The Northern Sentinel

Altmoras

Fastest Man Alive
The Northern Sentinel

Editor-in-Chief: Altmoras

The Northern Sentinel is a private publication focusing on whatever catches the editor's eye, currently all of TNP's media outside of roleplay is state owned, which presents obvious biases and restrictions. Of course I have my own biases, but I'm not very restricted in what I can write on thanks to this being a free region. Expect articles whenever I have something to write about along with the time and inclination to actually write it.


 
Election Center: September 2017

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Citizens of The North Pacific lining up at their polling places.

By Altmoras Prime.


This election is one to watch, and it has managed to become as such without any real struggle for three out of the four available offices. The races for Delegate, Speaker, and Attorney General are all massively one sided, with clear front runners and very little drama. However the race for Vice Delegate makes up for the drab state of the other races in spades. Incumbent Vice Delegate Kaschovia, and Minister of Home Affairs Siwale are locked in contest with each other for the seat of our fair region's vice delegacy, Hong Kong Empire is also running for the seat, but this paper judges a Hong Kong victory to be statistically improbable.

The Vice Delegate race rapidly heated up shortly after both Kasch and Siwale declared their candidacies, with a flurry of discussion occurring between the candidates and interested citizens in both candidates' campaign threads. At the time of writing Siwale and Kasch's campaign threads have been replied to 91 times and read 2337 times, with Siwale's being the more popular of the two. In fact, Siwale's campaign has been more popular in general, as will be seen in the election analysis and predictions lower down in this article.

Of course the Vice Delegacy isn't the only seat up for grabs this cycle, Delegate, Speaker, and Attorney General are all up for grabs. However there are no serious challenges to the incumbents for any of the aforementioned positions, incumbent delegate Pallaith, incumbent speaker Owenstacey, and incumbent Attorney General Darcania are all very successfully running for reelection to their positions with little in the way of serious opposition.

The Sentinel values statistics and evidence based reporting, and as such we have compiled data on the election to support our analysis. There are currently two days left to vote, and there have been seventy two votes cast so far. By compiling the average voter turnout of the last three elections (May '17, Jan '17, and Sep '16) The Sentinel predicts approximately eighty three total votes for this current election, a number that happens to be identical to the number of votes cast in the September 2016 General Election.


For Delegate.

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Given the supermajority of votes incumbent Delegate Pallaith posesses, the Sentinel is confident in projecting a Pallaith Victory for this election.

For Vice Delegate.

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Kasch had a lead in early voters, however once the first private ballots were published publicly Siwale took the lead and has maintained it since. Given that the Sentinel has projected only 11 more voters over the next two days before voting closes, and that incumbent Vice Delegate Kasch would require 9 of these 11 voters to vote for him in order to retake the lead we project the outcome of the Vice Delegate Race to be a Very Likely Siwale Victory.

For Speaker.

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Incumbent Speaker Owenstacey maintains significant electoral support and faced no challenge this election, The Sentinel projects an Owenstacey Victory for Speaker.

For Attorney General.

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Despite having an actual living opponent, incumbent Attorney General Darcania received the exact same amount of electoral support as the unopposed Speaker Owenstacey. Accordingly The Sentinel projects a Darcania Victory for Attorney General.

I won't devote any time to analyzing the situation here, it is up to you the reader to decide what you think about this data and why that is. This has been Altmoras writing for The Northern Sentinel.

Dispatch Version.

 
The Northern Sentinel is conducting an exit poll for the September 2017 General Election in order to better inform our reporting and the public about this election and future elections.

The poll requires you to be signed in to a Google Account to prevent people from filling it out multiple times, however it does not collect your email or any other identifying information about you. You can also edit your response at any time while the poll remains open to responses.

Take the poll here: https://goo.gl/forms/eG1uGU4yVoozTFTC2

I'll probably keep it open for a few days before closing it and presenting the data in an article.
 
Altmoras:
The Northern Sentinel is conducting an exit poll for the September 2017 General Election in order to better inform our reporting and the public about this election and future elections.

The poll requires you to be signed in to a Google Account to prevent people from filling it out multiple times, however it does not collect your email or any other identifying information about you. You can also edit your response at any time while the poll remains open to responses.

Take the poll here: https://goo.gl/forms/eG1uGU4yVoozTFTC2

I'll probably keep it open for a few days before closing it and presenting the data in an article.
We've had 11 responses so far which is great, however I'd like us to be at around 30 responses total in order to get a reasonable sampling of the voting public. So please take the poll if you haven't already. I'll be closing it in 4 days or whenever we get 30 responses, whichever comes sooner.
 
Altmoras:
The Northern Sentinel is conducting an exit poll for the September 2017 General Election in order to better inform our reporting and the public about this election and future elections.

The poll requires you to be signed in to a Google Account to prevent people from filling it out multiple times, however it does not collect your email or any other identifying information about you. You can also edit your response at any time while the poll remains open to responses.

Take the poll here: https://goo.gl/forms/eG1uGU4yVoozTFTC2

I'll probably keep it open for a few days before closing it and presenting the data in an article.
Going to close this poll in a little over 24 hours, get your responses in if you haven't yet.

The Sentinel is also happy to report that all four of our election victor projections were correct. Actual voter turnout fell short of our estimates, but was within one standard deviation of our estimate.
 
The Northern Sentinel: Exit Poll Results

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Over the past five days,citizens of The North Pacific were polled on their opinions of the September election.

By Altmoras Prime.

As a followup to The Northern Sentinel's inaugural issue covering the September 2017 General Election, and to better inform our reporting regarding future elections, we polled TNP citizens regarding who they had supported in previous elections, who they would support in future elections, and some of their overall opinions. Twenty-two self identified, anonymous voters were polled in total, and no responses were thrown out, expletives have been censored however. Furthermore it should be noted that the order of the comments was randomized to protect the identities of respondents, just because someone is the #3 comment in one question does not mean they will be the #3 comment in the next one.

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Did you vote in the September 2017 General Election?:
Yes: 22
No: 0
We also asked respondents if they had or had not voted in previous election that occurred in May 2017 in order to ascertain a light grasp on the seniority of respondents.

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Did you vote in the May 2017 General Election?:
Yes: 15
No: 7
Respondents were also required to give a rating of their overall satisfaction with the governance of The North Pacific. Overall the view was quite favorable, with an average rating of 7.67 and a mode of 8.

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What is your overall level of satisfaction with all levels of government in The North Pacific?:
Mean: 7.67
Median: 8
Mode: 8

Foreign Affairs could be more robust, but the overwhelming influence from one specific adviser makes it hard to counter.

It's too difficult to coup. I have like 7 endorsements and I'm still not delegate yet.

Seems to be functioning well, doesn't seem like we're fully leveraging the advantages we have over other regions though.

Organized.

The cabinet has been quiet and has had no interest in engaging with new players.

How are we the biggest region in the game, and still fail to be relevant internationally compared to GCRs with 1,000 nations less than us. At least our interior is decent.

Midir not AG??? ANGERY

This region is basically a Raven-loving orgy. Absolutely sickening.

Nopr

I like where this is going. More please

One of the major parts of the poll was determining the levels of support each candidate maintains. Those results are below.

For Delegate

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How would you describe your stance in the September 2017 Delegate Election?:
Strongly Behind Pallaith: 13
Moderately Behind Pallaith: 4
Leaning Towards Pallaith: 2
Strongly Behind Kyoki Chudoku: 1
Strongly Behind Skittleyflakes: 1
No Preference: 1

Most experience

He was the only serious candidate.

Because the other candidates are trash.

The flake thing is a turd and Pallaith is just meh.

Good guy, good job.

Change is bad

TBH besides Pallaith no qualified candidates. Was a little disappointed.

He was the incumbent and thus had an extra advantage.

skittley isnt a shill

He had the most experience. I had no idea who Kyoki was prior to the election, and Skittleyflakes is quite immature for the Delegacy.

He didn't screw it up last time

I know him quite well ;)

Pallaith has demonstrated his ability over the previous four months and has presented a robust platform for the next four.

Incumbent Delegate Pallaith enters his second term with 19 of 22 respondents, or 86.4% indicating some degree of support for his reelection. Very similar to the 82.1% of voters who actually voted for him. Pallaith's "base" of voters, ie; those who strongly support him was also quite large at 13 of 22. or 59.1% of respondents. Of course Pallaith cannot run for reelection again unless term limits are abolished, but this base of supporters will likely be well represented backing his policies and voting for a "successor" candidate in January if one emerges.

For Vice Delegate


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How would you describe your stance in the September 2017 Vice Delegate Election?:
Moderately Behind Siwale: 6
Strongly Behind Siwale: 5
Leaning Towards Siwale: 4
Moderately Behind Kasch: 4
Leaning Towards Kasch: 2
No Preference: 1

Judgement call.

Kasch has spent the last four months learning the job after being elected by the supporters of Tomb on a ticket in May. He has peformed rather well given the sharper learning curve than he expected.

Better than the other coices

Well, I am Siwale :P

Was very close between Siwale and Kasch, but activity and timeliness edged Siwale ahead.

New blood, interested in seeing what Siwale would do with the position. He's qualified and seemed eager/hardworking enough. I'd seen what Kasch would do with it for 4 months already, figured get a look at another side.

Terrific term at Home Affairs, the Security Council will benefit from having such a proactive and innovative Vice Delegate.

Siwale realizes what Kasch failed to do, and plans to do it. Kasch doesn't see what he failed to do last term. Hong Kong isn't a viable candidate, so they aren't a good choice either.

Kasch and Siwale had differing views and thus it was hard to decide between both of them. After some dicussion I decided to support Siwale.

Change is bad

He seemed like a better choice than Kasch and Hong Kong.

Kasch is good Siwale is better, I like the push for SC accountability and activity.

Kasch sucks and I have no idea who Hong Kong is.

I support their ideals

Kasch had deficiencies in May and he still has many of them. He was not given the opportunity to be properly vetted in May and when it was done in this election he was lacking. He's improved but he is relying a great deal on his experience at Siwale's expense without adequately addressing the policy differences in their respective campaigns.

The competitiveness of the Vice Delegate race in comparison to the other races is highlighted in polling as far fewer respondents strongly supported any candidate. In the election itself, fresh faced candidate Siwale beat out slightly less fresh faced incumbent Kaschovia to win the office of Vice Delegate. The Siwale victory we saw in the election itself is apparent in the poll as well, however Siwale seems to enjoy greater support from those polled in this poll than he did in the real election. This may indicate that Siwale supporters are more likely than Kasch supporters to have seen this exit poll where it was posted in #magicality-grand-plaza on discord and in this thread on the forum, or it may simply be a side effect of the small sample size of 22 voters.

For Speaker


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How would you describe your stance in the September 2017 Speaker Election?:
Strongly Behind Owenstacey: 12
Moderately Behind Owenstacey: 3
Leaning Towards Owenstacey: 1
No Preference: 6

They have done very good work for the office (I'm biased though)

Who is that

Because there are no other candidates.

Was anyone else running? No.

Owenstacey is a hard worker.

? It's ? easy ? to ? win ? when ? you're ? the ? only ? one ? running. ?

Better than the other coices

He was trained by the best ;) and has been doing a good job. Even without opposition, I imagine he would still win and be my choice.

Owenstacey has done well in the previous term as Speaker and obviously was the only choice.

No opponents.

Owen is just another point of this region's s****y governance.

Owenstacey ran unopposed, and the majority of both exit respondents and actual election voters support his continued occupancy of that position.

For Attorney General


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How would you describe your stance in the September 2017 Attorney General Election?:
Strongly Behind Darcania: 16
Moderately Behind Darcania: 3
Strongly Behind Midir: 2
No Preference: 1

Midir is a complete and utter a******e.

He is competent and he had no serious challenger.

Nobody wants to be AG, glad Darc can take the bullet.

He's the only serious candidate. Even with competition he would still be the best choice.

best candidate

I don't like Darc

Both suck.

Better than the other coices

He’s the incumbent, and his opponent gave no good reason not to re-elect Darcania

Darcania know what he is doing!

They have served to a high standard in this position

I'm biased but also Midir isn't exactly trust-inspiring.

Because the other candidates are trash.

In terms of raw support, Darcania is the overall most popular candidate in all categories. Despite having an actual living, breathing opponent, Darcania saw as much strong support as unopposed Speaker Owenstacey saw total support.

Looking to the future

In order for the Sentinel to make informed predictions and projections about future elections respondents were polled on their satisfaction with the overall field of candidates in the September 2017 election, as well as on who they would like to see run for election in the future.

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Are you satisfied with the overall amount and quality of candidates for this election?:
Somewhat: 9
No: 7
Yes: 6

The region needs someone completely new, before it's too late. Even Cormac would at least fix things up a bit.

Other than the VD election, I think there was only one legitimate candidate per position. I still feel we got the right people though.

Happy with the Vice Delegacy election, nothing else. No real competition or debate of policy ideas. The Delegate was elected by default.

The elections for the office of Speaker lacked alternate candidates. The elections for the offices of Delegate and Attorney General, while having alternate candidates, were characterised by strong incumbents against long-shot (and joke) campaigns, with no serious alternative.

I would have liked to have seen more choice for Vice Delegate and Speaker.

Better competition would require more candidates. The candidates we did have were strong however, so I'm not sure the outcome would have been different even with more candidates. It is nice to have real choice, so the real disappointing thing is we didn't have more quality candidates, not just more candidates in general.

The Vice-Delegate election is the only election that has multiple viable candidates.

there wasnt much comp for speaker

It's a forum popularity contest. Not a "Best choice" deal

Would have liked to see more qualified candidates running (imo).

Very competitive VD race and decent delegate race.

VD race was solid, the other ones were coronations.

Only a minority (27.3%) of respondents indicated that they were satisfied with the overall amount and quality of candidates for this election, however not a single race saw significant levels of abstentions or Re-open Nominations votes. As the comments indicate and this paper has previously observed, it is likely that the large amount of somewhat satisfied or not satisfied voters were dissatisfied with the lack of competition for every position other than Vice Delegate.

This exit poll also asked respondents who they would like to see run for the four offices that are up for grabs in the General Elections in the future, those responses are enclosed below. It should be noted that responses that didn't name specific individuals weren't counted for anything since these questions specifically requested names of specific individuals.

Who would you like to see run for Delegate next election?
McMasterdonia: 4
Lord Ravenclaw: 4
Kasch: 3
Siwale: 2
Sil Dorsett: 2
Zyvetskistaahn: 1
Sankami: 1
Altmoras: 1
r3naissanc3r: 1
Darcania: 1
SillyString: 1

Who would you like to see run for Vice Delegate next election?
Lord Ravenclaw: 3
Great Bights Mum: 2
McMasterdonia: 2
Darcania: 2
Sankami: 2
r3naissanc3r: 2
ABC: 1
SillyString: 1
Lord Lore: 1
Owenstacey: 1
Sil Dorsett: 1
Sanctaria: 1
Abbey: 1
Siwale: 1
Kasch :1
Pallaith: 1
Tomb: 1

Who would you like to see run for Speaker next election?
Owenstacey: 4
Crushing Our Enemies: 3
ABC: 3
Abbey: 3
Zyvetskistaahn: 2
Pallaith: 1
Atlae: 1
Sillystring: 1
Siwale: 1

Who would you like to see run for Attorney General next election?
Darcania: 2
Sir Fawkes: 1
TlomzKrano:1
Gracius Maximus: 1
SillyString: 1
Plembobria: 1

Since this was a free form text response question there was quite a bit of variety in the responses themselves. With that said though, if you are one of the many people named perhaps you should begin considering your run, even if only to provide the competition people desire. This has been Altmoras writing for The Northern Sentinel.

Dispatch Version.
 
Someone appears to have misjudged how much influence I have around here and how popular I am.

"This region is basically a Raven-loving orgy. Absolutely sickening."
 
Lord Ravenclaw:
Someone appears to have misjudged how much influence I have around here and how popular I am.

"This region is basically a Raven-loving orgy. Absolutely sickening."
I know. I have been here a short-time, yet haven't seen an orgy.

Am I missing the full TNP experience? :lol:
 
Lord Ravenclaw:
Someone appears to have misjudged how much influence I have around here and how popular I am.

"This region is basically a Raven-loving orgy. Absolutely sickening."
Interesting. It won't quote without an additional character in front of Ravenclaw.
 
The ones which are the same as usernames are gone.
 
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