TNN Election Watch, Judicial Elections - September 6th to September 11th
Emerging from the stupor of the Summer Slump, it is election season once again in TNP. The Ministry of Communications is proud to present the latest edition of its ElectionWatch Programme. Here's some background if you don't already know what ElectionWatch is:
ElectionWatch will feature liveblogging coverage of the election, with updates provided at intermittent intervals (frequency of updates wholly depends on influx of votes) by our two amazing presenters, @New Charles and myself. This will include tally counts, analysis of voter trends, and much more. As the title suggests, this edition of Election Watch is dedicated to the Judicial elections. So sit back, relax, and check back every 12 hours (or so). Before I forget to mention it: interviews with the candidates standing for election will be POSTED HERE! Stay tuned for those.
Finally, please refrain from posting in this thread, as it is dedicated to the coverage itself. If you have any thoughts to share -- whether it's your two cents about the election or anything else -- feel free to DM myself or New Charles. We always welcome contributors with open arms.
ELECTIONWATCH RACE ALERTS Isenoka: It's been almost 48 hours since the polling booth's floodgates first opened. In typical TNP fashion, the opening salvo has come in the form of a tidal wave of voters making landfall. That is to say, 44 ballots have been cast -- as of the time of writing. In comparison, only 44 ballots were cast the last time around. Whether the upswell in turnout means anything at all is yet to be seen. Here's how the situation is looking on the SECOND DAY of the Battle of the Highest Court in All of TNP.
In The Race For Court Justice #1...
Unsurprisingly, incumbent Chief Justice Pallaith is romping to victory with an impressive 67.5% of the vote to his name. Juxtaposed against his May vote tally (76.92%), however, it seems rather small. Despite both elections having the same number of prize-fighters in the ring the vote share is much more evenly distributed -- even if, all things considered, Pallaith still boasts a lion's share of the votes. In the May election, the only candidates to win above a tenth of the total vote was Chipoli and Abstain, who managed to reel in 6 votes and 5 votes respectively; Josi, St. George, and Abstain have all surpassed this amount. Despite the contest for 2nd place going down to the wire between the aforementioned trio, it appears to be good tidings for both Josi and St. George; the opposite for Abstain. In recent memory, the Abstain vote invariably claimed second place; however, this time may not be the case.
At the end of the day, however, it goes without saying that in the past three elections, the Battle for Court Justice #1's seat has amounted to referenda on Pallaith's legal pedigree. The near-unanimity shown in these votes of confidence for Pallaith makes sense, though. Pallaith's record in the court -- among many other records he has in TNP -- speaks for itself: Pallaith's name appears 23 times in the Court Rulings Index. A jack of all trades and a master of seemingly all, Pallaith has deservedly earned himself another term on TNP's highest court. Even if the projection is a tad premature, the consensus is that Pallaith will sail to re-election for a whopping 11th (non-consecutive) term as Court Justice (presumably Chief Justice, again). Another notch in Pallaith's crown. In The Race For Court Justice #2...
Despite the four candidates (formerly four, now three) looking like flotsam and jetsam washed ashore by the tidal wave of Pallaith's margins in the previous race, the opposite holds true in this one.
Prior to Chipoli withdrawing from the race entirely, the incumbents (himself and Skaraborg) found themselves in the unenviable position of trailing their (potential) dethroners by ~5-6 votes. Whilst it was not an insurmountable gap to close, it was very much a gap they wished they had for themselves. Had Chipoli not bowed out, both he and Skaraborg would have been pitted against each other for survival. As our table clearly demonstrates (prior to Chipoli's withdrawal), we could have ascertained with complete confidence that at least one of the incumbents (if not both) would not return to the bench.
Whilst it is still within the realm of possibility that Pallaith is the only incumbent to be re-elected, it would be patently wrong to write Skaraborg off for good. If anything, Chipoli's withdrawal has given him the proverbial lifebuoy to stay afloat -- and, more importantly, remain in the fight. The question of whether or not Skaraborg will be re-elected will be answered in the battle for the spot of CJ #3 -- as the vote count stands, Skaraborg will be eliminated due to the race going to a second-round run-off.
In the event that no candidate wins a 50% majorityof the vote (as is the case right now), our estimations show that St. George will clinch the run-off -- albeit by a margin a bit too close for comfort. Only two votes separate St. George and Josi (20 and 18 respectively); and with three more days to go, the pendulum could easily swing in either direction. As it stands, however, St. George is the heir presumptive to the throne vacated by Chipoli. In The Race For Court Justice #3...
Last but not least, in the race for CJ #3, Skaraborg is currently 7.7 percentage points ahead of Josi. This disparity in the PV difference, however, belies the fact that Josi is following not too far behind, with only three votes separating the two. Interestingly enough, if we were to dissect the coalition currently putting Skaraborg across the finish line, we find the following:
- Among voters who ranked Pallaith as their 1st preference, 13 ranked Skaraborg ahead of Josi; 7 ranked the latter ahead of the former (only including ballots that ranked both Josi and Skaraborg). Meanwhile, excluding that criterion (i.e. considering all ballots that ranked either Josi or Skaraborg), 17 ranked Skaraborg ahead of Josi; 9 ranked the latter ahead of the former.
- Skaraborg is the main beneficiary of St. George clinching a victory in the race for CJ #2. After all, 11 of St. George's votes go directly into the pocket of Skaraborg, whereas only 5 go to Josi.
From this we can deduce that St. George's CJ #2 coalition, once their man had been ferried into safe harbor, more often than not also supported Skaraborg. The same also applies with Pallaith's voters, as an overwhelming majority of them (17-9) flocked to the vanguard of Skaraborg's campaign. Additionally, circling back to the battle for CJ #2, we see that voters who ranked Pallaith first went 11-7-8 for St. George, Josi, and Skaraborg respectively.
As a result, going into round three, those Pallaith-St. George voters wind up going 9-2 for Skaraborg and Josi respectively. Two voters who pledged allegiance to St. George in the first round also preferred Skaraborg to Josi; as such, we can see how 11 of St. George's votes in the battle for CJ # 2 went to Skaraborg, whilst only 5 went to Josi. That being said, Josi still has the benefit of time, thereby making a dark horse comeback not unlikely. (Election Watch's decisions, statements, and commentary are in no way affiliated or endorsed by the Election Commission. The authority to declare official Election winners is vested solely in the Election Commission.)
Even if they don't win this time Josi had a good campaign and did their best! When I nominated them, they seemed to be (and still are) one of the best candidates for the job i'm proud of them for running. It's sometimes a scary to run in an election especially in a region as notable as this one, whether or not you win Josi you have my full support.
Hello, Citizens of TNP!
This post will be rather short compared to the last one, (thank you Ise for writing that), as not much has changed at the time of writing. Anyway, on with the vote tallies! Pallaith
Pallaith, the seemingly favored candidate by the people, has expanded his lead since the last update, with his share of votes now amassing to 31 total votes, or 68.89% in total, an impressive amount indeed, but to be expected with his level of experience in the judicial position. St George The votes haven't changed much here, as since the last update, St. George has received no new first-choice votes in the last 12(ish) hours; however, he has indeed received two second preference nominations, which is a good amount for the 5 votes received in the time. He is in the lead for 2nd justice by ONE vote, so it is neck and neck at this time! Skaraborg While Skaraborg did not receive any first or second preference nominations, they, funnily enough, got nominated for every single 3rd preference out of all 5 votes. This pushes them to the strongest contender for 3rd justice, with 56.25%. Josi
In the time since the last post, Josi has amassed one more first-choice nomination as well as two more second-preference votes, which is pretty impressive for a newcomer in the race! They are very much still in this, and we are excited to see how it turns out for them! As previously said, St George is ahead by one vote, but it's most certainly not over yet!
Hello TNP! Today we have a special guest, Hyperwolf, who graciously volunteered to write today's ElectionWatch! Thanks again for reading this, and here we are with the update!
With just around 12 hours left before voting concludes, the vote tallies have mostly solidified, barring any unexpected last minute vote swaps or new votes.
For Court Justice #1, Pallaith's lead ahead of the other candidates remains strong, with a 24 vote gap between him and the current second place. The three other candidates, Josi, St George, and Skaraborg, have all picked up a modest number of votes. Seeing that there was no net change in the votes since our last post, Pallaith will most likely keep this very strong lead and coast to another term as Court Justice.
For Court Justice #2, with just three candidates left in the race, the election scene becomes more competitive. Since our last update, Josi has taken the lead from St George by a one vote margin. Skaraborg is currently standing in third place, holding a significant minority of the votes. This is a very small margin, and could still change between now and the end of the election. If the vote tallies do not change significantly, none of the three candidates will get a majority of the vote, and a second round will begin with Skaraborg being eliminated. In the second round, Josi currently holds the advantage with a three vote margin against St George, and is likely to win this race.
For Court Justice #3, the race between the last two candidates remains competitive. Since our last update, where it looked like it would be a race between Skaraborg and Josi, we now have a race between St George and Skaraborg. From the tally , St George has a lead against Skaraborg by four votes. While previously, the results showed Skaraborg beating out Josi, now with a different candidate, St George is likely to beat Skaraborg here.
