Who will win the Election of 2016?

I would pay nothing, because its sort of obvious. Cormac needed a reason to purge the defenders from Osiris. Tim gave him a reason because sanity isn't a strong point of anyone in that shitheap of a region.

Don't look at me, I'm just an ignorant bystander

From what little I currently know about the Osiris situation(please fill me in on exactly what's going over there so I know more of what you ask specifically), I kinda have to agree with St. George.

Based on the new laws and regulations Cormac's adopting, he's working on converting Osiris into his personal Autocracy, so he's purging all of his potential opponents(among which is the aforementioned Tim the Defender), and giving privileges to his supporters(who were mainly raiderists, imperialists, and independents from when I did my quiz there). Not unlike any new dictator would, Here's a RL example in Turkey. Cormac's ideology when I quizzed him is Oppositionist(if he goes extremist, he'll become a Hierarchist Anti-Libertarian Pro-Chaotist) Opportunist with a ambivalence to Imperialists.

Think of Cormac as if Groucho Marx became an overbearing ruler. Tim is some kind of Socialist I think, so their ideological dispute of Hierarchy vs Democracy. If Cormac doesn't reward his supporters enough privileges, they'll replace him, unless he has successfully converted Osiris into an Absolutist regime, in which opposition to him will be a greater risk than supporting him, which is what he's working towards. This can be achieved by following what the Pacific does with a low endorsement cap, and high number of individual endorsements of the Delegate(basically:"Endorse Cormac or get banned" policy). His supporters want to secure themselves against getting banned by what could be a chaotic whimsical dictator that will ban them for no good reason, so they will likely want a law that says "endorse Cormac and the oligarchs or else" and want laws that check against the delegate's power. So he'll have to compromise with his oligarchs to stay in power. Otherwise, he'll have to be really quick and profligate with the ban button and be really popular with the residents, or he'll get removed by alienated supporters who will install a figurehead they can control.

His closest potential "Ally", if any, I suspect will be Balder as they hold a similar political position.

I will likely do a more thorough Mathematical analysis of that situation this weekend(which means I will have to identify who's involved, what their positions are, their respective clout, and their investment in the situation at hand).

Check out this Handbook for Dictators if you want to know more on dictators on how they operate. Or use it for your own nefarious schemes.

If you want a short video rather than a book that summarizes dictatorial politics, here it is.

EDIT: Well it seems Osiris' official stance is Stabilitarian and is response to some radical defender group attacking their satellite regions.

I've read that book

To be honest I think Cormac is more of a center Oppositionist(which is why he can get along with Gradea, a centrist, and based on Gladio's quiz results, he could agree ideologically with him as well as Gladio got centrist Raider), and Independent on R/D, slight bias to Imperialists perhaps. The big thing about him is his extreme "Interests" mindset-What's Pragmatism taken to an extreme? I'd call it Opportunism, unless there's a better word for that position. Note that it's just "interests", not "regional interests"

From what I can tell about his recent decrees over the past month, he's doing sufficiently well at securing his oligarchs' support, and once securely entrenched, he's never going to be overthrown.

Nasania:

From what I can tell about his recent decrees over the past month, he's doing sufficiently well at securing his oligarchs' support, and once securely entrenched, he's never going to be overthrown.

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St George:

I would pay nothing, because its sort of obvious. Cormac needed a reason to purge the defenders from Osiris. Tim gave him a reason because sanity isn't a strong point of anyone in that shitheap of a region.

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Osiris needs a good cleansing. That region has been backed up for a while.

Well I decided to run a matrix scenario involving the top 27 major regions(based on a Population list on NS and as a result some powerful regions didn't appear on my list. There is of course also the fact that such numbers change, like Spiritus seems to have shot up recently in population. Some powerful regions that were not included because they didn't reach the population number of 500, are Equilism, LKE, and Albion). I may have to do some recalculations later, and rearrange who the major regions are in my charts(and refining the clout and salience boxes which could radically alter the outcome. Clout is who is most powerful, salience is who you want to win, basically Osiris might be a powerful region so high clout number, but you don't want them to win so they get low salience. Each person has their own personal clout and salience lists).

That said, my main focus with this initial experiment was to see how things turn out for the GCRs. Anyhow it seems In a hypothetical negotiation between this small sampling of nations, the regions of Europe, Europeia, and 10K Islands got the most out of the 'game'. The Biggest Losers were Nazi Europa and the Internationale, who were beaten by Penglai(a Puppet storage region).

Where did Osiris turn out? Osiris seems to have done pretty poorly compared to their fellow GCR's(it is slightly stronger than Iwaku) and appears to be isolated at 1337.7 and in a ranking of the top 15 winners gets 15th place(Balder managed to do pretty well and got 6th place at 2712.222). How could they improve their position? by shunning TNP, TSP, TRR, 10K Islands, the Communist Bloc, Europe, Nazi Europa, Renegade Islands Alliance, Equinox, NationStates, Western Isles, Spear Danes, and the Kingdom of Alexandria. Their best 'friends' would be TEP, TWP, the Pacific, Balder, Lazarus, Europeia, the Internationale, The Kingdom of Great Britain(KGB), Iwaku, and the Invaders.

As for the Internal Situation in Osiris(where I used the same formula to predict the TNP General election, out of the given players Cormac, Gradea, Koth, Ridersyl, Ikand, Dourian Embassy, Fedele, Neo the Heir Apparent, Tylope, Syberis, Adytus, Biyah, Sekhmet Legion, Pharaonic Guard, People, Transdavisia, Opposition), things were odd... First I considered Guardians each at 150, Cormac at 250, Raiders at 200, and the rest at 100 each. Then I took into account the activity levels, then did the multiplication and what resulted was that Adytus is the most powerful person in Osiris with 71% of the total power! Cormac at most only has 12%. Why and how is this possible? Adytus' activity level is 31.3 posts a day. while Cormac is only 4.2. The Guardians(excluding Adytus) collectively 7% of the total power, and maybe 6% being controlled by the military. Based on these numbers(which I'm having trouble believing), I would have to conclude that Cormac is a mere figurehead with Adytus being the real power behind Osiris. If I boosted the Military, Opposition and People clout scores to 500 each, then Adytus still has a majority of the power at 42%. It would seem that Cormac's position is dependent on Adytus' approval considering how powerful Adytus really is and even if he was opposed by everyone, Adytus would still be able to negotiate a compromise in which he becomes a rather powerful figurehead(Assume Adytus' position is 100, with everyone else being 0 then the average position score is 42.5). This suggests that Cormac can be removed relatively easily if Adytus decides to remove him(unless Cormac can somehow raise his activity level to match Adytus). Even if Cormac has 6.67x as much potential clout(and just a low activity level) as Adytus(which I highly doubt he has), he only just barely surpasses Adytus' power. Here's a pic of the spreadsheet and look at the N*a column(that's the power column). Certainly some more intel is needed on the Osiris internal situation, because the numbers suggest that Osiris is the Autocracy of Adytus. EDIT: It would seem that perhaps the reason for Adytus high post count is he plays a lot of spam and Forum games, he is the Chief of the Executive branch there though. Here's his political position and it seems he supports Cormac, so Cormac is unlikely to be removed from office in the near future. It's more likely that Adytus is low clout, but even so he has quite a bit of power because of his high activity level. If Adytus Clout is only 15 vs Cormac's 250, then his power is only 469 vs Cormac's 1050 and then Cormac has about 22% of the total power, The predicted outcome would be 75(Translation: Cormac remains as a Dictator. Even extreme opposition by everyone in the region, he would still remain in office as a figurehead at position 22.) This does show that his weakest trait is that he isn't near as active as he could be and a sufficiently powerful contender with an extremely high activity level could replace him.

Anyhow, back to the interregional game. The GCR that does the best is the Rejected Realms at 2840.1 and secures 5th place. TNP gets 12th pace and is beaten out by the Pacific. Now with some tinkering with TNP's position where it focuses on it's allies, and shuns obviously unfriendly regions, like Balder, their score shoots it up to 5th place displacing the Rejected Realms. It seems from his game that 10K Islands is TNP's strongest competitor and even if TNP were trying to improve its position by allying with Europeia and the Pacific, 10K islands still just barely wins out, still their position is strengthened if they choose to do so, so the recommendation for TNP would be to ally with the following regions:TEP, TSP, TWP, the Pacific, Lazarus, TRR, Europeia, the Communist Bloc, the Internationale, Iwaku, and Alexandria. Regions to NOT ally with as they reduce the winnings are: Balder, Osiris, 10K Islands, Europe, Nazi Europa, Renegade Islands Alliance, Equinox, The Kingdom of Great Britain(KGB), NationStates, the Western Isles, Spear Danes, and the Invaders.

Of course this assumes my inputs are accurate in the spreadsheet to begin with(which they may not have been-and of course LKE and Albion are not represented in this chart, though I strongly suspect they would be like Alexandria). I could try finishing my much larger spreadsheet which has 475 regions represented, but that would take awhile and most of those regions aren't that powerful or known so they would likely resemble Spear Danes in it's numbers on the current chart.

Here is the pic of the current situation, you read it from top to bottom, with the higher numbers indicating that TNP values that alliance more highly(obviously it values itself higher than its allies at 676, and Europeia getting 529), but it seems to consider TEP the friendliest GCR and Europeia the friendliest UCR, provided I did the ranking correctly. It seems to regard Nazi Europa and Osiris as not worth time or effort(and rightfully so as if they tried to go Nazi or Cormacist their power standing would be rather reduced). Nazi Europa standing among TNPers might be even lower into the negatives which would boost TNP by 300 points to 2516.63 supplanting Lazarus' position in 10th place.

There is also an appearances list where Osiris seems to be doing well interregionally and would likely be reported on a Red Herring media organization as a big winner of the Hypothetical Summit along with TWP, TEP, Lazarus, TNP(the biggest losers stay basically the same except that the red herring peddlers would focus more on the Nazis than Internationale, even though the actual seems to show the Nazis actually not losing as badly as the Internationale). Regions that weren't included in the calculation are North Korea and various allies of Nazi Europa and the Internationale. Part of the reason that the Internationale might not be doing as well as it could is because of it's apparent hostility to the Communist Bloc(which is doing quite well for itself on this chart). There's also an ongoing internal dispute within TCB between Zennyists and a more radical faction and some of them are leaving to the Internationale. Now analyzing the numbers: attempts to mend fences with TCB won't help the Internationale, and the safest option suggested by the calculation for the Internationale might be to go Universal Raider and try to raid everybody else on the list(note: that this list doesn't have their allies like North Korea).

Here are lists of the top 15

What are the calculations that led you to see the Rejected Realms as the most powerful?

Eluvatar:

What are the calculations that led you to see the Rejected Realms as the most powerful?

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I use 2D arrays to rank the person's Clout and Salience relative of each other, then Multiply across the 2D arrays while simultaneously summing them up to get overall score. All I need to know then is factor Position.


Overall Sum of(Clout*Salience)-Appearances. It's a kind of ladder theory(where you rank who you like most, who is most powerful etc. except I'm having to estimate another person's ladders), except this is dealing with political relationships.

With regards to TRR, first what I did is I took a look at TRR's Embassy list and saw who was listed first(e.g. TRR thinks highest of itself because I assume Human nature is egotistical or at least self-interested> so TRR gets 26 out of the 26 people in the game, while the first region listed in their embassy list is Lazarus so Lazarus is listed first so they get the second highest number=25, the next one is FRA so they would get 24 if they had made the 500 population threshold-which they didn't so instead TSP got the 24 number, Nazis who they hate get 1 the lowest number and so on. Some have a tied rank), then I input those in the Clout Box. I then Sum up the numbers in that list(26+25++24+1...n=Clout Index) and the number gives a Base Clout index(or total Social Capital). As it currently stands TWP is actually the most powerful at this present time, though in this particular 'game' they are predicted to be displaced by other regional powers, mainly Europeia and 10K Islands with TRR being the GCR that's standing out on top-likely because they are defenders and are anti-Nazi since this 'game' appears to be a developing anti-Nazi scenario considering the Nazis got the 2nd lowest score-mainly because few major regions like them(this is not a shock tbh). Note: That I've been working on this spreadsheet for the last 4 days and was unaware of the CAIN conference that Europeia is holding on October 9.

I then did the same basic process with the Salience Box(though the high number here is supposed to be who they like the most, rather than who TRR thinks is most powerful-this is where my analysis has a hole in it as I am not exactly sure who TRR citizens'(or anyone) consider most powerful and I have found that straight up asking them is not as effective. However, I can figure out their Salience list fairly easily(that Embassy list and what I know about their political position from quizzing them). It effectively was the same as the Clout box-this still works as I used that for the TNP General Election and it still predicted that Plemb would be the winner, but it's kinda like calculating area under a curb using algebra instead of Calculus-it's not as exact and it assumes that people consider their friends the most powerful-which can work in situations where that is the 'common sense' assumption- though it may not be the correct sense-a Thomas Theorem effect).

I then multiply down hopping along the boxes to get my answer (26 Clout*26 Saleince)=676 while simultaneously summing up the lists. There is also second 'across' summation I do as well in which I divide the resulting sums from that calculation by the number of actors in the game. Then I multiply that result by the corresponding salience to get an appearances factor which I then subtract from the Prediction Matrix sums. This gives me the winners and losers and TRR managed to get a high number, while the Nazis managed to do worse than a Puppet storage region(which is the bare minimum clout one can have).

If you have a gmail, I can send you the spreadsheet(PM me with the email if you like) which I think will be easier than explaining the exact calculations and perhaps you could tweak the Clout and Salience boxes on your own so they are more accurate; plus I will have independent corroboration of my findings rather than doing this stuff on my own-I was going to ask Quack do it but he seems to have been absent of late.

I don't know if using embassies is a very good proxy for relations at all. It's mostly convention, honestly. I'd look to treaties instead.

Guy:

I don't know if using embassies is a very good proxy for relations at all. It's mostly convention, honestly. I'd look to treaties instead.

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Noted: I certainly took into account Treaties and alliances when I was compiling this information(after all one can have an Embassy with even a almost-enemy as you said-for convention's sake), however I wanted to be sure I accounted for as many people they have relations and in an a timely manner. I assumed that if a Region doesn't know about some other region-it ain't going to get an embassy(it be a very strange day if a region forms an embassy with some group they absolutely don't know exists before and after they form the embassy-Extreme Short Term Memory loss is only way that's feasible I think).

I gave the regions with an alliance a higher number in the preference lists, rather than solely basing it on the embassy list. One of the issues I came across is many regions don't publish their list of allies in a readily accessible manner(and digging through archives doesn't necessarily tell me how friendly those regions currently are at this present time-some places legally have old alliances from years ago but virtually have no relations with each other at all right now). Something I did notice, however, is that many regions that were, shall one say "cold" with each other did not have an embassy with each other(I guess out of spite?), and even if they do, they're usually on the bottom of the list. Our own list places Europeia much higher than Balder, and Osiris isn't even on the list, despite it's status as a GCR. GCR's are also usually higher in the GCR Embassy lists than UCR's which is indicative of something. Plus we don't have embassies with say Nazi Europa or North Korea, so It's a fair enough measure to gauge 'friendliness', just not as good as it could be. Some regions were easy to gauge: TWP listed it's allies on it's front page while the Pacific-I couldn't even find their version of Embassy row on their forum so I had to work with their official statements and embassy list alone. It also doesn't fully account for joint operations and groups that they know obviously exists: TNP is very aware of Nazi Europa so the Nazi's clout might be higher than I estimated, but Nazi Europa might have low salience(e.g. likeability). To give you an idea on Clout mechanics: I assumed the Nazis have a low but still positive clout rating, but they could have a ton of Negative Clout-which paradoxically might raise their power level in some ways in which they could wield reverse-psychology=where anyone they endorse gets socially blacklisted by other regions. In such a situation it's actually in the Nazis' interest to be more offensive to maximize Negative Clout gain; a kind of Inverse power gain, where trying to lower the Nazis winnings only feeds them more power(because they are already in the negative)-in that situation best course of action to get rid of them is to ignore them-but this isn't necessarily in the interests of their opponents. From what I found via the math-the Nazis provide easy political justification for a regime to feel morally upright and so it's actually in the interest of some governments to feed the negative clout of the Nazis so they have a constant enemy to define themselves in opposition against-kinda like Orwellian situation, RL North Korea's foreign Relations, the RL War on Terror, the Defender-Raider dichotomy, or Carl Schmitt's theories on the friend-enemy distinction and Political identity.

There is also the issue of undeclared alliances that have no treaty formalization.

TNP's Embassy list is as Follows, mostly regions I have seen in joint ops appear first and Stargate I know we have an Alliance with: Albion, The East Pacific, Kingdom of Alexandria, the South Pacific, Europeia, Stargate, Taijitu, International Democratic Union, Equilism, Balder, the Rejected Realms, the West Pacific, Lazarus, Spiritus, Lone Wolves United, NationStates, The Commonwealth of Crowns, British Isles, Mordor, Unknown, The Skeleton Army, Australia, Anti Nazi Alliance, The Coalition of Democratic Nations, 10000 Islands, Vvardenfell, USSD, Canada, Nasicournia, One big Island, Europe, Warzone Asia, and Warzone Australia

Some of the above regions didn't make the above 500 population threshold I used which trimmed down the number as I wanted to see who the major powers were as it currently stands, Suffice to say the Most powerful Region out of the top 26 Nationstates regions(by Population count) will be Europeia after the CAIN conference is over, right now it's TWP.

You suggest that TNP needs to ally with a number of regions and a number of those we are already allied with. Including TSP, Europeia, and TEP.

Also I think your analysis of Osiris is extremely wrong. Cormac's authority and influence in that region cannot be seriously considered to be second to anyone (in my opinion).

mcmasterdonia:

You suggest that TNP needs to ally with a number of regions and a number of those we are already allied with. Including TSP, Europeia, and TEP.

Also I think your analysis of Osiris is extremely wrong. Cormac's authority and influence in that region cannot be seriously considered to be second to anyone (in my opinion).

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Indeed, which is why I edited that post with a clarifier on Adytus control(because that initial 71% number is ridiculous- I assumed that the Guardians were equal clout with each other), I also think Cormac is the most powerful in Osiris individually(and I suspect his power-level is 22%), but even he needs supporters(otherwise his endorsement advantage would dry up eventually when a more appealing Delegate wannabe comes along, and influence prevents some people from being banjected-and especially in the offsite Forum Govt). I assume that Adytus is low clout but high Salience.

As for the alliances, that's good to know. it's not really my suggestion as its what the numbers showed to be correct action if TNP wants to maximize gains. One thing the Spreadsheet seemed to show is that 10K Islands would not be a wise investment for some reason-Not sure why that is so.

mcmasterdonia:

Also I think your analysis of Osiris is extremely wrong. Cormac's authority and influence in that region cannot be seriously considered to be second to anyone (in my opinion).

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This. I got a good laugh from your analysis though, Nasania, because it basically demonstrated how ridiculous it is to try to analyze NationStates based on real life ideology and using the statistics you're using. Of course everyone has known how absurd that is for a while, but now it's plain for everyone to see. Adytus is certainly popular, well liked, smart, active, and as a result politically influential, but I rule "that shitheap of a region" with an iron fist. Everyone knows that.

St George:

I would pay nothing, because its sort of obvious. Cormac needed a reason to purge the defenders from Osiris. Tim gave him a reason because sanity isn't a strong point of anyone in that shitheap of a region.

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you too, by the way, Georgie. I remember when we demonized and purged defenders from Osiris together! Good times.

Cormac:

mcmasterdonia:

Also I think your analysis of Osiris is extremely wrong. Cormac's authority and influence in that region cannot be seriously considered to be second to anyone (in my opinion).

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This. I got a good laugh from your analysis though, Nasania, because it basically demonstrated how ridiculous it is to try to analyze NationStates based on real life ideology and using the statistics you're using. Of course everyone has known how absurd that is for a while, but now it's plain for everyone to see. Adytus is certainly popular, well liked, smart, active, and as a result politically influential, but I rule "that shitheap of a region" with an iron fist. Everyone knows that.

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You assume your control over that region is more than it might actually be(Your endorsement level isn't that high, compared to our own delegate 197 vs 1127 :Adytus has 120). With all due respect(and it is your region not mine), if I were in your shoes, I would be a little careful of Adytus as his high Salience combined with high clout could be dangerous to your position. He's popular enough he could Coup you because of his activity level, luckily for you he seems to be a newbie and seemingly loyal. The predicted outcome for you is you do stay in charge of that region so it's not THAT inaccurate, and besides Dictatorships are the most stable governments in RL and Nationstates, so long as the Dictator is active/alive. or keeps their oligarchs happy(which you seem to be doing quite well at as you've survived the initial 2 weeks when you are most vulnerable) your tenure is indefinite. Things that can happen are coups, your account gets deleted, a technical glitch etc. This model assumes that popular uprising is actually the least guaranteed way to overthrow dictators, and that dissatisfaction among oligarchs/supporting structure is the more common method of leaders being overthrown. You also assume that Gameplay Politics is more different than RL politics than it might actually be, the basic political mechanics are still the same, they are just filtered through a game mechanic.

Besides this is just an experiment to test that hypothesis(I repeatedly make it clear that this is based on the numbers-not a personal recommendation). So far it's only off the mark if the inputs are inaccurate. It DID predict Plemb would win by a fairly small margin, now we have to wait and see how Europeia does in the CAIN conference.

I know Adytus personally, he's the member of Osiris' government that's least likely to coup the region. Although with that cast of characters that is a pretty low bar.

This is all very intriguing though.

Cormac:

St George:

I would pay nothing, because its sort of obvious. Cormac needed a reason to purge the defenders from Osiris. Tim gave him a reason because sanity isn't a strong point of anyone in that shitheap of a region.

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you too, by the way, Georgie. I remember when we demonized and purged defenders from Osiris together! Good times.

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I mean, I'm largely not saying that as a criticism (although shitheap is a derogatory term, obviously), but is my point inaccurate? With you and Osiris firmly raider and Tim being a warden and founder of a defender region there was always going to be a break between you, despite he essentially ensuring the success of your side back in April.

St George:

Cormac:

St George:

I would pay nothing, because its sort of obvious. Cormac needed a reason to purge the defenders from Osiris. Tim gave him a reason because sanity isn't a strong point of anyone in that shitheap of a region.

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you too, by the way, Georgie. I remember when we demonized and purged defenders from Osiris together! Good times.

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I mean, I'm largely not saying that as a criticism (although shitheap is a derogatory term, obviously), but is my point inaccurate? With you and Osiris firmly raider and Tim being a warden and founder of a defender region there was always going to be a break between you, despite he essentially ensuring the success of your side back in April.

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It honestly has nothing to do with him being defender, and in fact the Grey Wardens refuse to even use the label defender anymore. We have embassies with a defender region and a defender-sympathetic region, Wintreath and Yggdrasil. I don't think we have any active defenders as citizens right now, but we do have formerly active defenders or defender-sympathetic citizens.

There is a difference between defending regions against our raids and committing to invading our region because we raid. That is the problem with the Grey Wardens, and was the reason Tim was shown the door after being given an opportunity to leave the organization committed to invading our region, in favor of participating in any one of the multiple defender organizations that aren't. Defenders from organizations that simply defend regions generally remain welcome in Osiris. But "defenders" committed to invading and destroying Osiris are clearly not welcome.

lol re: Osiris
No one has second to Cormac in influence/power (whatever stupid term you use) there, and anyone who has been part of the region for more than five minutes will know that. It was different before, but a lot changed in 2014.

Lord Ravenclaw:

lol re: Osiris
No one has second to Cormac in influence/power (whatever stupid term you use) there, and anyone who has been part of the region for more than five minutes will know that. It was different before, but a lot changed in 2014.

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Good to see you found it amusing, However, when I set up the inputs I actually did assume Cormac had the most clout(in other words potential Power). To be exact, I assumed Cormac had 250 clout points while Adytus had 150(last I checked 250>150). Then I multiplied their activity level to those numbers. Cormac then has 1050(250*4.2) Applied Clout while Adytus would have 4695(150*31.3) Applied Clout. I would then have to conclude one of two possibilities

Null Hypothesis: this number is correct(which doesn't seem likely and as you, Cormac, and McM have confirmed), or

Alternative Hypothesis: Adytus has a ridiculously small amount of clout(Which I think is more correct considering he mostly just posts spam messages). If Adytus has only 15 Clout then doing the math shows a different set up 469.5 Applied Clout and when I rerun the Power pie so to speak, Cormac has about 22% of the total and has the most power of that region, this number seems more reasonable as our McM has 16% in our region.

When I use the term 'power' as I did in my previous post, I am referring to kinetic power(applied Influence etc), and even if Cormac's Potential clout is much higher than Adytus, his actual kinetic(how much he applies) is possibly less than Adytus(who are you more likely to deal with to handle a routine forum operation? Most likely a secretary or cabinet official rather than the delegate). The Logic goes like this: Cormac's got a lot of Clout but doesn't use a lot of it, while Adytus seems to be using as much clout he has). I included that high number to show just how much of an effect applying one's influence can have in the end situation.

If you had actually read my entire post you would know that I myself do not believe that number regarding Adytus(let's get real 71% is a ridiculously high percentage of the power pie-especially for the non-delegate) but I first wanted to walk through the absurdity of that logic(because it's fun). The Logical alternative then is to conclude that Adytus must have a small amount of clout there(that or Cormac is extremely trusting of Adytus). I included the initial step to show how I was walking through the process, it's a good and amusing hook, and to show that application of one's power is every bit as important as possessing said power.

Finally, I recall I sent you a Private message to please help me quantify the relationships(or rank the list of persons I gave you) in Osiris(since you were involved there and are so experienced in those affairs), yet you never replied(and I presumed you probably never would). So I had to guess based on what I read from their official statements(which can be nothing more than propaganda at times-so not exactly a good gauge) and the information on their forums.