German Chancellor Merkel wins third term

Ash

TNPer
From the AP report:

"BERLIN -- Chancellor Angela Merkel led her conservatives to a stunning victory in Germany's election Sunday, a personal triumph that cements her position as Europe's most powerful leader. However, she will need to reach out to center-left rivals to form a new government after her coalition partner crashed out of Parliament.

Merkel's Union bloc scored its best result in 23 years to put her on course for a third term, winning 41.5 percent of the vote and finishing only five seats short of an absolute majority in the lower house.

The 59-year-old benefited from a strong economy and low unemployment that have helped keep her personal popularity sky-high - a contrast with the string of leaders who have lost their jobs in other European countries since the continent's debt crisis erupted three years ago. A new coalition probably won't result in any major shifts in German policy, though it could bring a slightly softer tone to managing the crisis.

Merkel, Germany's chancellor since 2005 and the de facto leader of the European crisis response that has mixed aid with austerity, told supporters it was "a super result." She wouldn't immediately speculate about the shape of the next government, but made clear she plans to serve a full term.

"I see the next four years in front of me and I can promise that we will face many tasks, at home, in Europe and in the world," Merkel said during a television appearance with other party leaders.

Despite the scale of her win, governing isn't likely to get easier for Merkel.

Her partners of choice, the pro-business Free Democrats, won only 4.8 percent of the vote. They fell short of the 5 percent needed to win seats in Parliament for the first time in Germany's post-World War II history, paying the price for frequent governing infighting and their failure to secure tax cuts they pledged before going into government four years ago.

Merkel looks likely to end up leading either a "grand coalition" government with the center-left Social Democrats of defeated challenger Peer Steinbrueck - reviving the alliance that ran Germany in her first term - or, less likely, with the environmentalist Greens.

Either way, several weeks of difficult negotiations are expected.

"The ball is in Merkel's court," said Steinbrueck, a former finance minister under Merkel who has said he won't serve under her again. "She has to get herself a majority."

"Angela Merkel is stronger than ever, also in her party," said Manfred Guellner, the head of the Forsa polling agency. "But governing is going to be odd because she will have to form a `grand coalition' although she is only a few seats away from an absolute majority."

Merkel's conservatives finished far ahead of Steinbrueck's Social Democrats, who won 25.7 percent of the vote - not much better than the post-war low of 23 percent they hit four years ago.

Their Green allies polled a disappointing 8.4 percent, while the hard-line Left Party scored 8.6 percent. But although the three parties on the left together hold a thin parliamentary majority, there's virtually no chance of them governing together.

The Left Party includes heirs of East Germany's former communist rulers, opposes German military deployments abroad and is the only party that voted against Merkel's policies of bailing out debt-troubled European countries in exchange for reforms. The two center-left parties on Sunday renewed promises not to form an alliance with the Left.

"We did not achieve the result we wanted," Steinbrueck told supporters, insisting he wouldn't engage in "speculation" about the next government.

Merkel's conservatives, the Social Democrats and Greens "have largely similar positions" on Europe, said Oscar Gabriel, a political science professor at Stuttgart University. He noted, however, that "there are a few nuances," with the center-left parties more open to limited pooling of European countries' debt something the chancellor has refused to countenance.

A "grand coalition" might result in a somewhat greater emphasis on bolstering economic growth over the austerity that Germany has insisted on in exchange for bailing out economically weak European countries such as Greece.

During the election campaign, Merkel and Steinbrueck clashed over center-left calls for tax increases on high earners and a mandatory national minimum wage. Merkel rejected both ideas, arguing that they would hurt the economy.

All the same, a "grand coalition" is more likely to be to put together than a conservative-Green alliance, which would face wider cultural and political differences.

Green leader Juergen Trittin said of possible negotiations: "I don't think the probability of anything coming out of it is particularly high."

True to her methodical style, Merkel said Sunday she would proceed "step by step" in working toward a new government.

Still, she beamed earlier in the evening as she was greeted by a cheering crowd chanting "Angie! Angie! Angie!" at her party's headquarters.

Merkel pledged that "we will do everything together in the next four years to make them successful years for Germany."

A new anti-euro party, Alternative for Germany, came close to winning the 5 percent support needed to win seats in Parliament on Sunday. The party, which advocates an "orderly breakup" of the eurozone and appeared to have a wider appeal to protest voters on the right, finished with 4.7 percent.

Its leader, Bernd Lucke, said it had "taught the other parties to be scared" and "strengthened democracy in Germany."

Merkel has pursued a hard-nosed course in the euro crisis, insisting on spending cuts and economic reforms in exchange for bailout struggling countries such as Greece. The bailouts haven't been popular, but Germany has largely escaped the economic fallout from the crisis, and Merkel has won credit for that. Europe played only a very limited role in the campaign.

Still, senior Merkel ally Horst Seehofer, the conservative governor of Bavaria, conceded that the government needed to do a better job of explaining its policies. He told ZDF television he had noticed a "communication deficit" on the campaign trail.

There was shocked silence at the Free Democrats' election event as exit polls showed the party slumping below 5 percent of the vote.

Four years ago, the party won nearly 15 percent, its best-ever result; over the past week, it had pleaded for support from Merkel supporters to keep it afloat. Merkel frequently called the outgoing coalition "the most successful government since reunification" 23 years ago, but her own popularity didn't extend to the coalition.

"It's the bitterest, saddest hour of the Free Democratic Party," the party's leader, Vice Chancellor Philipp Roesler, said.

Gabriel, the political scientist, said conservative voters who voted for the Free Democrats in 2009 "returned in droves" to Merkel. The smaller party, which was long the kingmaker of German politics, "isn't considered competent by the voters anymore," he said.

The conservative result was close to an absolute majority because of the rule requiring parties to win 5 percent support to claim seats in the lower house. Many small parties miss that threshold, meaning their votes don't count in the division of seats.

Sunday's result gives the conservative bloc of Merkel's Christian Democratic Union and its Bavaria-only sister, the Christian Social Union, 311 seats in Parliament. The Social Democrats won 192 seats, the Greens 63 and the Left Party 64.

Turnout edged up to 71.5 percent from 70.8 percent four years ago.

____

Associated Press correspondents Frank Jordans, Kirsten Grieshaber, Robert H. Reid and David Rising contributed to this report."

A link to this article can be found here.
 
Germany, as it has been for more than a century, is the economic powerhouse of Europe. As Chancellor, Merkel has been methodical and cautious in her decision-making. This has actually re-emphasized the ascendant role that Germany plays in Europe today, forcing other Eurozone countries in need of financial bailouts to wait until the Germans decide to take action.
 
I have to admit I'm a little jealous that you went there and I haven't yet. When did you go to Berlin?
 
It will be interesting to see what kind of coalition forms from this election. Particularly since the SDP seems to have ruled out a grand coalition, and they have also ruled out a SDP-Green-Left coalition.
 
Unfortunately for the SPD, Merkel left them in a worse position as a result of the last grand coalition they formed with her CDU-CSU. The problem for the SDP is that they have no mandate.

McM - what was the occasion for the visit?
 
Ms. Merkel's party won 311 out of 630 seats - 5 seats short of an outright majority. The German President will ask her to form a government because the CDU-CSU will have the most seats in the next Bundestag. As Jamie pointed out, the SPD is in no hurry to get back into a coalition with Merkel's party. However, it hardly matters because no chancellor has won an outright majority since 1957 and coalitions are common in German politics.

Edit: McM, basically I meant the SPD has no mandate to form the next government.
 
Well the amount of votes they achieved still gives them a limited mandate. But given that they won't former a coalition it is unlikely that they could form government even if they wanted to.
 
Ash:
Germany, as it has been for more than a century, is the economic powerhouse of Europe. As Chancellor, Merkel has been methodical and cautious in her decision-making. This has actually re-emphasized the ascendant role that Germany plays in Europe today, forcing other Eurozone countries in need of financial bailouts to wait until the Germans decide to take action.
Of course you know that the Deutsche Bank essentially is the EEC, at least in terms of who controls the Euro currency. :shifty:

Germany is, of course, the 4th largest economy in the world. Their dent is 85% of GDP as opposed to the US whose debt is 114% of GDP.

Germany leaned the lesson of the Weimar Republic. The US apparently hasn't. Yet.
 
Democratic Donkeys:
Should make that frau chancellor for life, what's the worst that could happen?
Following the disastrous end of the Weimar Republic, Germany's second foray into democracy has been remarkably successful. Angela Merkel's chancellorship began in 2005 and is not the longest in recent German history. The first post-war chancellor of the Federal Republic, Konrad Adenauer of the CDU-CSU, served for fourteen years from 1949 to 1963. Helmut Kohl, also of the CDU-CSU, served for sixteen years from 1982 to 1998.
 
Well, even tough Merkel's party won, it doesn't mean she'll be the next Chancellor. It seems like 'die Linke', a minor party that made it in the parliament wants to form a coalation with the SPD, the other major party next to the CDU, and the Green party. With that they'd have the majority in the parliament and thus, the SPD's canidate would become the chancellor.
Well, that's theoretically, in fact that's rather unlikely.
It seems that the CDU will reign together with the SPD, and since the CDU had a higher percentage than the SPD, that really would make Merkel the chancellor.

This would be the last term she's allowed to be the chancellor, since noone is allowed to rule more than 12 years straight.
We once had a chancellor that ruled for 16 years, Helmut Kohl, but that was because of the unification.


So, in 4 years, we will have finally have a change in power.
 
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