Beginning of the end in Syria, but a bigger war looms

Emmanuel Bassil

Emmanuel Bassil

TNPer
Sorry.
I was asked to post this here, so what the heck...




Something has happened today.
Something big, something, first of all, that proves the exterior world is interfering in Syria, and second of all, prompting the close demise of Bashar

The FSA (Free Syrian Army) has blown up a building containing high official. The Minister of Defence and Interior are dead. So are many generals.
But someone much more important died, that will collapse bachar. Asef Shawkat is a relative of Bashar. He is one of 2 pillars of popular support for his regime. He has been killed. With Shawkat out, his following will also dissipate, halving Bashar's power.
Also, Western Sources state that Israeli, Saudii, Qatari and Turkish intelligence organised and planned the FSA's attack. No denial from any of those sides. you cannot deny this, how can they blow up these important people in this organised fashion!? Note: The FSA has claimed responsibility for this attack. Bashar will fall shortly, but this is not what I fear.

If Sunni's take power, distability will hit the region, and god forbid war.
Syria will send Sunni's into Iraq and reinforce the Sunni minority, destabilizing it
Hezbollah in my country (Lebanon) which is now very powerful and is the one color government, will lose power, and the opposite camp will stand up.

Minutes after the explosion, fighting resumed in Lebanon. This is how volatile it is.

Iran, USA's creation, will go to war with its neighbours in the close future, and aid the Western economy very much. US weapon sales. Have you not realized the Military bases in the Khalij? Khalij is where all the money is at. The US made millions of the Coalition in the Iraq war, and so will it now.
And to further this claim, Iran as a poor nation, will not buy something unless it serves a purpose.
Hezbollah has stopped firing its missiles a while back, and been stashing missiles and building bunkers in the South. Israeli Intelligence and the CIA take the number to 100,000, and 78 bunkers too. A war is looming, I am sure. Just recently the Canadian Embassy contacted us and asked for Evacuation Preparation (Via Commercial airlines) The entire world was dumbfounded...

It is the first time I bother to post politics, but I know this is huge.
All the Arab World held its breath.
In Lebanon, reserves were mobilized, and fighting has resumed btw Sunni and Shiaa.
 
EDIT:
There were many defections since this event (less than 12 hours). Around 300 soldiers and 40 officers have defected


This happened now.

Alarms were sounded on the Israeli Border with Lebanon bordering 2 towns. Heavy tanks were heard and machine gun fire.
Hezbollah is trying something funny...
 
It's an interesting situation. The Russians have aligned themselves with the failing regime. If that failing regime does anything that is untoward, the Russians find themselves in a nasty situation.

Mind you, Syria is the only Russian ally in the middle east and Russia wants to be a player because Syria provides Russia with the one thing that Russia always wants...a warm water port.

Russia would be foolish to take a position that puts them at odds with NATO and the US and they know it.

What needs to be done (despite Obama trying his best to start a war between the Islamic nations and everyone else to bring on an Islamic 'Armageddon') is that Russia should be allowed to keep its warm water port regardless of what regime takes control of Syria. That position alone would totally confound the Russians when they get what they want. ;D
 
Well, Syria has been a sort of Communist nation since Hafez Al Assad.
This is why it is so precious to Russia.
Iran is more like a tool which Russia develops to piss of the US, Syria is primordial.
If Sunnis take power, they will join the Arab Sunni bloc, so the Saudiis on a broad line.

Also, just to put this out there. If the US gets its hands dirty by direct involvment, (which it won't) so will Russia.
This is no Libya.
This is Syria.
 
Well, the regime of Assad is going to fall one way or another (though I think massive outside involvement like in Libya won't happen). We will see whether what comes afterwards is any better, I am sceptical.

But Iran going to war? With whom then, all its neighbours? You may not like the Islamic laws they enforce, but this regime is acting quite rationally, they are definitely not nuts. And that's what an attack on the neighbours would be.
North Korea is where much more crazy guys are at work.
 
"But Iran going to war? With whom then, all its neighbours? You may not like the Islamic laws they enforce, but this regime is acting quite rationally, they are definitely not nuts. And that's what an attack on the neighbours would be.
North Korea is where much more crazy guys are at work."

Rational?
And 2.
Iran, is a wild animal being cornered.
If sanctions go one like this, it will collapse.
What do cornered animals do?

And second, regional Sunni-Shiaa tensions are very high.
A religious war isn't unlikely.
Finally, where have you seen rational in Iran?
 
Well, in which way did they behave irrationally on the international stage so far?

In my opinion they are playing the diplomatic game very skilfully, always going just to the edge of the red line, but not crossing it.
 
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