wizardofoz01
TNPer
I'm sure you've all heard of bird flu, or as the news organizations like to call it, "avian influenza" in an attempt to give it a more scientific bent :B):
I'm also sure that many of you are at least somewhat concerned about bird flu, and I thought it worthwhile to bring up this topic and see what the responses are.
I have to say first of all that I believe the concern over bird flu specifically is OVERREACHING. To me it seems appalling that many so-called "scientific experts" have in fact forgotten one of the basic principles of science, evolution. What I mean is this: nature automatically selects for weaker strains of flu viruses and any other parasite. I'll use the current H5N1 bird flu as an example. Now, most people believe this is spread by migratory birds. Extremely sick birds simply do not fly very far, and hence they are less effective at spreading the flu to other birds. Therefore, the most EFFICIENT form of any flu virus (and the form that every flu virus "wants" to adopt) is a form that causes some symptoms, but still results in the person or animal feeling well enough to do its daily business. The logic is simple: if an organism performs its daily routine, it is more likely to interact with other organisms and pass on the infection. Humans are no exception to this rule.
Many experts cite the great 1918 flu virus pandemic that killed 20 million people or some number such as that. However, many forget the exact historical circumstances that led to that 1918 flu. Many forget that this was during World War I, where many millions of people were crowded into UNSANITARY trenches and even more unsanitary hospital beds. In these crammed places, even a deadly flu virus could hop from one person to the other extremely easily, creating the rare combination of deadly virus + easily transmittable virus. It is instructive to note that in the following winter, when the Western Front was essentially abandoned, that this specific flu strain appeared as a "normal" weak flu virus that was nowhere near as deadly. Hence, evolution selected for a weak flu virus, because organisms with any stronger version of the flu did not transmit it to as many people due to the severity of their symptoms.
Now, I am not suggesting flu outbreaks (and I do not use the word "pandemic") do not happen. They happened once in the 1950's and once in the 1960's, at least here in the US. However, those outbreaks I would not call pandemics because the number of people stricken with serious symptoms and fatalities was nowhere near as high as the 1918 virus. These lesser outbreaks WERE pandemics in the sense that many people were infected; but were not pandemics in the sense of mortality rate.
Therefore, I would argue that unless there's a "Western Front" scenario again in the world, the chances of having a virus of the magnitude of 1918 are slim-to-none, and slim just left the building. To support this theory, note that the current bird flu that is extremely deadly grew primarily out of cramped chicken farms in places such as Southeastern Asia, a condition analagous to the Western Front in humans in 1918. Even if the bird flu jumps the species barrier, it does not necessarily mean it will be as deadly to humans as it is to birds. Even if it is severe for humans, there is no guarantee at all that it will be easily spreadable. I do expect that this current bird flu strain in birds will become much less severe in the following couple of winters.
It is also instructive to look at another virus that jumped the species barrier: HIV, which is closely related to a similar virus in monkeys called SIV (simian immunodeficiency virus). HIV has a powerful killing potential, but note also that it is extremely hard to transmit. HIV disintergrates after being exposed to outside air in a matter of seconds. Furthremore, HIV has an extremely long latency period (perhaps the longest for any infectious agent).
I found it somewhat amusing and somewhat sad that many people on Thanksgiving were afraid to eat turkeys because of bird flu risk. I personally blame biologists and other supposed health-experts at not communicating better with the American public. Rule #1 is: at the temperatures at which food is cooked, any virus dies. Period. Indeed, if one wanted to worry about something on Thanksgiving, one should instead worry about undercooking the turkey, which accounts for at least a few thousand major incidents every year in this country.
I'm also sure that many of you are at least somewhat concerned about bird flu, and I thought it worthwhile to bring up this topic and see what the responses are.
I have to say first of all that I believe the concern over bird flu specifically is OVERREACHING. To me it seems appalling that many so-called "scientific experts" have in fact forgotten one of the basic principles of science, evolution. What I mean is this: nature automatically selects for weaker strains of flu viruses and any other parasite. I'll use the current H5N1 bird flu as an example. Now, most people believe this is spread by migratory birds. Extremely sick birds simply do not fly very far, and hence they are less effective at spreading the flu to other birds. Therefore, the most EFFICIENT form of any flu virus (and the form that every flu virus "wants" to adopt) is a form that causes some symptoms, but still results in the person or animal feeling well enough to do its daily business. The logic is simple: if an organism performs its daily routine, it is more likely to interact with other organisms and pass on the infection. Humans are no exception to this rule.
Many experts cite the great 1918 flu virus pandemic that killed 20 million people or some number such as that. However, many forget the exact historical circumstances that led to that 1918 flu. Many forget that this was during World War I, where many millions of people were crowded into UNSANITARY trenches and even more unsanitary hospital beds. In these crammed places, even a deadly flu virus could hop from one person to the other extremely easily, creating the rare combination of deadly virus + easily transmittable virus. It is instructive to note that in the following winter, when the Western Front was essentially abandoned, that this specific flu strain appeared as a "normal" weak flu virus that was nowhere near as deadly. Hence, evolution selected for a weak flu virus, because organisms with any stronger version of the flu did not transmit it to as many people due to the severity of their symptoms.
Now, I am not suggesting flu outbreaks (and I do not use the word "pandemic") do not happen. They happened once in the 1950's and once in the 1960's, at least here in the US. However, those outbreaks I would not call pandemics because the number of people stricken with serious symptoms and fatalities was nowhere near as high as the 1918 virus. These lesser outbreaks WERE pandemics in the sense that many people were infected; but were not pandemics in the sense of mortality rate.
Therefore, I would argue that unless there's a "Western Front" scenario again in the world, the chances of having a virus of the magnitude of 1918 are slim-to-none, and slim just left the building. To support this theory, note that the current bird flu that is extremely deadly grew primarily out of cramped chicken farms in places such as Southeastern Asia, a condition analagous to the Western Front in humans in 1918. Even if the bird flu jumps the species barrier, it does not necessarily mean it will be as deadly to humans as it is to birds. Even if it is severe for humans, there is no guarantee at all that it will be easily spreadable. I do expect that this current bird flu strain in birds will become much less severe in the following couple of winters.
It is also instructive to look at another virus that jumped the species barrier: HIV, which is closely related to a similar virus in monkeys called SIV (simian immunodeficiency virus). HIV has a powerful killing potential, but note also that it is extremely hard to transmit. HIV disintergrates after being exposed to outside air in a matter of seconds. Furthremore, HIV has an extremely long latency period (perhaps the longest for any infectious agent).
I found it somewhat amusing and somewhat sad that many people on Thanksgiving were afraid to eat turkeys because of bird flu risk. I personally blame biologists and other supposed health-experts at not communicating better with the American public. Rule #1 is: at the temperatures at which food is cooked, any virus dies. Period. Indeed, if one wanted to worry about something on Thanksgiving, one should instead worry about undercooking the turkey, which accounts for at least a few thousand major incidents every year in this country.
