I wrote this brief essay months ago for a university class and figured I'd post it to celebrate the reopening of the University (even if I'm a bit late). Some of the citations ended up a bit funky due to the software I used for them. It's by no means the best summary of the entire situation, but it covers the basic concerns of most countries involved and potential outcomes. As it stands now, the dam began filling in June and is expected to take 5-7 years to be completely full while Ethiopia has refused to sign any agreement setting firm numbers on how much water will be released downstream to Egypt.
While most of the world’s attention is currently turned to COVID-19, many long term issues continue to play out around the world, including one that began back in 2011 and threatens the long-term stability of many African nations: The Ethiopian Nile dam project. Officially labeled the Great Ethiopian Renaissance Dam, it was originally proposed back in 2011 and, if complete, is set to be the largest hydroelectric dam in Africa. A total of ten countries depend on the Nile and it’s White Nile and Blue Nile tributaries, according to Foreign Policy’s “River of the Dammed”, but the current dispute revolves around the Blue Nile with Egypt and Ethiopia (Harb). For Ethiopia, this increasing supply in energy could present a chance for large agricultural and industrial growth, however, other regional actors are not too pleased with the project. Most notable of these is Egypt, which depends strongly on the flow of the Nile for agricultural and water-consumption needs.
The conflict between Ethiopia and Egypt is layered heavily with history and regional politics, stretching all the way back to colonial agreements in the 1930s signed by the United Kingdom. These colonial agreements favor Egypt, at the time occupied by the British, and gave Egypt the unequivocal right to veto any projects that might disrupt the flow of the Nile. However, regional power balances have been shifting as population predictions “for 2050 put Egypt’s…populations well below those in some of the eight other countries in the initiative (Harb).” At a glance, it seems as though Ethiopia may be trying to shift the hegemony of Egypt to itself and even the timing of the 2011 announcement is suspicious of this. In 2011, the Egyptian Revolution was in full swing and many observers suspect that the timing “was intended to take advantage of the more powerful nation’s confused political state at a time when the issue of who controls the Nile [was] heating up (“Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam”).” Ethiopia has already shown that they do not intend to have a multipolar system within the region when the Ethiopian ambassador to the United States tweeted on February 26th, “Ethiopia will never sign on an agreement that will surrender its right to use the Nile River” This resolve is based on the fact that Ethiopia’s Lake Tana is the source of 85% of the Nile river’s waters (“Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam”). Ethiopia’s increased resolve also comes as Egypt’s regional power wanes and as “Egypt’s economy is currently woefully underperforming (Harb).”
Up until this point, tensions between Egypt and Ethiopia have been on an uncomfortable simmer while both countries try to negotiate a bargaining range on how many billion cubic meters of water each country will receive from the river flow. With a reversion outcoming looming on the horizon, the question remains what strategies of confrontation each country will adopt. “River of the Dammed” by Imad K. Harb suggests Egypt will respond militarily just “to show Egyptians that their armed forces are looking out for people’s interests” despite the lack of reward military action would bring. Another likely outcome is coercive diplomacy on the side of Ethiopia as Ethiopia is very aware of their leverage over Egypt and has already wielded the upper hand in refusing to show up to recent negotiations. The ideal outcome, though, would involve international mediation and de-escalation (Harb). What might actually happen is a different story altogether and only time will tell as the dam reaches 70% completion and intends to be filled this coming summer (“Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam”).
Dammed if you do, and dammed if you don't
While most of the world’s attention is currently turned to COVID-19, many long term issues continue to play out around the world, including one that began back in 2011 and threatens the long-term stability of many African nations: The Ethiopian Nile dam project. Officially labeled the Great Ethiopian Renaissance Dam, it was originally proposed back in 2011 and, if complete, is set to be the largest hydroelectric dam in Africa. A total of ten countries depend on the Nile and it’s White Nile and Blue Nile tributaries, according to Foreign Policy’s “River of the Dammed”, but the current dispute revolves around the Blue Nile with Egypt and Ethiopia (Harb). For Ethiopia, this increasing supply in energy could present a chance for large agricultural and industrial growth, however, other regional actors are not too pleased with the project. Most notable of these is Egypt, which depends strongly on the flow of the Nile for agricultural and water-consumption needs.
The conflict between Ethiopia and Egypt is layered heavily with history and regional politics, stretching all the way back to colonial agreements in the 1930s signed by the United Kingdom. These colonial agreements favor Egypt, at the time occupied by the British, and gave Egypt the unequivocal right to veto any projects that might disrupt the flow of the Nile. However, regional power balances have been shifting as population predictions “for 2050 put Egypt’s…populations well below those in some of the eight other countries in the initiative (Harb).” At a glance, it seems as though Ethiopia may be trying to shift the hegemony of Egypt to itself and even the timing of the 2011 announcement is suspicious of this. In 2011, the Egyptian Revolution was in full swing and many observers suspect that the timing “was intended to take advantage of the more powerful nation’s confused political state at a time when the issue of who controls the Nile [was] heating up (“Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam”).” Ethiopia has already shown that they do not intend to have a multipolar system within the region when the Ethiopian ambassador to the United States tweeted on February 26th, “Ethiopia will never sign on an agreement that will surrender its right to use the Nile River” This resolve is based on the fact that Ethiopia’s Lake Tana is the source of 85% of the Nile river’s waters (“Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam”). Ethiopia’s increased resolve also comes as Egypt’s regional power wanes and as “Egypt’s economy is currently woefully underperforming (Harb).”
Up until this point, tensions between Egypt and Ethiopia have been on an uncomfortable simmer while both countries try to negotiate a bargaining range on how many billion cubic meters of water each country will receive from the river flow. With a reversion outcoming looming on the horizon, the question remains what strategies of confrontation each country will adopt. “River of the Dammed” by Imad K. Harb suggests Egypt will respond militarily just “to show Egyptians that their armed forces are looking out for people’s interests” despite the lack of reward military action would bring. Another likely outcome is coercive diplomacy on the side of Ethiopia as Ethiopia is very aware of their leverage over Egypt and has already wielded the upper hand in refusing to show up to recent negotiations. The ideal outcome, though, would involve international mediation and de-escalation (Harb). What might actually happen is a different story altogether and only time will tell as the dam reaches 70% completion and intends to be filled this coming summer (“Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam”).