Who should win my next election?

plembobria

plembobria

TNPer
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This is not another forum poll for my national election. I'm through with those. Daggum socialists!! :headbang:

My main question is, based on the political climate in Plemboria (which I will try my best to describe) which bloc do you think the people would be in favor of? This isn't question of your own political views, but rather question of how you think the ignorant masses would react to what is happening.

Anyway, economic collapse has hit Plembobria, unemployment is slowly on the rise. When collapse hit, neither party held any particular amount of power. The right-wing bloc held the Senate, and the Left held the Commons. The King did not appoint a PM and declared himself head of government. It's important to note that the king didn't do anything particularly politically conspicuous, nothing has happened that can be blamed or credited for.

The right wing bloc refused to pass the budget, causing a short government shutdown, which ended with the parliament being dissolved, and referendum on the Senate's status being held. The King promulgated the previous budget. That is the one, passed by the left-wing bloc before the collapse hit.

The budget which the Senate refused to pass would have increased the corporate tax, and lowered the personal tax, both by a small amount.

On the whole, do you think that the Right's political budget-blocking stunt would increase or decrease their popularity?

Would the people blame the Left for the economic collapse, since they held power for a long time before the collapse?
 
I'm not good at sociology, obviously, but I can say that the people are gonna elect whoever is gonna bring them out of the economic recession, or at least improve the economy again. The party that presents the best economic solution in the eyes of the people will probably be elected to be the government.
 
Let's be specific, though. What kind of Left? If I remember correctly, Plembobria has a bunch of left-wing parties, liberals AND socialists to name a few. When we say "the left", Plemby, would you rather it be the liberals or the socialists who propose such things and get elected?
 
Nebula:
Socialists. I need friends.
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A socialist government in control of a kingdom, one that has positive relationships with other kingdoms and also advocates for Sheireni independence, would most likely cause, oh, I don't know, a revolution.

:2c:
 
Presuming that the Senate is abolished, I would say that that implies that most people have grown weary of the intransigent nonsense of its mostly rightist membership, and so would support the more Leftist bloc in the Commons. However, parties in government during economic downturns do not tend to do particularly well, perhaps the election could end up producing a hung parliament and necessitating a grand coalition (if both blocs in the Commons have a reasonably enough sized moderate wing), if not then a slim majority of the Left/a minority government from either side that struggles to get things done due to their own rebels/not being able to make case-by-case deals with other parties.
 
Zyvetskistaahn:
Presuming that the Senate is abolished, I would say that that implies that most people have grown weary of the intransigent nonsense of its mostly rightist membership, and so would support the more Leftist bloc in the Commons. However, parties in government during economic downturns do not tend to do particularly well, perhaps the election could end up producing a hung parliament and necessitating a grand coalition (if both blocs in the Commons have a reasonably enough sized moderate wing), if not then a slim majority of the Left/a minority government from either side that struggles to get things done due to their own rebels/not being able to make case-by-case deals with other parties.
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The most recent election produced a hung parliament. Said election being held due to a cabinet revolt. (The junior party* in coalition resigned, causing a split of said party). Though more left-wing parties than right gained seats, it was not enough to form a government. The monarch proposed that a grand coalition be formed, but negotiations failed. He took the position of head of government, appointing members of both groups as cabinet members, until the next election, which is to happen soon.

What I lack though, is a good centrist party.

*Junior party being the People's Socialist Front, member split into The New Left. The larger party in the coalition was the Revolutionary Democratic Party.

The term "Left-wing bloc" is defined as TNL and RDP. PSF is slowly moving farther and farther to the (nearly odious) far-left.

To answer Syrixia and Nebula, economic policy and foreign policy in the various parties are separate issues. National and RDP both are non-interventionist and are annoyed at the whole Syrixia and Nebula conflict business. Also, please keep your posts intelligent and relevant.
 
Then, presuming you're wanting a government that doesn't need to call an election again immediately (:P), I'd say a slim Leftist majority that splits and flounders on some issues of difference, but can get through budgets and issues important to them, if the Senate is abolished. If the Senate survives, then I'd say that you end up with a slim Rightist majority, perhaps with similar problems to the Left (though from what you've said it seems that the Left is struggling with greater disunity). Maybe use this election to start the rise of a new centrist party, have it take a few seats (not enough to be of any major help to either Left or Right), and grow further over time?
 
The Left's disunity may hurt them if the Right present themselves as confident, united saviors of Plembobria. The King will be blamed for doing little or nothing to halt the economic crisis.
 
Rar. Posting properly this time.

Since the right-wing has taken the Senate despite getting a lower number of votes, due to districting funniness, and since the right wing can be blamed for the failure to pass a budget, and since the specific budget that they opposed reduced personal tax (something everyone likes) and increased corporate tax (something that is generally a left-wing move), I think it's likely that popular opinion shifted to the Left. Not overwhelmingly, but perhaps enough to form a coalition.
 
In general terms, in the modern real world, it is the right-wing that profits from economic weakness. Common perceptions tend to label them as being economic managers, and the left as being socially progressive, from a marginal perspective. See Nick Clegg, claiming to be the "heart of a Tory government and the brains of a Labour one".

However there are exceptions - for example, SYRIZA, or the Icesave Disputes and the ensuing revolution, which brought into power a Social Democratic-led coalition. In general, such exceptions tend to be fuelled by common outcry against austerity measures resulting from foreign obligations. In SYRIZA's case, imposed by Germany, and in the Icesave Disputes, attempted imposition by the UK and the Netherlands indirectly.

Extraordinary actions like the dissolution of parliament tend to exaggerate the prevailing winds of change, if they have any effect at all - I refer here to the Whitlam Dismissal in Australia, which handed government to the LNP that was on the way up, while the Republican budget blocks tended towards delaying their eventual electoral recovery. In by-elections triggered by the party (i.e. not an incumbent becoming deceased) and recounts, favour tends to swing against the party that triggered the vote.

I would assume that the Left would win power, potentially in coalition with a radical left-populist party, or right-populist party with a strong nationalist platform.
 
The Grim Reaper:
I would assume that the Left would win power, potentially in coalition with a radical left-populist party, or right-populist party with a strong nationalist platform.
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Makes sense, though unless Plemby wants his people to go around singing "Plembobria, Plembobria über alles" he should probably let the left win. Who knows what crazy stuff a hypernationalist Plembobria could do?
 
Syrixia:
The Grim Reaper:
I would assume that the Left would win power, potentially in coalition with a radical left-populist party, or right-populist party with a strong nationalist platform.
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Makes sense, though unless Plemby wants his people to go around singing "Plembobria, Plembobria über alles" he should probably let the left win. Who knows what crazy stuff a hypernationalist Plembobria could do?
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Every country has a hypernationalist lot. Tough times tend to push people toward extremism. The average voter, in any country, is very hot-headed and reactionary. Not tempered, cool-headed and intelligent.

I think I'll give the leftist parties a majority. That is RDP, New Left, and the Agriculture and Labor party (Merger of Farmer's Ecology Party and People's Socialist Front). A&L will not join the government, but their seats will allow the government to pass legislation. I'm going to introduce a centrist party, as well as a far-right nationalist party.

Thank you all for your helpful suggestions.
 
SillyString:
Rar. Posting properly this time.

Since the right-wing has taken the Senate despite getting a lower number of votes, due to districting funniness, and since the right wing can be blamed for the failure to pass a budget, and since the specific budget that they opposed reduced personal tax (something everyone likes) and increased corporate tax (something that is generally a left-wing move), I think it's likely that popular opinion shifted to the Left. Not overwhelmingly, but perhaps enough to form a coalition.
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Hmm, I'm not so sure.

To make a real life comparison, something similar happened with the Australian Parliament in the 70s. There were certainly other issues at play, but the result was that the right who had been blocking the budget were elected to government. In this situation, I think the left would wear a great deal of the blame for the economic and other isuses of the country, and that the people might vote for the right in order to see a change of government. Rather than ideologically considering what will happen when that change occurs.
 
mcmasterdonia:
SillyString:
Rar. Posting properly this time.

Since the right-wing has taken the Senate despite getting a lower number of votes, due to districting funniness, and since the right wing can be blamed for the failure to pass a budget, and since the specific budget that they opposed reduced personal tax (something everyone likes) and increased corporate tax (something that is generally a left-wing move), I think it's likely that popular opinion shifted to the Left. Not overwhelmingly, but perhaps enough to form a coalition.
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Hmm, I'm not so sure.

To make a real life comparison, something similar happened with the Australian Parliament in the 70s. There were certainly other issues at play, but the result was that the right who had been blocking the budget were elected to government. In this situation, I think the left would wear a great deal of the blame for the economic and other isuses of the country, and that the people might vote for the right in order to see a change of government. Rather than ideologically considering what will happen when that change occurs.
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Was the Right elected despite getting fewer votes than the Left?
 
SillyString:
mcmasterdonia:
SillyString:
Rar. Posting properly this time.

Since the right-wing has taken the Senate despite getting a lower number of votes, due to districting funniness, and since the right wing can be blamed for the failure to pass a budget, and since the specific budget that they opposed reduced personal tax (something everyone likes) and increased corporate tax (something that is generally a left-wing move), I think it's likely that popular opinion shifted to the Left. Not overwhelmingly, but perhaps enough to form a coalition.
Click to expand...

Hmm, I'm not so sure.

To make a real life comparison, something similar happened with the Australian Parliament in the 70s. There were certainly other issues at play, but the result was that the right who had been blocking the budget were elected to government. In this situation, I think the left would wear a great deal of the blame for the economic and other isuses of the country, and that the people might vote for the right in order to see a change of government. Rather than ideologically considering what will happen when that change occurs.
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Was the Right elected despite getting fewer votes than the Left?
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Yes, referring to McM's example.
 
Nebula:
Wolfsea:
Syrixia:
Nebula:
Socialists. I need friends.
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A socialist government in control of a kingdom, one that has positive relationships with other kingdoms and also advocates for Sheireni independence, would most likely cause, oh, I don't know, a revolution.

:2c:
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Ahem :bat:
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Says one of the first five Faibuaizu members. :yes:
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Well lets face it Wolfsea has not exactly been causing huge upheaval across the region, let alone by being "A socialist government in control of a kingdom, one that has positive relationships with other kingdoms and also advocates for Sheireni independence".

#JustSayin'
 
Syrixia:
The Grim Reaper:
I would assume that the Left would win power, potentially in coalition with a radical left-populist party, or right-populist party with a strong nationalist platform.
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Makes sense, though unless Plemby wants his people to go around singing "Plembobria, Plembobria über alles" he should probably let the left win. Who knows what crazy stuff a hypernationalist Plembobria could do?
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Proper response to this:
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Plembobria, Plembobria über alles!
 
plembobria:
Syrixia:
The Grim Reaper:
I would assume that the Left would win power, potentially in coalition with a radical left-populist party, or right-populist party with a strong nationalist platform.
Click to expand...
Makes sense, though unless Plemby wants his people to go around singing "Plembobria, Plembobria über alles" he should probably let the left win. Who knows what crazy stuff a hypernationalist Plembobria could do?
Click to expand...
Proper response to this:
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Plembobria, Plembobria über alles!
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*nukes because muh frehdums*
 
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