bans on frequenting specific venues in the event that the avenue to rehabilitation is rejected or not offered in rare cases.

The Helping Hand Deed, or simply "the Helping Hand", passed through the legislature relatively quickly, however its arrival in the Thanes was noisy and opposed heavily by the EPP and their counterparts in the Centre party, which brought it to national headlines. Willard Dagnall, the right-populist faction leader within the Moderates, spoke out against the legislation in the Thanes when it was proposed.
In the end, with two-thirds of the Moderates voting alongside the law, only twenty-two thanes would vote against it in the end, mostly split between the EPP and Moderates, joined by the Centre thane Eryk Alberforth. The leader of classical-liberal party ACT Bethan Culloden stated that her personal view was "staunch" against recreational drug use, however that she would not "see it fit to impose that view on the nation," leaving the usually cohesive right-bloc of the EPP and ACT divided on the vote, while Dagnall turned down an opportunity to speak on the law, following what is said to have been a deal for Jowan Perran to allow a free vote but for Dagnall's faction to hold their tongues following the law's likely passage.

Harold Osborne spoke of the "overwhelming" verdict following the law's passage.

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Also in the news:
- Esthursia's political parties are getting more numerous, but will they all survive infancy?
- Helmark rent control policy overturned following record rise in Fjármagn rental prices
- Maëlys Seznec: Ezhonyth has been left behind for too long
- Evenleother 2024 gives Merthing second win in ten years
- Tharbjorn Einarsson hospitalised for third time in six months

The King reigns on social media after bombshell gay rights speech at Herelafstead

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"Esthursians are girls who love girls, boys who love boys, and boys and girls who love each other - and all the better for it!"

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King Arthur (right) has been an outspoken advocate for the Esthursian nation, but this marks his first instance of open support for LGBTQ+ rights

Background

King Arthur VI's occasional dripfeed of political intervention has come steadily over the last seventy-seven years of his reign, culminating somewhat in his open opposition to the Arbjern regime, but his recent keynote speech at Herelafstead Hall has attracted wide attention from across Esthursia and social media platforms from 4UM to Twitcher and Puffinet.

Despite the knowledge of the King's anti-fascist stances, his other political beliefs have remained relatively hidden from public view.


The speech itself

The King surprised attendants who came to the Crown estate, of whom there were approximately five hundred, when he delivered an impassioned speech on diversity, what it means to be an Esthursian, and gay rights. Speaking first of the estate's history and then of the Crown's history, he moved onto his "neverending pride for the Esthursian nation and people", before touching on what he deemed an Esthursian person:
He went on to speak of his support for gay rights explicitly, adding:
He spoke of the diversity of landscape in Esthursia from the "rolling hills to snow-capped fjords and sun-kissed Fairways, and everything inbetween," and the diversity of music tastes - "this country has produced the likes of both Jógvan Elttør and Ironaxe" - and finished by stating that "Esthursia is diversity."

He finished his speech by encouraging "the culture of trust, kindness, acceptance and celebration of our common humanity to endure," stating:
Aftermath

Harold Osborne and Jowan Perran both welcomed the King's speech as "yet another reminder of how unique, liberal-minded and true our King truly is," while social media and public statements have seemed to point towards a similarly positive reception, with a spokesperson from the Primrose Fellowship for human rights protection "embracing" the statement and praised it for its "steadfast opposition to the steady rise of intolerance," and the Daily Herald referring to it as a "masterpiece in how moulded the Esthursian King is with the nation's sentiment and the times, in spite of his statesmanlike age." The near-universal approval of his statements reflects his wider popularity in the country - with approximately ninety-percent signalling positive views towards him in polling - as well as the widespread acceptance of LGBTQ+ rights in Esthursia, a country where self-ID has been policy for over a decade and same-sex marriage for a generation.
The statement is also likely to inflame tensions with his nephew Robert, who has already had his titles removed following his far-right conference with the now-defunct political group Heritage.